Racing The Rain On Marathon Monday

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The snow is gone, the birds are singing, the sun is shining, and the Red Sox are (mostly) winning. Yes, life is good here in New England lately. It really has been remarkable how quickly we went from 30s, ice, snow, and days of clouds (yes that was last week) to pure spring bliss. One more major signpost of spring is just around the corner - Marathon Monday. And while all the weather leading up to it looks pretty quiet, we'll be living on the edge come race day.

For the most part over the last several days, there has been low confidence on the Friday-Monday time frame. Models have been all over the place with wildly different solutions, and there's often a higher amount of uncertainty the farther out you go in a forecast. However, everything is coming into much better agreement now and the overall setup is coming into focus. Of course, we know that just about anything can (and has) happened when it comes to weather in April. It can dump snow, pour rain, flood rivers, dip into the 10s, or rise into the 90s. So there's always some nervousness amongst runners and spectators when it comes to the Boston Marathon, and rightfully so.

GOES image of the huge nor'easter that nearly canceled the Boston Marathon for the first time in its history on April 16th, 2007.

Even in just the past 10 years we've had some wild Patriot's Day weather. Major heat (2012) forced the Boston Athletic Association to allow runners to defer to the following year if needed. Temps approached 90º and many required medical assistance. Then in 2007, a major nor'easter brought torrential rain (2-4" of it) and even knocked trees/debris down onto the course with gusts over 50mph. It left quite a mess and produced some of the worst running conditions in the history of the race. Back in the 1960s, snow squalls invaded 2 separate marathons. The quiet, comfortable day can be an elusive one. But the vast majority of the 118 Boston Marathons have been run in the 50s - which is exactly what most runners would like to see.

What we're watching for this year's running is a storm system developing to our west. A broad southwest flow aloft will help pump moisture from the Gulf of Mexico up toward New England, while a trough digs in across the Midwest. This will help push a pretty steady soaking into the area, but the question of timing is the key. In general, it's looking a lot more likely that rain will move in from SW to NE during the day, but not reach the course until the afternoon or evening. As we're still several days out, I'm sure the precise time frame will shift a little bit as we get closer. But I'm leaning toward a later-in-the-day arrival that would bring minimal impact to the race itself. In fact, we may be lucky enough to get near-perfect running weather before the storm system arrives, so long as the rain waits until after 5pm.

Here is where we stand as of right now. We'll be following the trends through the weekend and will provide updates online, on the air, and on WBZ NewsRadio 1030.

Very Likely:

- Cool temps (40s to low 50s)

- Winds out of the SE (a headwind for most of the course)

- Considerable clouds (especially toward midday/afternoon)

- Late day rain

Not Likely:

- Warmer than average temps

- Significant cold

- Steady morning rain

- Full sun

I'll be joining in with this cast of thousands on Monday, and I'm sure we all have somewhat different 'best case scenario' running weather in our minds! To me, near 50 and cloudy would be outstanding. I'd prefer a west wind, but beggars can't be choosers. The fact that we all just trained during the snowiest and, for long stretches, coldest winter ever recorded means that our bodies are prepped for cool weather, not warmth. While these past few days in the 60s to low 70s have been wonderful, it's actually been a little tougher to run! 65º feels hot, and if you recall last year there were a lot of people 'feeling the heat' when we had a high of 69º on race day. Last winter, particularly March, also trained our bodies to be ready for chilly weather. So anything in the 60s/70s and, heaven forbid, 80s, would not have been something to get excited about.

Bottom line is that so long as the steady rain can hold off until we get most of the members of Wave 4 off the course, this could all work out in our favor. And what have we all learned over these past two years? We're Boston Strong. Come rain, wind, or sun - we've got this. Overcoming adversity is what a marathon is all about. If all goes according to plan, the biggest adversity will be Heartbreak Hill and not Mother Nature!

Shameless plug: I am running in memory of my father, who passed away very suddenly 2 years ago. In order to make something positive out of this, I started up the Lost Acres Scholarship Fund for students in Massachusetts. If you are feeling particularly generous and would like to support this cause, you can do so via this website: www.crowdrise.com/LostAcresScholarship