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Most Snow From Weekend Nor'Easter? South Of Boston

By Terry Eliasen, Meteorologist, WBZ-TV Exec. Weather Producer

BOSTON (CBS) - Contrary to popular belief, creating the "perfect storm" ain't easy. Never mind perfect, it's tough just to get a good old-fashioned nor'easter here in southern New England.

When it comes down to it, we average about 1 or 2 real significant storms each winter. Of course, we would all define what is significant a bit differently, but for the purposes of this discussion, I am talking a solid 6-to-12 inches of snow or more for a good portion of the area.

Some winters we get more than the average.  Four years ago, in the winter of 2011-2012, we had a TOTAL of 9.3 inches.

That brings me to our current situation. We have had our eyes on this coming weekend for quite some time, going back nearly a week or more. There have been serious red flags surrounding the January 22-24th time frame.

There are plenty of things that can and typically do go wrong in the process of getting from a crazy idea on a weather model 10 days in advance to an actual storm blowing off our coast.

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(WBZ-TV graphic)

Taking all this into account, it is hard to be surprised that what once looked like a knockout punch coming this weekend, has zigged and zagged several times since. With more than 3 days until this storm arrives, the final solution remains a bit cloudy.

However, our confidence is growing that southern New England will be spared from the worst this time around. Those in the Virginia's and Mid-Atlantic likely won't be so lucky.

This storm WILL form and WILL dump 1-2 feet of snow SOMEWHERE.  That somewhere now is more likely to be in places like Roanoke, Virginia, Philadelphia, Washington D.C. and NOT Boston.

WHAT TO EXPECT

So what should we expect here?

There is going to be a very sharp northern edge to this storm, not a lot of space on the map between a whole lot of snow and a whole lot of nothing. That makes this even more tricky to forecast.

snowmap
(WBZ-TV graphic)

The best chance of seeing a plowable snow in our area is south of Boston, such as Plymouth and Bristol counties and over the Cape and Islands. I would say there is a slightly greater than 50-percent chance of 6 inches or more in those areas.

Heading north, from Boston to Worcester and the nearby suburbs chances of a significant, plowable snow decrease.

I would put the chances of 6 inches or more along the Massachusetts Turnpike somewhere between 25-to-50-percent.

Up in northern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire, this will likely be a very low impact event, perhaps not much of an event at all actually.

Chances of 6 inches or more in this region are less than 25-percent. This is NOT a storm for the northern mountains and ski areas.

TIMING

The period of greatest impact looks to be Saturday late afternoon through Sunday morning.

I don't expect much wind or snow before 2 p.m. Saturday and after 2 p.m. on Sunday. The storm should be out of here in plenty of time to enjoy watching the Patriots beat Peyton Manning one more time.

WIND AND COAST

The impact on our coastline largely depends on how close the track of the storm is. There is a heightened concern this weekend due to the full moon and astronomically high tides. Tide times to watch would be Saturday 11 p.m. and Sunday 11 a.m.

With even a marginally close storm track we would receive strong northeast winds likely leading to some coastal flooding and beach erosion. This is a situation that will be closely monitored as a closer storm track could have severe consequences for those living at our coast.

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(WBZ-TV graphic)

Stay tuned.

With the storm now coming ashore over the West Coast, we will get a good set of data today and likely be able to focus on the finer details and numbers later this afternoon.

Watch: Terry and Danielle Niles discuss latest on the storm

As always, best thing you can do is stay informed and stay plugged into good, quality up to date information. You can always find that on WBZ-TV, WBZ NewsRadio 1030 and CBSBoston.com.

Follow Terry on Twitter @TerryWBZ

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