What To Watch For: How Will The Patriots Offense Look Without Julian Edelman?
By Matt Dolloff (@mattdolloff)
BOSTON (CBS) -- After an incredible streak of health at the skill positions, the Patriots suffered their first big hit to the offense since losing Rob Gronkowski in 2013. Top Tom Brady target Julian Edelman will spend at least the next 6-8 weeks on the sidelines as he recovers from a broken foot, and the Patriots offense will have to play much differently in his absence.
That's not to say the offense will collapse. As long as Brady and Gronkowski are on the field, they will always be a threat to light up the scoreboard. But Edelman has developed into one of the most dynamic receivers in the league with the ball in his hands and is impossible to replace, so the Patriots will need to find different ways to move the chains and get good production both inside and outside the numbers.
The first test of Brady's first extended run without Edelman in the fold in years begins in Foxboro as the Patriots welcome the Buffalo Bills for a Monday Night Football showdown. The Bills will be seeking revenge for their 40-32 Week 2 loss at Ralph Wilson Stadium, in which they got shredded by Brady for 466 yards and three touchdowns but threatened to come back late in the fourth quarter.
Monday night games at Foxboro have not gone well in recent years for neither Ryan nor the Bills, and beating the Patriots at Gillette Stadium is a tall order in itself - so the Bills and their coach enter Monday night needing to reverse a disturbing trend. Patriots Nation fondly remembers the 2009 season opener on Monday night against the Bills, where Leodis McKelvin's fumble on a kickoff return late in the fourth quarter set the Patriots up for a miracle comeback win.
Although the 2010 season ended poorly for the Patriots against Rex Ryan, New England had another memorable Monday night performance against Ryan's Jets with a 45-3 drubbing that still stands as one of the biggest national TV smackdowns in recent memory. So however this season turns out for these teams and these coaches, Ryan and the Bills have some demons to exorcise on Monday night.
As much as the Bills need to bring their A-game to have a shot at pulling the road upset, the Patriots also face a big challenge in their first full game without Edelman in the fold. Here's what to watch for in the Patriots' and Bills' Monday night showdown.
No. 12 Without No. 11
Brady still has Gronk to throw to and Brandon LaFell is working his way back as an outside threat, but Brady's bread-and-butter has always been the slot receiver. Troy Brown, Wes Welker, and now Edelman have long been the cornerstone weapon of Brady's relentless short-to-intermediate passing attack. Edelman has emerged as a threat not just in the slot, but outside the numbers and in the red zone as well - there's no easy way to replace what he brought to the table.
As for the "next man up", the microscope focuses mainly on Danny Amendola. No. 80 came up huge after Edelman's injury against the Giants last Sunday, and since last year's playoffs has built a reputation for making big plays in big situations. He will be needed to contribute in all situations this time, and while he may not take over Edelman's role in the offense he will certainly see more targets.
The most important situation to watch for with the Patriots offense is third down; Edelman and Dion Lewis were Brady's primary chain-moving possession targets when the offense looked practically unstoppable in the early weeks, so Brady will have to look elsewhere in those spots. With Gronk probably drawing more coverage than he has in a long time, guys like Amendola, LaFell, and perhaps even Scott Chandler will have to be counted upon to make plays when Brady delivers them the ball.
It will also be interesting to see whether the Patriots morph back into more of a power running offense, which the 2013 team did after losing Gronkowski and leaving Brady with no viable targets outside of Edelman. LeGarrette Blount steamrolled opposing defenses late that season and has since shown flashes of that kind of ability; if Brady can't get the passing game going like he could with Edelman, he may turn to Blount to wear down defenses with punishing runs.
Can The Bills Get To Brady This Time?
The Bills' highly talented (and highly paid) defensive front entered Week 2 believing they would wreak havoc on the Patriots' relative no-names on the offensive line. Instead, Brady got rid of the ball in under two seconds all day long - and even if the likes of Marcel Dareus and Mario Williams broke through blockers, they couldn't get to Brady quickly enough.
The Patriots offensive line is more banged up than they were that week, with Nate Solder out for the season and Sebastian Vollmer, Marcus Cannon, and Tre' Jackson working their way back from injuries. The Patriots may get those guys back this week, but piecing the line back together remains a work in progress.
That lack of continuity could work in the Bills' favor. The New York Giants entered last Sunday with one of the league's worst pass rushes, yet were able to get consistent pressure on Brady. The Bills are too talented in the front four to get shut down again, right? They have a lot to prove in this game and will need to play at a high level to have a chance at stopping Brady, even without Edelman on the field.
The one thing you can't give Brady is time to throw, and he doesn't need a lot of it. If the Bills can't rush his throws, they are going to have a long night.
Can The Butler Do It Again?
Malcolm Butler may have made the play of his life and caught the world's attention in Super Bowl XLIX, but Week 10 against the Giants will go down as his true breakout performance. You can still say he's far from Darrelle Revis all you want, but his (mostly) shutdown performance against Odell Beckham Jr. announced his presence to the world as a legitimate No. 1 cornerback.
Butler will need to continue playing at that high of a level to continue silencing whatever critics he may have left, and he won't have to wait long for a chance to prove himself as a top-tier corner: the Bills' Sammy Watkins comes to town hungry to make plays after being shadowed by Revis last week against the Jets. Their expected one-on-one matchup will be one of the must-watch battles all night.
One big factor in Butler's effectiveness against Beckham was that the slight, 6-foot-tall OBJ didn't have much of a size advantage over the 5'11" Butler. Watkins is a bulkier, stronger receiver who at 6'1" could provide problems for Butler's lack of leaping ability; No. 21 has been susceptible to jump-balls over his head, so it will be interesting to see if Ryan and Tyrod Taylor have the wherewithal to take advantage of that. Not to mention, Watkins may still be the most talented receiver of last year's historic rookie class and just two weeks ago exploded for 8 catches, 168 yards and a touchdown.
Butler played a role in allowing Beckham's 87-yard touchdown on the Giants' second play of the game last Sunday, but locked him down from then on out and made a huge play in recovering after getting beat to knock a potential game-winning touchdown out of Beckham's hands.
Watkins beat Butler for a long touchdown in Week 2, but it was when the game was already well in hand for the Patriots. Watkins will need to make more plays like that, and do them in big situations, for the Bills to have a shot in this game. And Butler has a big chance to prove that last week was no fluke.
Late-Game Clock Management And Situational Football
Tom Coughlin's Giants always play the Patriots hard without fail, and they always seem much better prepared for Belichick and Brady than most other teams in the league. But Coughlin also often has trouble managing the clock at the end of games, and the problem reared its ugly head last Sunday when the Giants left too much time on the clock for Brady to lead the Patriots down the field and set up Stephen Gostkowski's game-winning field goal.
Rex Ryan has never been known as a great situational coach, and his teams often blow timeouts too early in halves by being too disorganized or unprepared for the situation. On the flipside, Belichick may be the greatest situational coach in NFL history and always has his team prepared for everything - especially in the closing minutes.
Belichick and Brady manage the clock with sniper-like precision. They're not just getting lucky at the end of these games - their unparalleled clock management and situational awareness is a big reason why they have such a knack for pulling out close wins at the end of games. Case in point: Where Leodis McKelvin needlessly takes the kickoff out of the end zone with the game in hand, Amendola catches it in the end zone for a touchback to leave Brady enough time to come back.
It's unlikely the Patriots will make many situational mistakes Monday night, if any. Ryan and the Bills will need to be on par with their execution late in the game, especially if it's close. If the game is within one score in the final two minutes, the Patriots would be a safe bet.
The Patriots may be dealing with major injuries on both offense and defense - Jamie Collins is likely to miss his third game in a row with a mysterious illness that has kept him out of practice for the past three weeks - and should get a better effort from Ryan and the Bills than they got in Week 2. But their coaching and situational play remains the best in the league, and the Bills will need to be at their absolute best to overcome that challenge.
Matt Dolloff is a writer for CBSBostonSports.com. His opinions do not necessarily reflect that of CBS or 98.5 The Sports Hub. Read more from Matt here. Follow him on Twitter @mattdolloff and email him at mdolloff@985thesportshub.com.
