What an awesome summer weekend out there! Perfect weather for enjoying the beach with plenty of sunshine and a steady breeze from the SW. Highs are climbing into the 80’s near 90 this afternoon, with a few areas across SNH and the Merrimack Valley likely to climb into the Lwr 90’s once again to put on exclamation point on this early season heat wave. Along the south coast, winds are picking up from the SW where winds will be gusting 25-35 at times. Clouds have lifted for sunshine along the south coast. Temps will remain cooler with wind off the water in the Lwr-mid 70’s.
The Severe Storms Prediction Center issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8 PM tonight for Northern Western and Central New England.Those excluded from the watch are closer to the coast which will have less of a chance of sever storms because of the cooling influence of the ocean. The marine air has pushed into SE MA with the SW winds. keeping temps near 80-85 inland in Bristol and Plymouth counties. We are tracking a pre-frontal trough which will be pushing into western New England later today. Most of us will enjoy a perfectly fine day, but further inland the atmosphere is ripe for thunderstorms to begin to form especially by mid-late afternoon.
Thunderstorms will have the best chance of being severe with winds over 58 mph or 3/4=” size hail in Northern and Western New England. There are plenty of ingredients in play in this warm moist environment which will allow a strong line of storms to form and begin to track inland during the mid-late afternoon hours. These storms will come with heavy rain, lightning, hail, and the potential of damaging straight line winds. As heavy rain falls it drags down heavy cold air aloft…along with strong winds which mix down to the ground. The best chance of tree or power line damage form these storms resides in Northern and Western New England closer to the instability. The SPC has mentioned that these storms will be rotating, thanks to turning of wind with height. There is a slight risk of an isolated tornado. We will watch and track these storms as they push into the region later today.
These storms will be triggered by a pre-frontal trough out ahead of the main cold front. As the sun gets lower in the sky, the thunderstorms will have a tendency to become weaker and become heavy rain makers and more scattered in nature…compared to the more mature storms in the west which will have hail and strong winds. Showers will diminish after midnight for a bit of an overnight lull…The main cold front will begin to push into New England Monday where it will slow to a crawl and showers and storms will be triggered to ride up along the front across SE MA, up to to Boston for the morning commute. Some of these showers and storm could on and off all day along the front for the afternoon before the front finally pushes off the coast. Rain could locally be heavy with some localize flooding in the downpours across SE MA.
The front will push off the coast with dry comfortable air on the move for Monday night, which will last right through the midweek with sunshine, low humidity, light onshore winds and highs in mid 70’s inland, and 60’s at the coast. Welcome relief from the heat!
We will have to watch for a tropical low coming into the Gulf of Mexico next week. This could become Tropical Strom Andrea with moisture being directed up the east coast with the potential for scattered showers and storms for Friday though Saturday.
Overall looking at the extended range it looks like a wet pattern for the next 2 weeks for the eastern half of thee nation…Not an ideal set up or summer lovers.
Make the best of it today!