Bill Belichick Will Make Peyton Manning Beat Him Deep For Broncos To Beat Patriots
By Matt Dolloff, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- Bill Belichick's defense always starts with eliminating an opposing offense's biggest threat. He makes you beat the Patriots with anyone but your primary weapon(s), and if you can pull that off, hats off to you.
In Sunday's AFC Championship Game between the Patriots and Denver Broncos, Belichick is going to make Denver do what they don't want to do: beat them through the air with Peyton Manning.
No. 18 himself has acknowledged that the Broncos defense, not his passing, has been the catalyst for their success throughout the season all the way through a Divisional round win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. "Our defense has guided us, let's make that clear," he said after the Broncos sealed the win last Sunday.
But that's not going to deter Belichick from taking Manning seriously.
"Peyton is a great player. He's had as, you know, we've had tremendous battles against him through the years," said Belichick. "There isn't a player off our team that I have any more respect for than Peyton Manning, so his preparation, his consistency, his skills, I would never, ever, ever underestimate him under any circumstances."
This is part of why Belichick is so great. He doesn't underestimate anyone. He treats every opponent with the respect that professional athletes and teams deserve. for being, you know, professionals. It's why the Patriots routinely blow the doors off of inferior opponents and sometimes make talented opponents look downright silly. He doesn't scoff at opponents the way the media and fans (myself included) tend to do. (Not sure what happened with that Philly game, but that's an exception to the rule.) Manning may be reduced to a million-dollar brain with a ten-cent arm, but Belichick's defense will approach this game as if he's the Manning of old ... sort of.
Besides Tom Brady and Josh McDaniels concocting of a game plan against Wade Phillips' talented but beatable defense, the Patriots need to figure out a way to stop the Broncos offense, which for most of the season has been predicated by the running game and head coach Gary Kubiak's zone blocking scheme.
For that reason, Bill Belichick is going to coach his defense to stop C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman on the ground, not the passing game with Manning. As much as today's NFL is about throwing the ball, the Broncos can't win that way with Manning throwing the way he is. They gained plenty of chunk yardage on the ground the last time they played the Patriots, and Kubiak's run scheme has historically succeeded against Belichick's defense. In six career games against the Patriots as a head coach, Kubiak's offenses have rushed 159 times for 740 yards, a 4.65 average, with 13 touchdowns.
It should be encouraging for Patriots fans, however, that the Patriots defense kept the Broncos' running attack in check for most of the first half when they met in Denver in Week 12. The Broncos rushed 16 times for just 46 yards, a 2.8-yard average ... but that was with stalwart linebacker Dont'a Hightower on the field. After No. 54 left the game with a knee injury, the Broncos rushed 16 more times, but for 179 yards. Ronnie Hillman rushed for 28 yards and a touchdown in just the first two running plays after the Hightower injury. C.J. Anderson's game-winning 48-yard run skewed the numbers a bit, but even without that fatal play the Broncos rushed for 5.6 yards on average after Hightower went down.
Assuming Hightower is close to full strength, his impact on the Patriots run defense cannot be understated. If New England can be close to as effective as they were in that first half, and keep most of the defense down low defending the short-to-intermediate passing game, that leaves it up to Manning to beat the Patriots over the top with deep passes.
It's not that Manning isn't physically capable of throwing the ball deep. He just can't do it accurately and consistently for a 60-minute game. Manning will call a good game, minimize mistakes, and check to the run when he can, a.k.a. be a good game manager. But when the run isn't there, he is going to have no choice but to chuck the ball downfield. And that is probably what Belichick wants.
While Manning didn't have his worst game against the Steelers - he took care of the ball and made a few key throws down the stretch - he was still unimpressive. His winning "drive" came on a short field, as did most of the Broncos' possessions throughout the day, and a more talented secondary may have done a better job defending some of the passes he threw.
Manning's receivers didn't help matters dropping passes that were right in their hands, but the fact that his passes wobble and float through the air rather than zip with a tight spiral has to play at least some role in their difficulty making catches. Scott Zolak, who used to throw footballs for a living, mentioned that on the air during Zolak and Bertrand on Monday.
"[The tip of the football] is what receivers stare at when they go to pluck it," he said, "not both coming at you at the same time ... [His throws are] like a punt."
If Manning is sending over a dozen of those ducks through the air on Sunday, that bodes well for the Patriots defense. Belichick may be taking Manning seriously, but it's because of his mind, not his arm.
Matt Dolloff is a writer for CBSBostonSports.com. His opinions do not necessarily reflect that of CBS or 98.5 The Sports Hub. Follow him on Twitter @mattdolloff and email him at mdolloff@985thesportshub.com.
