What To Watch For: Land Or Air Attack For Patriots vs. Colts?
By Matthew Geagan, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- The thinking around New England is this one could get ugly.
After eight-plus long months of DeflateGate nonsense, the Patriots can finally turn their attention to the franchise that started it all: The Indianapolis Colts. They're on a mission to destroy any team standing in their way, and a date with the Colts, in Indianapolis, is next on the list.
The predictions for this one are getting a bit out of hand. While it's not crazy to think the Patriots will win in a blowout (they've beaten Indy by an average margin of 30 points in the last four meetings), the 90-7 final scores are a little outrageous, even with Tom Brady making the game look oh so simple as of late.
Chances are we'll have a pretty good football game, at least for a half. The Colts have been competitive in the first half their last two times against New England, only to see things really fall apart in the second half. Given they're also fairly motivated heading into this one, that trend should continue. New England's second half dominance should also continue, unless the Colts can actually stop the run this time around.
Here's what we'll be watching for come Sunday evening:
What's New England's Offensive Attack?
The Patriots have been doing just about everything right on offense this season, scoring a franchise record 149 points through their first four games. Eleven of those scores have come from Brady's golden arm, while six other have come on the ground (three by LeGarrette Blount, a pair from Dion Lewis and one by Brady himself).
Brady is moving the ball like few others have ever done, completing 72.5 percent of his passes for 1,387 yards -- good for fifth in the league despite playing one fewer game than the five QBs ahead of him (two games in the case of Atlanta's Matt Ryan). He's also the only full-time starter not to throw the ball to the other team in 2015.
And since playing with footballs that no one can question (halftime of the AFC Championship game), Brady has tossed an incredible 17 touchdowns to just two interceptions, completing nearly 74 percent of his passes for 1,846 yards. To sum it all up, Brady has been pretty darn good on this "Scorched Earth" tour. Now he gets to face a team that has allowed the fifth-most passing yards in the league, and that has come against a garbage group of quarterbacks. Imagine what a motivated Brady will do to them.
But given New England's success on the ground against Indianapolis, having rushed for 657 yards and 11 touchdowns in their last three meetings, will they keep shoving it down the Colts' throats? Jonas Gray became a household name for a few months because he carved up the Colts defense for 200 yards and four touchdowns on national TV. He's gone, but there's little doubt that Dion Lewis can juke his way to a 100+ rushing yards against a porous Indy D that did little to improve itself, with LeGarrette Blount getting in on the fun as well (having run for 314 yards and seven touchdowns in his last two games against the Colts in a Patriots uniform).
Whether by land or the air, the Patriots are going to score points on Sunday. It's a great problem to have for the Patriots: Beat the Colts with our ridiculous areal assault or stellar ground attack? This one should be fun.
Gronk Loves Playing Indy
Sure, they are the team that basically ended his 2012 season on an extra point, but boy does Rob Gronkowski love playing against the Colts.
While he torches his hometown Bills worse than any other NFL team, the Colts aren't far behind on Gronk's hit list. The Patriots are 4-0 against Indy with the behemoth of a tight end at Brady's disposal, who's caught 17 of the 19 passes sent his way for 297 yards and five touchdowns against Indy. He has another score against the Colts that went in the books as a rushing touchdown, the result of a Brady screen that was just a hair behind the line of scrimmage.
Even with the Patriots' running game having a field day the last two times against the Colts, Gronkowski had seven catches for 99 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Somehow, some way, teams have managed to lose Gronkowski on the field this season. Somehow, some way, the Colts allowed the Houston Texans to throw a last-second Hail Mary against them last Thursday just before halftime. Talk about a recipe for disaster. Gronk may not just throw one player out of the club this weekend; he might toss out the entire team.
Shear(d) Madness
The Patriots, given their lack of strength in the secondary, have placed a bigger focus on their pass rush this season.
That's let Jabaal Sheard break out over the last few weeks, and the newcomer should have no problem getting to Andrew Luck on Sunday. Sheard has four sacks on the season, including two against Dallas last Sunday. Now he's going against a Colts offensive line that has given up 71 QB hits this season (but somehow only eight sacks).
If Sheard is contained, the Colts have Chandler Jones (three sacks) on the line and Jamie Collins (3.5 sacks) to worry about. Collins is rounding into one of the best defensive players in the league, causing headaches for any offensive coordinator that tries to gameplan around him.
The Colts are not protecting their quarterback this season, no matter who is under center. Andrew Luck must be pumped to come back from his shoulder injury.
Rusty Luck?
Luck has missed the last two games with a right shoulder injury, the result of his offensive line acting more like a turnstile this season. If he returns this weekend (he will), it's against a team he's never beaten in his four NFL seasons.
In a pair of regular season games and two playoff tilts, Luck has thrown six touchdowns while the New England defense has picked him off 10 times. He's put up some big passing yard totals against the Pats, but most of those yards have come as his team tries to dig themselves out of a rather large hole on the scoreboard.
In his three games this season, Luck hasn't exactly been a dead-eye either. He's completed just over 56 percent of his passes, and has thrown more of them to the opposition (seven interceptions) than passes that have led to scores (five touchdowns).
The New England secondary is nowhere near what it was last season, but their improved pass rush will make life difficult for Luck on Sunday. Welcome back, Andrew!
Bonus: Musical Chairs On Offensive Line
The Patriots lost Nate Solder to a right biceps tear earlier this week. That places another big question mark on the New England offensive line.
With Solder down, not only does that leave Brady without another touchdown target (Solder had one of Brady's 37 touchdown passes in last year's AFC title game), but it likely means Marcus Cannon is in charge of protecting Brady's blind side. That's a scary proposition for Patriots fans.
But fear not, as we can all feel better knowing the Colts have struggled to get to the quarterback this season, registering just six sacks in their first five games. Bill Belichick has found the right combinations and rotations so far this season, and with the exception of a five-sack first half in Dallas, Brady's uniform has been squeaky clean this season.
Tune in to Patriots-Colts Sunday night on 98.5 The Sports Hub — the flagship station of the New England Patriots. Pregame coverage begins at 5:30pm, with three hours of postgame coverage following the game. WBZ-TV gets you ready Sunday morning with Patriots GameDay at 11:30am, and after the game catch Bill Belichick and Tom Brady's press conferences live on Patriots 5th Quarter!
