Well now that July is over, it marks that 2/3rds of meteorological summer is over. 2 of the three warmest months of the year are over with only one to go. At this point, August heat may be tough to come by. Good news to some, but I know there are plenty of summer lovers who could use a couple more days of summer warmth before throwing in the towel on the summer of 2013.
July 2013 obviously was a hot one averaging 3-4 degrees above normal and for some cities the hottest July on record. Considering July is known as the hottest month of the year on average, that could make this the hottest month on record…for places like Hartford and Providence, which is quite impressive for our short little lifetimes.
High clouds are streaming through New England tonight as high pressure pulls off the coast wrapping in a slightly more humid airmass with a light southerly flow up the east coast.
High pressure will remain close enough to us Thursday that we will manage to squeeze out another good day with sunny to Partly sunny skies. Highs will again be in the Lwr 80′s inland with 70′s at the coast. Clouds will be increasing form east to west during the afternoon. By the evening commute, skies will be cloudy.
The clouds will be in advance of a line of showers which will be spreading from west to east during the evening hours. A cold front from the Great lakes will link up with moisture from the southeast and mid-Atlantic states. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will form along this front…especially in NY, PA, NJ, MD, DE where 1-2″ of rain may fall. As this line of rain and storms marches east Thursday night it will weaken. Rain will push into western new England by the end of the day and spread eastward during the later evening. Heaviest rain for eastern MA will likely happen somewhere around 10 PM Thursday night to 6 AM Friday morning. Most areas will see about a quarter to 3/4″ inches of rain with some areas in the west seeing 1+” of rain within embedded storms.
This front will quickly push off the coast on Friday with drying WSW winds following in behind the front with increasing sun from west to east for the late morning and afternoon. Highs will spike to near 83-85 degrees by afternoon in the sunshine.
A huge broad upper level low in Canada will keep a trough firmly in place from the Great lakes to the Northeast for the first week or two of August. This upper level low will spin in successive shortwaves into the trough which will track towards the northeast, trigger periodic showers, breakdown any humidity, and supply reinforcing shots of cooler drier air from time to time to keep the overall airmass running seasonally cool to open this third month of meteorological summer with temps mainly in the 70′s
The weekend will be spent timing these short waves, as will much of next week. The timing of the showers will likely change and evolve as our models can struggle handling the energy pouring into the trough, so adjustment to the timing of showers will continue in the extended forecast. Nothing is looking too wet, just the potential for brief showers is more likely.
Saturday will feature, mixed skies along with WSW winds ahead of an approaching front with may trigger a brief shower with some building clouds. Highs will still be warm around 82-85 degrees. Lowering humidity with the front pushing off the coast. Sunday will be cooler, less humid with breezy NW winds. Partly sunny skies with the risk of a few more pop up showers in the afternoon with another shortwave rolling through the upper level trough. It is part of a larger pattern which should continue for a while to suppress the heat and humidity and keep the periodic showers going from time to time. Another front pushes through late next Tuesday and Friday as well…but again….the timing of the showers is pure speculation this far out The timing will change but the upper level pattern won’t…for now….at least through August 15th.