Despite a cold frontal passage today, the immediate post-frontal air mass will be summer-like with high temperatures reaching the lwr-middle 70’s in many locations, with the exception of the Cape and Islands where winds off the water will keep temperatures closer to 70. Average highs this time of year are around 60 degrees, so we’ll be 15 degrees above normal to start the weekend! Southwest winds will be breezy at 10-20mph.
Today, the feel of fall returns with a wind shift back to the NW. Early morning showers along with the front have pushed of the coast with rapidly clearing skies following in for the morning hours into the afternoon as skies.Skies will become mostly sunny with a chilly breeze from Canada which will help to keep temps about 15-20 degrees cooler than yesterday…so don’t forget the warmer clothes.
Clouds will be in place through about 10 or 11 AM…before a sharp clearing line will be working towards the coast by lunchtime. Temps have been cooling behind the front this morning into the 50’s and Lwr 60’s. Once the sunshine comes out in full this afternoon, temps will give another run towards 70-72 degrees, but will start to fall later in the day with the lowering sun angles and breezy NW winds pushing in the much cooler air from Canada which will settle in tonight.
Periodic light showers will be shifting to SE MA and the Cape for the Afternoon where it will remain a bit damp. It is a dry day in Boston points, N & W. Clearing skies with drier air will try to push to the coast but it will not be easy. Sunshine in western New England should arrive near Worcester by 2 or 3 PM. It will take the entire day for the clearing line t reach the coast unfortunately. Winds are lighter today out of the NNE. With clouds and cool wind off the water…60’s and Lwr 70’s at the beaches, Lwr-mid 70’s inland where we will see some increasing afternoon sunshine.
Our computer models continue in a westward shift with the track of Tropical Storm this morning. Yesterday, models leaned towards taking the storm into the FL panhandle. Today, they seem to be favoring a track into Louisiana. There is still a great deal of uncertainty with the eventual outcome of landfall…somewhere between Pensacola FL and New Orleans Early Wed AM. How strong? Cat 2 likely. 100+ mph…but could be stronger depending upon the track and the depth of the warm water the storm tracks over. Cat 3 can not be ruled out. Storm Surge will be dependent upon the strength of the storm as seas/waves become bigger with deeper pressure falls and stronger winds. Where ever this storm hits it will come with significant storm surge flooding and damaging winds. All of this happening on the anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. The path into New Orleans is the worst direction a hurricane can take for the city 6 feet under sea level. Levees could be tested again. All we can do is hope for a shift to the East…but then Mobile, Biloxi and Pensacola are the target. Answers to strength, track, surge, impact will come in the coming days. For now…all we can do is monitor.
One more day in the heat and humidity before we get a welcome break in the summer weather and a return to a more seasonal and comfortable airmass. A warm front has pushed off the coast this morning with winds shifting to the SW. Hazy sunshine will help to spike temps into the 80’s near 90 by midday.
That dry air will begin to erode some of the low cloud cover this afternoon…with breaks of sun forming inland. The front will stall as it approaches SE MA…so clouds will remain pretty locked in at the coast for much of the day. With light onshore winds….expect temps to remain in the 50’s with Lwr-mid 60’s farther inland away from the cooler water temps.
This winter was one of the warmest on record, but now that spring is here, many are wondering how long this warm weather will last. Historically, warm winters like this can be followed by mild springs.
SW flow aloft up the east coast is steering a significant plume of moisture up the East coast today but the rain is mostly moving offshore. Showers will come awfully close to Nantucket, but the rest of the region will remain dry and cloudy under a blanket of overcast which has moved in for the rest of the day. Highs will be in the Lwr 40’s. A thinner overcast in the north and west where there will be some partial sunshine
New England has the best chance for accumulating snowfall. Along and north of the Pike will likely be in the best snow growth regions for substantial accumulations..track dependent. If everything comes together just right… some areas could see up to 6 inches of snow or more…but let’s just rest on this for now. It has not exactly been a good winter for snow storms.