Keller @ Large: Is Trump In Trouble?
BOSTON (CBS) - Six weeks ago, the most respected poll in Wisconsin had Donald Trump leading Ted Cruz by ten points.
Five weeks later, that same poll had him down by ten, as have three of the last seven polls in that primary.
And if he loses Tuesday night, Trump's once seemingly-unstoppable march to the nomination will be in serious trouble, most likely headed for trouble on the convention floor.
How did Trump get here?
After all, those intervening weeks included big wins in major primary states like Florida, victories in mid-western states like Illinois and Missouri, and a rout of Cruz in Arizona.
But while Trump's core support has remained solid, he hasn't grown it, while Cruz has grabbed most of the backers of candidates who've dropped out along the way.
What happened?
It turns out, voters are following the campaign closely. They see how graceful you are or aren't when you lose, not a Trump strong suit. They see how classy you are in victory, which Trump at times has viewed as an opportunity to peddle steaks and wine.
Undecided voters are that way because they still need to be persuaded, and Trump, the master self-marketer, hasn't closed the deal. Even when his mega-rallies were proving too open to protestors and the embarrassing scenes that ensued, he kept on doing them when smaller events would suffice. Pressed for thoughtful policy substance, he has responded with thoughtless ad-libbing. The debates were his best forum; he ended them way too soon.
Campaigns are a chance to showcase judgement and leadership, and Trump has certainly had his ups and downs. If Tuesday night is a downer, look out below.
