Hurley's Picks: Super Bowl Rematch Highlights Week 3's NFL Slate
BOSTON (CBS) -- It's pretty crazy that almost one year ago, the shocking scandal that threatened the sanctity of the NFL involved a grown man being mean and rude to another grown man. It was just last November when the Richie Incognito "bullying" scandal dominated the news cycle, as media pundits and talk radio callers revolted against the lineman's rude behavior, and it went on for weeks. The public relentlessly criticized the team and the league, and eventually Incognito was suspended.
With all that's going on this season, it sure seems like the NFL would love to have that problem again.
It's been a truly ridiculous season in the NFL this year, from Ray Rice to Greg Hardy to Adrian Peterson, and it's been dizzying if you've tried to keep up. Fortunately, it seems as though public outcries and threats from sponsors has forced the NFL and teams to do the right thing and keep these players off the field. The fact that it took so much outside pressure to get these decision-makers to prevent the players from missing an almighty football game is a bit embarrassing, but hey, we got it done.
It also feels almost dirty to say things like "I just want to focus on the games," because then you sound like an insensitive caveman who only cares about silly games. But we need NFL games in order to provide us with a distraction from the NFL, so let's jump right into this week's picks.
(Home team in caps; Wednesday lines)
ATLANTA (-6.5) over Tampa Bay
Last week's Thursday night "football game" was a brutal reminder of how terrible those muckfests can be. There's a reason that games are a week apart -- teams need time to game-plan and practice and install plays, and when you cut their preparation time in half, the result is a big old discombobulated mess.
And hey, coincidentally "Big Old Discombobulated Mess" is just another way to say "Tampa Bay Buccaneers."
Ridiculous Quote From Last Week's Picks: "I know Matt Ryan's career stats on the road stink, but a clear, sunny day on artificial turf shouldn't be too much of an obstacle."
Note: Ryan completed 55 percent of his passes for 231 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. That boy hates fresh air.
San Diego (+2) over BUFFALO
There is a massive, massive possibility that this could be a huge letdown game for San Diego. The Chargers just knocked off the defending champs and the best team in football, and now they are going to ... upstate New York. I'll admit that I'm a little worried that the Chargers won't be able to match the emotion level of the Bills, especially because all those crazy Buffalonians are extra amped that their team isn't moving, thereby creating a significant home-field advantage for the Bills.
But I also think the Chargers are better at football than the Bills, and that's usually what's more important.
RQFLWP: "Don't watch [the Dolphins-Bills game]. Life is precious, and we only have so many hours in our lives. The three hours you spend watching Bills-Dolphins is simply a bad allocation of your time on earth."
Note: That game was actually decent. And yes, I recognize that I failed to take my own advice. What are you gonna do?
Dallas (-1) over ST. LOUIS
I honestly have nothing to say about these two teams, so here's a picture of a crazy hat:
What a hat!!
Washington (+7) over PHILADELPHIA
Nick Foles has very clearly run out of whatever magic pixie dust he had last year, and it's possible that the Redskins got better with Kirk Cousins taking over for the injured Robert Griffin. I feel terrible that he has become, always, "The Injured Robert Griffin," but hopefully when he comes back, he'll be at full health, because "The Fully Healthy Robert Griffin" was a fun show to watch.
But for now, Cousins looks good running that offense, and with Philly on a short week, the points look great.
Indianapolis (-7) over JACKSONVILLE
Coming off a national TV loss at home is tough, unless you're going up against Jacksonville. Impressively, the Jaguars already rank 32nd in rushing yards, 28th in passing yards and 29th in total defense. But at least they have that pool.
NEW ORLEANS (-10) over Minnesota
Whoa, baby. The Saints are about to unleash two weeks' worth of frustration on the Adrian Peterson-less Vikings. It's going to get ugly in the Superdome. The Vikings have dealt with enough this week; maybe they should save themselves the trouble and not even make the trip to New Orleans.
CINCINNATI (-6.5) over Tennessee
It's no small thing that the Bengals might be without A.J. Green, the man who accounts for 24 percent of Andy Dalton's passing yards this season and accounted for 33 percent of the QB's yards last season. It's also no small thing that they'll be without Vontaze Burfict, who accounted for 16 percent of the team's total tackles last year. But I think the Bengals are for real this year. Well, as close to "for real" as a team coached by Marvin Lewis can be. I still foresee some January ineptitude in the Bengals' future, but they shouldn't have any issues with much lesser teams at home this season.
The Bengals are also 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 games on home turf. The Titans are going to throw a wrench in that machine?
Baltimore (-1) over CLEVELAND
It was hard to not catch the Cleveland Fever last weekend, when the Browns improbably took down the Saints in what was the big upset of the weekend. Actually, check that, Cleveland Fever doesn't sound like something worth celebrating. Anyway, it was a cool moment to watch. Good for the Browns.
But I think that was their Super Bowl this year. Sorry.
RQFLWP: "I do think it would be impossible for Drew Brees and the Saints to start the season 0-2, considering they're playing against Cleveland in Week 2. It's really that simple."
Note: I actually heard from a very polite Browns fan about this statement. He took issue with my pick, but he was really nice about it, so you know what? I'm glad to be wrong. (No I'm not.) (I'm just rationalizing.)
DETROIT (-2.5) over Green Bay
This game is definitely the pick of the litter among the 1 p.m. games, and I feel that no matter which way you go, you're going to end up feeling dumb by the time the game ends. On the one hand, you've got a Lions team that dominated in Week 1 and then got absolutely steamrolled in Week 2. On the other hand, you have a Packers team that got blown out by the champs on opening night (no shame in that) but also basically lost to the Jets. ("Basically lost" is a new stat I'm keeping this year. It's when the opposing team's offensive coordinator calls a timeout just as the ball is snapped for the play that leads to the game-tying touchdown. The Packers currently lead the league in "basically lost" games.)
I'll put my trust into the team that looked exceptional at home in Week 1, but admittedly, this one's a little dicey. I am prepared to feel stupid. (I'm used to it by now.)
NEW ENGLAND (-14.5) over Oakland
I think I would have taken New England -50 this week.
Houston (-2) over NEW YORK GIANTS
Ben McAdoo's offense is off to a lousy start. What better way to fix it than have J.J. Watt come to town to terrorize your quarterback?
ARIZONA (+3) over San Francisco
It is with deep regret and sadness that I report that I have officially canceled my membership to the Colin Kaepernick Fan Club. It is true that I was the final remaining member of the once-popular group, and yes, it got lonely at times being the lone Kaepernick supporter while the entire country was mocking his terrible decision-making and ill-timed interceptions. But what can I say? I liked the guy. I liked when he made plays with his legs and I liked when he heaved up 75-yard bombs. He was fun.
But I'm officially out on Colin. Last week, when he was taking delay of game penalties and mismanaging the clock and was the final straw.
SEATTLE (-5.5) over Denver
Oh man oh man oh man oh man oh man oh man oh man oh man this game! So excited for this game! Did you know that there have only been five rematches of the Super Bowl in the following season? Five! The last one was Packers-Patriots in 1997. Hey, that's rare! (Yes, I had to read Gregg Easterbrook to get that information, but it was nevertheless interesting.)
It's hopefully a closer contest than what took place in February, but the Seahawks don't lose very often, and they certainly don't lose two in a row very often. They also don't lose at home. Russell Wilson also inexplicably has otherworldly stats when he's opposed by great quarterbacks. Everything's tilting in Seattle's favor.
RQFLWP: "You don't want to get cute and start going against Seattle right now. They look unbeatable."
Note: I'm not always OK with getting burned by going the safe route, but I am in this case. There's no shame in riding the Seahawks' dominance as far as it could take me. I also was completely unaware that Antonio Gates was in the mood to have his first three-touchdown game since 2005. Did not see that one coming.
Kansas City (+4.5) over MIAMI
In what world can you lose by 19 to the Bills and then be a 4-point favorite the following week? I know Jamaal Charles is a huge loss, but come on now. Take these points and run with them.
CAROLINA (-3) over Pittsburgh
The Steelers are terrible.
RQFLWP: "The Ravens are going to get smoked [by the Steelers]."
Note: I mistakenly assumed two things about this game. First, I thought (silly me) that the Steelers had actually improved a bit from their wretched 2013 iteration. Silly me. Secondly, I thought after a decade in the league, Ben Roethlisberger might have established some sort of internal clock. But nope, there's Big Ben, standing still, holding on to the ball for 30 minutes, taking 12-yard sacks and absolutely killing drive after drive.
Chicago (+2.5) over NEW YORK JETS
So I've gone 8-8 in both weeks thus far. It's not good, no, but as I say a lot every September, there's a storm to weather here. It's impossible to have a full grasp on who's good, who's bad, who's great and who's terrible until there's about a month of a sample size to assess. So while I am hardly proud of my .500 record this year, I vow that it's sure to improve as the temperatures start to drop. I would just really, really, really appreciate not going 8-8 again this week.
RQFLWP: "I don't feel nearly the same about Jay Cutler and the Bears [as I do about Drew Brees and the Saints as well as Aaron Rodgers and the Packers]."
Note: Forgotten rule of NFL picks -- never doubt Smokin' Jay Cutler.
Last week: 8-8
Season: 16-16
Read more from Michael Hurley by clicking here, or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
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