Hurley's Picks: Seahawks Due For Dud, Steelers Rising, Patriots Might Win By 50
By Michael Hurley, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- The folks out in Vegas are pretty, pretty good.
This was at the forefront of my mind last weekend, when it seemed like I missed every pick by about one point. I had the Falcons by seven; they won by six. I had the Bills by 2.5; they won by one. I had the Raiders getting five; they lost by six. I had the Chargers by three, which was set to be a push until Michael Vick, of all people, engineered a game-winning drive, capped off with an insane play call to give the Steelers the outright win.
That's just a few games from one week, but I checked the trends at Covers.com, and I learned that favorites are 36-39-2 on the year. Even more insane: over/unders are at exactly 50 percent on the season.
It's hard to glean any sort of trend to help, too. Home favorites are 23-29-1 against the spread. Home underdogs are 10-13-1. It makes this job very tough.
Was all of this "research" merely an effort to make me feel better about my dreadful 5-9 week? How dare you! Let's move on before I spend any more time pondering that ridiculous accusation you just made in an effort to besmirch my character.
(Home team in CAPS; Wednesday lines)
Atlanta (-3.5) over NEW ORLEANS
We're all set on the Saints now, right? OK, good. Just checking before I spent any more time thinking about them.
Cincinnati (-3.5) over BUFFALO
It goes against every single fiber of my being to sit here and say that the Cincinnati Bengals are going to be 6-0, that Andy Dalton will play well enough for real people to discuss him as an MVP candidate, and that all of this will happen in real life. But E.J. Manuel is starting for the Bills. E.J. Manuel! And the Bills, even after being given wristbands by Rex Ryan to remind them to be nice to officials, were barely good enough to beat the Titans.
Marvin Lewis is doing a much better job than Rex Ryan. I did not foresee that back in August, but I can't deny it now.
(Obviously, none of this means that I'm going to feel any sort of confidence in Cincinnati come January. Obviously.)
Ridiculous Quote From Last Week's Picks: "If the Bengals start the year 5-0, I will eat my hat*."
Note: I left myself some wiggle room by declaring that my hat is made out of tortilla chips. So this is not so bad.
Denver (-4) over CLEVELAND
Last week, I wrote about how the horseshoe was overdue to dislodge itself from the Broncos' collective butt. Then, Derek Carr threw a pick-six with Oakland driving for a potential game-winning score. The Broncos were spared from an embarrassing loss in Oakland. And they covered by a point.
So just like with Cincy, I'm not going to sit here and micturate into the wind. Instead I'll just accept the fact that every possible bounce will go the Broncos' way. Even if Peyton Manning throws three awful picks and they look doomed, the Broncos will manage to win. That's how 2015 is going to go.
Chicago (+3) over DETROIT
THIS GAME STINKS.
Know what's still on my mind? People wondered after the officiating gaffe in Seattle two Mondays ago why Jim Caldwell didn't say anything to the officials. People, Jim Caldwell has never said anything to anybody. Ever.
Miami (+2.5) over TENNESSEE
I'm going to come to regret this pick, perhaps. But listen, sometimes forces come along that are beyond all control. And certainly, replacing a plain wafer of a human in Joe Philbin with a hulking maniac like Dan Campbell is going to bring about results.
You're telling me that the Dolphins aren't going to play great for this guy?
Get out here right now if you are indeed telling me that. Now let's run the damn Oklahoma drill again! ON THE LINE!
Kansas City (+4) over MINNESOTA
I'm out on the Chiefs, for the record, but the points look too enticing in this mediocre matchup. Losing Jamaal Charles hurts, but it might actually force Alex Smith to throw the ball beyond the line of scrimmage. It might work out a little bit better.
If the Chiefs lose, is Andy Reid on the hot seat? They'd be 1-5, losers of five straight, and their season would be over with little reason to believe that next year would be much better.
Ha ha, just kidding, Andy Reid is somehow immune to hot seats. He'll be employed for at least eight more years.
Washington (+6) over NEW YORK JETS
The Redskins are a brutal football team to watch, yet they're 3-2 against the spread. Now they're getting too many points against a just-OK Jets team.
I'd prefer to pick neither team, but that's not allowed. So I'll take the points.
PITTSBURGH (+3) over Arizona
The Cardinals are 2-0 on the road, but those wins came against Detroit and Chicago. So are they really 2-0 on the road?
I'm starting to think that the Steelers are one of the few teams that is actually pretty good. If you can win on the road with Mike Vick at QB, you must be doing something right.
And though losing Ben Roethlisberger for a few weeks certainly hurt them on the field, I think the quarterback has proven quite definitively that he's a better offensive coordinator than Todd Haley.
I know Roethlisberger thinks he can play this weekend, which is exactly the type of mind-set you'd expect from a guy who basically walked away from a motorcycle accident that might have crippled a normal person. But even if he doesn't play, I think the Steelers can pull it off without him. (Arizona's faceplant against St. Louis two weeks ago helps me feel somewhat better about that belief.)
Houston (-1.5) over JACKSONVILLE
Why?! What did I do in my previous life that was so bad that I have to endure the AFC South?! Why?!
For this pick, I applied my simple principle: Do not pick any team that signs Jeff Tuel during the week.
Carolina (+6.5) over SEATTLE
Though I've shown that I'm willing to adapt after five weeks, there are certain tenets from the summer that I must hold on to. And Seattle being a mess counts as one.
This may sound simplistic, but the Seahawks have lost their swagger. It was once very real, very intimidating, and it was a huge part of their identity. Now they're giving up tons of yards, relatively speaking, and they're in danger of falling out of the top 10 in points allowed. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson is getting no protection and is compounding the problem by choosing to run in circles every other play. It's a good recipe for a quarterback to get killed in this league.
On the other side, there's no doubt that this will represent the first real test of the season for the 4-0 Panthers, whose opponents own an impressive combined record of 8-17. But given the way both teams have looked, you have to feel pretty confident about the Panthers' chances of at least competing.
GREEN BAY (-10) over San Diego
Really growing to hate taking Green Bay with these big spreads, considering they love making you sweat it out. At the same time, I've never considered the Chargers to be a mentally tough team, so I expect a dud out of them after getting their hearts torn out by Le'Veon Bell to start a short week.
Plus, Green Bay does keep covering these spreads, despite the drama. Mike McCoy and his visor won't be the man to buck that trend.
Baltimore (-2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO
These two teams played in the Super Bowl three seasons ago.
These two teams now stink.
I'll take the Ravens because ... maybe they're slightly more stable? I suppose just by virtue of not employing the Jim Tomsula/Colin Kaepernick duo, a team is in decent shape.
It's hard to state anything about either team with any sort of conviction. But I feel comfortable saying this might be one of the worst Super Bowl Rematch Three Years Later games of all time. (Don't worry, I checked, and the Raiders didn't play the Buccaneers in 2005.)
RQFLWP: "The highlight of the 49ers season will undoubtedly be the moment that Jim Tomsula farted at a press conference."
Note: This remains factually accurate, if a little ridiculous.
New England (-8) over INDIANAPOLIS
What in the world is going on with this line? It could be 28 and I'd still feel pretty confident in taking the Patriots. My goodness. Forget all that stuff I said about how great Vegas is. What a joke.
New York Giants (+4.5) over PHILADELPHIA
Yeah, Vegas is clearly taking some time off with these prime-time games. Unless one of you can give me one viable reason for the Eagles to be a 4.5-point favorite over a decent Giants team? Anyone? Nobody?
We all know that this one ends with Goofy Eli Manning running a goofy-as-hell two-minute drill to win the game after almost throwing three picks on the final drive.
Last week: 5-9
Season: 35-41-1
Read more from Michael Hurley by clicking here. You can email him or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
