A Seasonably Cool Week, With A Payoff At The End?

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Signs of spring abound as temperatures creep ever warmer. The trees are vivid green, the lawnmowers are now running on the weekends, and the smells from  backyard grills seem to be a little more pervasive than just a couple weeks ago. While many I've spoken with seem to think it hasn't been much of a mild stretch, believe it or not May is running WELL above average in Boston. So far the departure is nearly +4ºF! In Worcester, it's closer to +2ºF. But either way, it hasn't been a bad May. As we look forward to the rest of this week, it's mainly cool stuff to bring down those departures before a rebound for the coming weekend.

Today features a very similar setup to Monday. There's still a pool of cold air aloft, and an area of low pressure spinning to our east in the Atlantic. There are a couple of differences that will lead to just a bit of a different outcome. That storm system will be just a touch farther east, the cold pool is shifting a bit farther east, and air aloft is warming a hair. What that means for us is a little more sun than yesterday, a little less wind, slightly warmer temps, and a few less rain showers to deal with. The morning looks fantastic, with cumulus clouds filling in during the midday/afternoon hours. There should still be a few scattered showers around in the afternoon, but nothing that would cancel little league games or your round of post-work golf. Sea breezes should develop too, which means 50s in the afternoon near the coastline.

A chilly night follows that up, with clearing skies and lots of 40s. I think most, if not all, of our viewing area should stay away from frost. But we'll give that another look this evening and update you if there will be any frosty pockets by Wednesday am.

Umbrella status - if you like to play it extremely safe, bring one just in case on Tuesday. A better shot at putting one to good use on Wednesday, and the best chance to make your umbrella investment worth it looks to be Thursday.

Another disturbance glides our way on Wednesday, which should bring an increase in high/mid-level clouds. We should still manage to reach up through the 60s, which is average for this time of year. We'll also be watching a batch of rain showers, which will be heading our way too along the nose of a mid-level jet streak. At the moment it looks like these will arrive during the evening or overnight, any may impact the game at Fenway. I'd plan on bringing an umbrella for now, and temps will be cool in the grandstands (mainly 50s to near 60). We haven't had many balmy games at America's most beloved ballpark so far this year.

The wettest stretch of our forecast looks to be Wednesday night through Friday, and in particular during the day on Thursday. If you want to avoid mowing the lawn this week, Thursday is your excuse. An area of low pressure will develop to our south and keep the flow onshore. Very cool temps (50s) and areas of rain are likely for both Thursday and Friday, although we may manage near 60 on Friday. Look at the positive side...it'll help keep the fairways green!

At least once it gets to this point in the year, even after a cold spring, the water temperatures are warming. All local buoys are now over 50º, with some 40s still lurking in the Gulf of Maine. This means our 'worst case' onshore flow days are now with temps in the 50s.

As it stands right now, I'm optimistic that Mother Nature will get all this cool/unsettled weather out of her system during the week, and that the holiday weekend will feature much improved conditions! Some pop-up afternoon showers may still be an issue on Saturday, and perhaps some isolated thunderstorms on Sunday. But the Northeast trough may finally swing out for a bit and allow some ridging to build in from the west. So for now, it's 70s both Saturday and Sunday with just some scattered rain to dodge. Memorial Day itself looks the best! We may make a run at 80 with a dry day. You know how it goes - that's 7 days out so of course the outlook can change as we get closer. Hopefully we won't have to tweak it and everyone will be able soak in some sun!