Keller @ Large: Don't Mind The Polls For Now

BOSTON (CBS) - Sometimes an outsider can come into a situation and give you some fresh, useful insight. And that's the case with South African émigré Trevor Noah, the new host of "The Daily Show," who made some pretty good points over the weekend in an interview about presidential campaign polling in the early stages of the race.

As Noah notes, "people go, 'he's number one in the polls.' I say, 'So he's going to win?' And they say, 'Oh no, polls don't mean anything.' … That's not logical."

No, it's not, and it speaks to the fact that polls this far in advance of actual voting are as much a reflection of name-recognition and mood of the moment as anything else.

People saw a clip from a debate they liked, got an earful from a friend who's backing a particular candidate, or just heard a name and connected it with something positive, and, yes, they tell the pollster, that's who I'd vote for if the New Hampshire primary were today.

But it isn't today. It's more than four months from now, an eternity in the voter decision-making process.

Noah goes on to say: "Every election cycle, you are going to have a bunch of crazy people leading in the polls. … You are almost in a strange way adding credence to what they are saying. [The candidate] will say, 'See I said the thing, and folks are in my favor. I am saying the right thing.'"

I wouldn't call Bernie Sanders or Donald Trump or Herman Cain, who led the GOP polling four years ago this month, "crazy people," but he's again got a point about the validation people draw from early polls that may turn out to be meaningless.

So take it from a foreigner. Don't mind the polls so much.

They're really little more than a time-filler until the election actually starts.

Listen to Jon's commentary:

You can listen to Keller At Large on WBZ News Radio every weekday at 7:55 a.m. You can also watch Jon on WBZ-TV News weeknights at 11 p.m.

Email Jon at keller@wbztv.com or reach him on Twitter @kelleratlarge.