What To Watch For When Patriots Visit Texans
By Michael Hurley, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- A month ago, the Patriots' visit to Houston looked to be nothing more than a mere speed bump on the way to a potentially perfect regular season. Now, it's taken on the feel of a borderline must-win. Things sure do change awfully fast in the NFL.
Of course, it's not a must-win, per se, because the Patriots would still be in more-than-decent shape if they were to finish the season at 13-3. But after losing two straight games, and with questions starting to really swirl around a team that not long ago looked like a shoo-in for Super Bowl 50, Sunday night's game in Houston at least presents an opportunity for the Patriots to stem the tide, reestablish themselves, and set themselves up in good position for the final few weeks of the season.
As evidenced by last week's stunning loss at home to the then-4-7 Eagles, no win can be penciled in as a guarantee anymore. Clearly, the Patriots are going to have to work if they want to secure a first-round bye and/or home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
With that in mind, here's what to watch for when the Patriots and Texans kick off on Sunday night.
What Watt Can Do
J.J. Watt is the best defensive lineman in football, and this week Bill Belichick said Watt deserves to be in the same conversation as Lawrence Taylor. Anyone who's ever heard Belichick talk about Lawrence Taylor knows just how big a compliment that truly is.
Yet Watt made national news on Thursday when he announced that he broke his hand at Wednesday's practice. He still plans on playing, but he'll assuredly be impacted by that injury.
Considering Watt was a bona fide MVP candidate last year, if he's not going at 100 percent, the Texans instantly become a remarkably worse football team. It could be a huge break for the Patriots, whose offensive line got roasted by an awful Giants pass rush four weeks ago, and it hasn't done much to keep Tom Brady safe in the three games that followed.
How Watt can manage that injury -- and we should know in the first series or two whether he's hampered -- could go a long way toward determining how much effectively the New England offense will be able to operate.
DeAndre Hopkins Vs. 11
This season, DeAndre Hopkins has 86 receptions. Nobody else on the Houston roster has even half as many. With 1,169 receiving yards, he single-handedly accounts for 27 percent of Houston's offense this season. With 10 receiving TDs, he's scored 33.3 percent of the team's offensive touchdowns.
In that sense, there is no denying that Hopkins is without a doubt the most impactful player on the Houston offense. And if the Patriots want to win, they'll need to limit Hopkins.
Yet that has, of course, been the game plan of many opponents this season, and it hasn't exactly worked out. He's really only been kept in check three times all season -- against Carolina, Miami, and (of all defenses) New Orleans. Yet elsewhere on his game log, you'll see 9/98/2 vs. Kansas City, 8/101/1 vs. Tampa Bay, 9/157/0 at Atlanta, 11/169/0 vs. Indy, 10/148/2 at Jacksonville, and 5/118/2 vs. the Jets.
That last one, against Darrelle Revis, was particularly eye-opening, as it really announced to the world that there's no one cornerback who can cover Hopkins.
If the Patriots do hope to limit Hopkins to somewhere in the 50-yard range, it'll take a potential combination of Logan Ryan with safety help. Malcolm Butler's been mostly asked to go man-to-man, and if Revis couldn't handle Hopkins, neither can Butler.
Ultimately, Hopkins will get his catches, but it'll take the entire Patriots defense -- from the pass rush limiting Brian Hoyer's options, to the linebackers reacting over the middle, to the secondary staying close -- to prevent him from taking over the game.
Will There Be Any Handoffs?
The Patriots have 277 rushing attempts this season, fourth-fewest in the entire league. The Texans have run it a bit more, but with little success, averaging 3.5 yards per carry. That's the fourth-lowest mark in the NFL.
The Patriots simply have not prioritized a running game, while the Texans have simply struggled to replace Arian Foster.
I laid out this week why the Patriots may be wise to limit the workload on their quarterback, as history has shown that QBs who throw more than 600 passes in a season have never won the Super Bowl. With Brady at 507 already and four games remaining, he'll almost certainly go over that 600 mark. Nevertheless, even with injuries elsewhere on the offense, it may best serve the Patriots to start preserving their quarterback.
On the other side, the hope for any team trying to beat the Patriots is to control the ball. And with a New England defense that allows 4.1 yards per carry, the opportunity for Bill O'Brien's team to at least try to run the ball will be there. It'll be up to the Patriots to try to limit those gains on first and second downs, because forcing Hoyer into third-and-longs (thirds-and-long?) is probably the best recipe for success. (Of note: Dont'a Hightower was listed as questionable for the game.)
But don't be surprised if we see barely any run plays at all, at least while the game hangs in the balance.
Gronk? Edelman? No Way ... Right??
It was very surprising to see Rob Gronkowski return to the practice field on Thursday. It was doubly shocking to see Julian Edelman on the practice field on Friday.
Surely, neither is going to actually play in the game ... right?
If either does play, it would likely be Gronkowski, who was lucky enough to escape Denver two weeks ago with "only" a knee sprain and bone bruise. But from the joint statement from the Gronkowski family and the Patriots, to the sponsored injury update video by Gronkowski himself, to Gronkowski's brief statement and direction of questions to Bill Belichick on Friday afternoon, there's something strange going on with that situation. The Patriots and Gronkowskis have disagreed on a diagnosis or two in years past, one of which led to Gronkowski reinjuring his arm back in the 2012 postseason, which has led to some speculation this time around. Perhaps the two sides are merely trying to present a united front, or perhaps there's a bit of a behind-the-scenes struggle taking place once again.
Whatever it may be, the entire Patriots offense changes if Gronkowski does indeed suit up on Sunday night.
In the case of Edelman, who broke his foot against the Giants, it's not worth spending time speculating whether he might play on Sunday night. He's already been ruled out. But his presence on the practice field Friday is a hugely positive step toward the Patriots getting him back when they really need him in January.
Read more from Michael Hurley by clicking here. You can email him or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
