Watch CBS News

After Breakout Season, How Does Xander Bogaerts Compare To Other Elite Shortstops?

BOSTON (CBS) -- It took several years to find him, but the Red Sox's newest star player has arrived.

Xander Bogaerts delivered a breakout year for the Red Sox in his second full season in the majors, raising nearly all of his offensive totals from 2014 and greatly improving on defense. To the delight of a patient Red Sox Nation waiting for Bogaerts to take his game to the next level, he has emerged as one of the best all-around shortstops in baseball and maybe the best in the AL.

But Bogaerts is not alone: baseball is entering a new "golden age" at the shortstop position, and for the title of "Best Shortstop in Baseball" he has some very stiff competition.

Take former No.1 overall pick Carlos Correa of the Houston Astros. The 21-year-old phenom delivered an impressive rookie campaign, smashing 22 home runs and driving in 68 runs in his first 99 games in the big leagues. Correa already looks like the most dangerous offensive shortstop in baseball.

The Cleveland Indians' Francisco Lindor, meanwhile, is a defensive wizard who also had a strong year at the plate, batting .319 with 12 home runs in just 379 at-bats. And in the National League the Chicago Cubs have Addison Russell, who struggled at the plate but like Lindor plays Gold Glove-caliber defense.

These three guys are all former high first-round draft picks, and Bogaerts' chief competition to be the best shortstop in the major leagues. It's time to compare Bogaerts to these three rising stars to see where he stands among baseball's elite at his position.

The Eye Test

Xander Bogaerts certainly LOOKS like an elite shortstop. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

To analyze this deeper, I used a litany of mind-numbingly convoluted, yet accurate and informative, advanced stats. You can't really argue against Wins Above Replacement (WAR), for instance, as a barometer of of a player's overall value when this seasons's top-3 in that category was Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, and Josh Donaldson.

But before we get to the nerd stuff, let's ask a simple question: Does Bogearts pass the eye test? The answer is a resounding yes.

Bogaerts plays hard and competes, and does it all with a positive attitude. He carries himself like a true professional and plays with a controlled energy, a calm self-confidence that feels like the poise of a 10-year veteran. I can't honestly say I've seen nearly as much of the other three shortstops to fairly judge whether they pass the eye test, but there's no question that they have all made plays this season that jumped off the screen at you.

Here's Correa smacking an absolute bomb:

Here's Lindor making a diving stop:

And Russell flashing his glove:

For argument's sake, I'll assume all of these young studs pass the test. But I know that Bogaerts is in the conversation for best intangibles at the position.

Offense

The Astros' Carlos Correa might already be the best hitting shortstop in baseball. (Photo by Jon Durr/Getty Images)

I'll try not to give you brain-freeze here...but when looking at advanced analytics, Bogaerts' offensive numbers show he may have gotten lucky at the plate in 2015.

That's not to say Bogaerts is actually a bad hitter - he's still very good - but his .320 batting average is a little misleading. He had a .373 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), significantly higher than the league average, suggesting he got some help from hitting the ball into poor defenses - or got some lucky bounces along the way.

Bogaerts has room for improvement in terms of power and pitch selection. The overwhelming majority of his hits in 2015 were ground balls or line drives, and his swing percentage on pitches both inside and outside the strike zone were below average when compared to every other shortstop in baseball. But Bogaerts was third in the major leagues in pitches per plate appearance among shortstops, so the patience and approach is there. His power should rise as he fills out his 6'3" frame and his selection will improve as he gains experience.

Correa, meanwhile, already looks like a fearsome slugger less than 100 games into his major league career. If projected over a 162-game season, Correa would easily lead all shortstops in home runs. He's also extremely patient; he saw 4.16 pitches per plate appearance (third-best among all major-league shortstops, qualified or not) and his 9.3% walk rate ranked third among shortstops with at least 400 plate appearances.

Lindor put up similar offensive numbers to Bogaerts, but with a little more pop. Russell struggled at the plate for much of 2015, posting the worst contact percentage of any shortstop and finishing with the second-highest strikeout rate. Russell still has good discipline and tremendous bat speed, but may be trying to do too much with hittable pitches. He may need to simplify his approach so he can make more consistent contact, and then he will begin to put up big offensive numbers.

Where Bogaerts has the three rookies beat is base running. His Ultimate Base Running (UBR), which weighs his overall value as a base runner against the league average, was 3.6 which ranked him third among all shortstops, sandwiched between veterans Alcides Escobar and Ian Desmond and far ahead of Correa, Lindor and Russell. Bogaerts' elite base running makes up for his lack of power when calculating his offensive runs above replacement (Off), which is like WAR for just offense. His 12.3 Off rating dominated qualifying shortstops, and put him on par with Correa and Lindor.

Bogaerts is already an elite base runner with outstanding instincts. He can certainly improve greatly at the plate, and considering his strong 2015 season that's a scary thought for opposing pitchers. But Correa gets the edge here, since he looks like he could develop into one of the best hitters in baseball, regardless of position.

Defense

The Cleveland Indians' Francisco Lindor makes a diving stop. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Much like the Off rating, defensive runs above replacement (Def) is a fairly accurate assessment of a player's run prevention on defense. Lindor and Russell were both expected to enter the majors as elite fielding shortstops, and they did not disappoint - both players' Def ratings ranked among baseball's best. Lindor ranked 6th among all shortstops who played at least 850 innings. Russell played much of the season at second base, but ranked third in the majors in Def and the Cubs still see him long-term as a shortstop. Does Russell's story sound familiar?

Correa, while clearly one of the best young hitters in baseball, battled inconsistency on defense. The talent is certainly there, but he finished with a Def of -0.7, dropping his WAR to just 3.4 - compared to 4.3 for Bogaerts and 4.6 for Lindor. Correa is a freak athlete with a laser of a throwing arm, but also committed errors at a high rate - he made two more errors (13) than Bogaerts, while playing in 58 fewer games. He will surely improve his defense with more experience.

As for Bogaerts, his defense significantly improved in 2015 after a rocky 2014 campaign that had him at third base for much of the year. The permanent move to shortstop seems to have helped Bogaerts tremendously, as his errors are way down and, as we said before, it passes the eye test. He's playing shortstop with a level of confidence the Red Sox rarely saw at third base.

So Who's The Best Shortstop In Baseball?

The Red Sox's Xander Bogaerts ranges to his right. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

Troy Tulowitzki and Jose Reyes are on the way out, and most other shortstops in baseball don't have the all-around talent that this new group boasts. To determine the best in the game at the shortstop position, it's time for a whole new conversation.

If you had to make a choice as to who will emerge from this young crop of start shortstops as the best in baseball, Correa would be the pick. But it's far too early in these players' careers to definitively say that. Not since the rise of Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Nomar Garciaparra has baseball seen such a strong bunch of players at the position come up at the same time. And you could also add the Dodgers' young slugger Corey Seager, who will have his first full season next year. The development of these rising talents will be one of baseball's most intriguing storylines over the next several years.

After his 2015 breakout, Bogaerts has established himself as one of the premier all-around shortstops in the game, with even more room for improvement. He may possess the best all-around combination of offense, fielding, base running, and intangibles. But of course, there's plenty of time to see how these rising stars measure up to each other.

It will be tough for anyone to top Correa for the title of Best Shortstop In Baseball, especially as the Astros blue-chipper improves his already-formidable bat. But the fact that Bogaerts is in that conversation is welcome news for Red Sox Nation, and a promising sign for the Sox lineup's bright future.

View CBS News In
CBS News App Open
Chrome Safari Continue
Be the first to know
Get browser notifications for breaking news, live events, and exclusive reporting.