Keller @ Large: Polls In NH Mean Nothing Right Now
By Jon Keller, WBZ-TV
BOSTON (CBS) - Here we are, exactly three months away from New Hampshire primary voting day, and after more than a year of all-out campaigning, strategizing, punditry and spin, would you like to know a dirty little secret?
We have almost no more idea of what will happen on February 9th in New Hmpahire now then we did a year ago.
Look at the polls at this time eight years ago in the Republican primary. Mitt Romney held a small lead over Rudy Giuliani, remember him? He had been the front runner for awhile earlier in the year, but would wind up finishing a distant fourth.
Slightly behind Giuliani was John McCain, who would overtake Romney just before New Years and coast to a clear win. Still in the mix – Mike Huckabee, and Fred Thompson.
For the Democrats eight years ago in New Hampshire, Hillary Clinton held a blowout lead. She would fall behind Barack Obama by double digits in the final days before surprising the pundits with a narrow victory.
The point is, the polls in NH three months out mean almost nothing – unless you're someone like Jeb Bush, who has to start doing better fast if he's to remain relevant. Most NH voters do not make up their minds this far in advance as a matter of principle; they want to be courted some more, watch what happens, and see how they feel when they wake up on voting day.
So when you see in the latest NH poll Trump, Carson, Rubio, Kasich, Christie, Bush, Cruz and Fiorina all within a 12-point umbrella, you realize – nothing that has happened so far has meant very much. And the thing is still a total jump ball.
Hope you didn't waste too much time trying to figure out a race that hasn't even started yet.
Listen to Jon's commentary:
