BOSTON (CBS) – The headline with regards to this weekend’s storm would be some snow accumulation this weekend but a major storm remains unlikely.
A very complex setup in the atmosphere continues to confuse our computer models, but we are finally starting to hone in on what we hope will be a final solution.
Some precipitation will likely be falling in parts of New England for almost the entire weekend, but in the end, it probably won’t add up to a whole lot.
Our main concern remains the development of an ocean storm off the Mid-Atlantic Friday. It will eventually become a very large and powerful storm in the northern latitudes and we are just catching some of its development as it passes by. How quickly it develops and how close to our coastline are two very critical questions that we are trying to answer.
Here are my current thoughts.
Light snow could break out as early as Saturday morning. This would be a very early burst out ahead of the main storm and likely not amount to much more than a dusting to an inch in some areas well inland.
Closer to the coastline this burst of precipitation will likely come as either a rain-snow mix or just plain rain during Saturday morning. Again, nothing heavy and not enough to cause any significant traveling issues.
The “main event” arrives Saturday night and early on Sunday. This is when the developing ocean storm will make its closest pass to the coast of southern New England.
Right now it looks like about 2-to-4 inches of snow are possible near the coast and as far west as I-495. This round would be all snow even down to the Cape.
Farther north and west of I-495, the snow would be lighter, only an inch or two likely.
IF the storm develops a bit quicker and closer to southern New England, slightly higher snow totals are still possible.
The 2-to-4 inches area could get nudged up to 3-to-6 inches or 4-to-8 inches, but that seems to be the absolute ceiling for this event.
There is also a chance that the development of the storm happens too far east. In that case, the majority of the snow would fall over Cape Cod and the open ocean. But for now, our official forecast remains 2-to-4 inches Saturday night into Sunday morning for most of eastern Massachusetts.
Clearly this is a tricky forecast with lots of moving and changing atmospheric parts.
You will want to stay tuned to updates later today and tomorrow.
You can follow Terry on Twitter at @TerryWBZ.