A Stocking Full of Records For Christmas Week
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There may be no snow, but we're going to have the hap-hap-happiest Christmas since Bing Crosby tap danced with Danny Kaye. And we're not going to be cold doing it. So far we've seen an exceptional month of December and more is on the way as we head through the holiday week. Records for warmth and for lack of snow are on the table, and here's a look at what we may see under the tree.
Up first, records for lack of snow. Pittsburgh, PA and Buffalo, NY, and Albany, NY already set records for their latest first snow of the season, to name a few. Burlington had its 3rd longest wait for 1" of snow on record dating back to 1893. Not only that, but it's been a loooong time between snowfalls (hard to believe after last year's onslaught). Albany's longest streak between measurable snowfalls is now the 4th longest on record, and none is coming this week.
The same situation of dendritic futility is going on in Worcester, MA. It will most certainly not be snowing this week, so it will set a new bar for latest snowfall on record after beating the current top spot of Christmas Eve, 1923. When will it snow? Possibly not at all this month, but it's not a lock yet.
The record in Boston is a little farther down the road - January 13th (set in 2000). It's a bit early to know if we'll make it that long. But chances look extremely slim until at least January, so it should at the very least be a close call. Plus, this year will likely end up being only the 5th on record to have no measurable snow at all in the city during October-November-December.
Head up to northern New England and it's a similar story. Walking around Church Street in Burlington has been a breeze this December, with a number of records about to fall in the coming days. It's already the least snowy start to a season on record to date. And the forecast this Christmas Eve is shades of the epic March 2012 record warmth episode in terms of its departure from the norm. The National Weather Service there is forecasting 62F, which would beat the record high by ELEVEN degrees. That's insane. A high of 62F is just a bit shy of the all-time warmest December day, which was far earlier in the month. It's also a whopping 32F above average.
A record I'm certainly comfortable with saying we'll smash is one for a lack of subfreezing air. It typically should be pretty easy to hit 32F in December. But we've only done it three times this entire month, and have only been below freezing for one hour (Sunday morning). The lowest number of nights reaching or dipping below freezing on record in Boston is 11. With three to date, not only will this record get beaten, it will likely get crushed by a wide margin. There are no nights near 32F in the forecast until Sunday night. Mathematically, game over. Same for Worcester. Even if every single night the rest of the month hit freezing, we'd still break the record. Only a couple should be able to manage it.
Going hand in hand with the lack of snow is the incredible warmth. The first three weeks of December have been the warmest on record in Boston (and many surrounding areas). No changes to that pattern coming. Temperatures all week will be double-digits above average, and some of them more than 20F above average. It's been as warm this December as it was cold last February. And consider this - in the same year we're going to end up seeing the warmest winter month ever recorded here, and the coldest. Just 10 months apart. Remarkable.
This all reaches a climax on Thursday, so let's talk Christmas Eve and Day records. Going back through the books (which date to 1871), the warmest Christmas Eve temperature in Boston is 61F set in 1996. In fact, only two on record have even hit 60F (the other was in 1990). This one is flat-out crushable. All guidance says we won't just reach the 60s, but some towns may even have a shot at 70F Thursday. You don't often hear 'muggy' and 'Christmas Eve' in the same sentence, but that's what we'll get. The highest dew point recorded during winter (DJF) in Boston is 63F. We should be right up there on Thursday, so no chance to use the garage as an extra refrigerator for your celebration. Highly likely that we'll see plenty of buds and even some blooms to go with our Christmas wreaths.
Christmas Day is a little trickier. The current record high of 65F is no easy feat! Also take note that Boston's warmest Christmas on record was back in 1889. Yes, even in the old days a green Christmas was possible. It appears that we'll still be close to 60F at midnight, and may bounce back up into the low 60s during the day. It's close, but will probably come up just a little short. This is even milder than last year, where we had a high of 59F in Boston. Look at the bright side - you can go for a nice holiday run in shorts, or have the kids try out their new bikes right away.
Not just us feeling the weather weirdness this time around. The entire East Coast forecast looks more like Memorial Day than Christmas. In fact, plenty of years we just pray for temps near 70F on Memorial Day. Highs should top 70 in NYC and DC, with widespread 80s in Florida. It's likely that over 100 record highs get set this week in the east. They'll be most concentrated in the Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday, the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Thursday, and the Southeast on Friday.
With all these warm days, we're now at the top of the leader board for most days 50F+ in Boston, sitting at 16. Thursday, Friday, and Sunday are all expected to top 50F. So there ya go, we'll have at least 19 of them with a chance for more. If you're wondering about the most 60F+ days ever recorded in December, the top spot is 7 of them, set in both 1990 and 1982. We have 3 so far with 2 more in the forecast, but for the moment this record looks safe.
Then we look at the month as a whole. We most certainly can start talking about the warmest December ever recorded in Boston. At this stage, of course we're in the #1 spot by a very wide margin. And so it's not really a question of whether or not we'll do it, but by how much? The average temp this week is expected to be somewhere between 48F and 49F. That's A) ridiculous and B) enough to move our average temps UP during the end of the month. No harsh could is expected before New Year's...in fact we may not see a single day below average. So it's not impossible that we beat the record for warmest December by more than 4 degrees. You rarely see a monthly record blown away by such a wide margin, especially at a site that's existed since 1871.
Will we pay for this? I'd say we already did. Even with the incredible warmth of this month, do you know where this year is going to end up? Perfectly average. As in, almost on the dot. The winter was so cold that it balanced out the warm second half. And so we see how averages are made - the middle of extremes.
