Patriots-Bills Matchups: Will The Sequel Be Better Than The Original?
By Matt Dolloff, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- The Patriots would like to forget about what happened in Week 4 at Gillette Stadium. Practically no one on the team showed up that day. Tom Brady literally didn't show up to the stadium. But it's probably for the best that the team has put that debacle behind them and is focusing on beating the Bills just like they focus on any opponent in a given week.
Not that you would expect any different from Bill Belichick's team, but that didn't stop reporters from hearkening back to the Bills' 16-0 win over the Patriots in Week 4, the first home shutout loss of Belichick's tenure in New England.
Just don't expect Belichick to give you a straight answer on that. When asked about whether he views Sunday's game at New Era Field a "revenge" game, he had this to say:
"Every game is its own entity. I don't care about the games that have happened in the past. We've won them, we've lost them. I don't think it matters. What matters is what happens this week. I'm not just saying on Sunday. It matters what happens the week leading up to the week; the preparation. This game will be different than any other game, like it always is. I don't really care about those other games."
Whether or not Belichick really 'cares' about the Week 4 loss will show up on the field on Sunday. If the Patriots blow the Bills' doors off, if they flip the script and pitch a shutout of their own, if they turn in one of their most complete efforts of the season, you will know that they went into Buffalo with a little something extra.
That said, let's have a look at how the player matchups may go in the Patriots-Bills sequel ...
EXPLOIT: Bills run defense. Perhaps Miami's Jay Ajayi skewed things a bit last week, but the Buffalo run defense is reeling after allowing 214 yards to Ajayi on 28 carries in Miami. In total, they allowed 256 rushing yards on 41 total carries (a 6.2-yard average). They plummeted from middle-of-the-pack to 27th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game with 125.
The Patriots eventually had to abandon the run in Week 4, but LeGarrette Blount still averaged just over four yards per carry with 54 yards on 13 attempts. Blount (and the Patriots' blocking in front of him) manhandled the Steelers in Pittsburgh last Sunday, so they showed that they are capable of bringing a strong run game in a tough road environment. The offensive line has really stepped up in the run game in recent weeks, and there are holes to be exploited on Buffalo.
The obvious wild card here is Pro-Bowler Marcell Dareus, who returned to practice on Wednesday for the Bills and has a chance to suit up on Sunday. But it may behoove the Patriots to run Blount up the middle on the Bills' Corbin Bryant and Leger Douzable, who each have an average "run defense" grade of 47.4, according to Pro Football Focus. A grade of 80 or better is rated as "good," so, yeah, 47.4 is decidedly not good.
Even Jerry Hughes (38.7) has been dismal against the run and struggled mightily against Ajayi last Sunday. He mostly failed to shed his blocks and often got caught well behind the play whenever the Dolphins handed it off and he tried to rush the passer.
Don't be surprised if the Patriots try to feed the rock to Blount and run him on Hughes, or between the tackles if Tom Brady and Josh McDaniels can find the right matchups. Ajayi is a similar back to Blount and did most of his damage bursting through the first level of the defense for 10-yard runs; Blount could be a wrecking ball for the Bills defense if he can get the same kind of penetration.
ELIMINATE: LeSean McCoy - or whoever runs the ball. Alright, Patriots. Let's try this again.
I know, "stop the ball carrier" might be the all-time champion of "Captain Obvious" statements. But the Patriots couldn't even do that in Week 4. It really is that simple. They don't need to eliminate any one player or scheme from the Bills so much as they have to eliminate poor tackling from themselves.
Ben Volin's film study for the Boston Globe concluded that the Patriots missed a whopping 17 tackles in that game. Defenders often had themselves in position to make the tackle and simply failed to execute, miserably. Tackling was "one of many" problems that day, as Bill Belichick said in one of his saltiest post-game press conferences ever. The defense especially struggled to bring down LeSean McCoy, who has historically been one of the toughest backs in the league to tackle.
McCoy's status for Sunday is up in the air after he aggravated a hamstring injury against the Dolphins, but even if he's out that probably won't stop Rex Ryan from trying to run the ball against the Patriots. It's also likely that he runs a similar gameplan with quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who completed 27 of 39 passes (69.2 percent) in Week 4.
The Patriots won't suddenly turn the defense loose and leave themselves vulnerable to big plays, because they almost never do. Can Taylor play efficient, mistake-free football for the second straight game against the Patriots? If he does, the Patriots will have to be exponentially better at tackling the ball carrier than they were in the first matchup.
Matt Dolloff is a writer for CBSBostonSports.com. Any opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect that of CBS or 98.5 The Sports Hub. Have a news tip or comment for Matt? Follow him on Twitter @mattdolloff and email him at mdolloff@985thesportshub.com.
