Massarotti: Should We Make Anything Of Tom Brady's Second-Half 'Decline' In Last 3 Seasons?
BOSTON (CBS) -- Tom Brady's mortality is obviously a sensitive subject, so let's honestly try to tread lightly here. This is not about whether Brady can defy time. He already has. This is really about Bill Belichick, what he sees and believes with regard to a quarterback that is, indisputably, the greatest of all-time.
Earlier this year, we cited a report from Cian Fahey of footballoutsiders.com in which he suggested that Brady's play – and, more specifically, arm strength – slipped in the second half of last season. Maybe there was some truth there and maybe there wasn't. But we should all be able to agree (generally) that the Patriots have had to manage Brady's health later in the season with each advancing year, which doesn't make him different from any aging player in the NFL.
Remember when Brady ultimately accepted the four-game suspension handed down by Roger Goodell for DeflateGate? It was reported that the Patriots privately believed the suspension could help Brady be sharper later in the year, precisely because it shortened the season and lessened the overall wear and tear on him.
With all of that in mind, here's what we did: we went back and drew a line smack dab in the middle of Brady's 2016 season – after Week 11 (he played just 12 regular season games, with the Pats getting a bye in Week 9). Here is how Brady performed in the various stages of the season – first six games, last six games, playoffs:
Before you get all defensive, we're not going to make any judgments here. We're just going to give you numbers.
Obviously, Brady's overall quarterback rating went down as the year progressed, but that doesn't mean he's slipping. There are lots of potential reasons for declining passer rating – like weather, quality of competition, injuries. And it's impossible to take one sample and make a definitive judgment without knowing the track record of every quarterback in a similar situation.
For example, have Ben Roethlisberger's numbers followed a similar path in recent years? (He's on the older side and also plays outdoors at home?) What about Eli Manning? That type of research is an exhaustive process that most of us (ok, me) don't have time for, and the truth is that it may not apply anyway.
Again, the question is whether Belichick has seen anything noticeable in Brady's play late in recent seasons because no one else's opinion really matters.
Here's Brady's 2015 season, again split in half:
Again, no judgments here. We'll even introduce another variable: the offensive line, which was a problem for the Patriots all season in 2015. That year, Brady was sacked a whopping 38 times, one of the highest totals of his career. (Last year during the regular season, the number was 15.)
In the last two Super Bowl-winning season, Brady was sacked a total of 36 times during the regular season, two fewer than the 2015 campaign that ended in Denver in the AFC Championship Game.
And that day, against a historically prolific defense, Brady was sacked on four more occasions. The Pats still nearly pulled out a win.
Given that reality, we should agree that Brady took a relative beating in 2015. The numbers seem to reflect it, but Belichick has a far greater grasp on the root causes of things than any of us do.
So, let's not make any judgments (It was between 2015 and 2016 that those private thoughts were reported, which makes sense given the shots Brady took in 2015).
Tell you what: let's look at one more year – the Super Bowl-winning season of 2014. That season, if you remember, the Patriots started slowly in the wake of the decision to trade Logan Mankins, getting their doors blown off at Kansas City in Week 4.
Brady responded in typical Brady fashion, lighting up the league for the next four weeks, during which he threw 14 touchdowns and no interceptions.
Here's the same mechanism we used for 2016 and 2015, but for the 2014 season:
Do those numbers mean anything? Maybe yes, maybe no. Again, we'll let you decide.
But Brady was as consistent in the three postseason games of 2014 as he has been in arguably any postseason of his career, posting game-by-game quarterback ratings of, in order, 99.3, 100.4, 101.1 (in the Super Bowl).
Two of those games were played in Foxboro. The last was played against the Seattle Seahawks. The cynic (ahem – ok, that's judgmental) would argue that Brady was better at the end of 2014 than he was at the beginning.
Is there a point in all of this? Well, yes. And all that really matters here is the opinion of Belichick. But if there has been, is or will be any sign of age by Brady, can we agree that it is most likely to come in the later part of the season?
Brady's greatest strength during his career has always been his sheer force of will, and that seemingly (and incredibly) remains undeterred. Motivationally speaking, the man is a freak.
Even if his overall postseason wasn't great last year, Brady was still better than average and he had the guts, heart and mental toughness to orchestrate a historic comeback.
Did he benefit from the four-week break at the beginning of the season? Did his performance truly tail off at the end of 2015? Or are we all just looking for an inevitable end that is really nowhere in sight?
Again, only the opinion of Bill Belichick really matters. In the meantime, Jimmy Garoppolo is still here.
