Gonna Be Some Changes Made
Gonna Be Some Changes Made is a song written by Bruce Hornsby, and it is exactly how I feel when I look at the satellite, our computer models and my 7 Day forecast. In a very changeable pattern, it appears every day will come with something new and interesting to talk about for the foreseeable future. Timing when all these upcoming changes will happen has been a struggle this weekend as my 7 Day forecast continues to be fine tuned and “evolve.” On Friday, it looked like we could see a few mid 70′s this week. Yesterday, looked like we would be more near 70 in the warmth this week. Today, it appears it will be a struggle to reach 70 this week, despite the mild look with an upper level ridge in place and the amount of warmth currently in place across the nation. Despite these cooler changes, a somewhat mild week can still be expected. But a trend to cool before the month is through is in the works!
This Sunday is almost a repeat of Saturday. A weak front pushed through during the early morning with a few early showers and sprinkles. Breaks of sun followed behind the front, but nothing is coming easy this weekend. There is a lot of upper level energy crossing over the region today supplying a reinforcing shot of cooler air aloft which will try to mix down to the ground in a developing breeze this afternoon. This cooler air aloft being directed into New England will act as a destabilzer this afternoon as diurnal clouds are building with the heating of the day. Clouds are thickening and unleashing a few hit or miss scattered showers. Skies will be mixed with times of sun, times of clouds with a breeze from the WNW keeping highs seasonally cool with highs near 50-55. The building clouds will create a cloudy appearance to the sky and may build just enough this afternoon to pop off a few showers again, especially across NNE. It terms of the sun today…my advice is to catch it while you can! Under the clouds…it is cool and gloomy again…even a bit wet! Ugh!
High pressure will continue to build just south of New England tonight with partly cloudy skies and light and variable winds. The high will be just off our coast Monday morning for a calm, cool tranquil morning for the start of the Marathon. Despite a few high-mid level clouds crossing through Monday there will plenty of sunshine to enjoy, with a light onshore wind. Temps will begin to warm up across the interior as highs will climb into the lwr 60′s in western New England, while further east highs will remain in the mid-upper 50′s closer to the penetrating sea breeze. Temps will be in the mid 40′s at the start of the Marathon, Lwr-mid 50′s inland away from the coast. Boston should warm into the Lwr 50′s by midday before the cooler sea breeze should cool temps into the 40′s along the eastern facing beaches from the Cape to Cape Ann by 2 PM.
Winds will be shifting from the SE to the SW on Tuesday along with a warm front which will be lifting through the region. A milder flow of air will push up the east coast and highs will climb into the 60′s. Just as quickly as we start the warm up, a cold front will be approaching from the west bring increasing clouds and the risk of a few late day showers, which could last through Tuesday Night and early Wednesday before sliding off the coast. This front will break down the warmth as it slides off the coast with winds shifting back to the NE on Wednesday with increasing afternoon sun. Temps should remain in the 50′s and Lwr 60′s with these cooler onshore winds. The timing of this front has been huge in the changes of temperature in our extended forecast. The forecast still remains tricky and any more changes in the timing and placement of this front could have more implications on the extended forecast.
This stalled front along the south coast will slowly begin push back north as a warm front Thursday. ESE winds along with clouds will help to keep it fairly cool in the 50′s to near 60. As the front lifts north, SW winds should develop later and push another round of mild air up the east coast into New England Friday with highs once again climbing into the 60′s nearing 70. Again clouds will be on the increase in this mild, moist, humid flow. A cold front will be pushing through late Friday through Saturday morning with a period of steadier showers and maybe even a few thunderstorms. Clearing skies with cooler temps in the mid 50′s will follow in for next weekend.
Looking ahead a trough will be in place in the Northeast from April 22nd through the 27 which should keep temps below average at time with a cool feel for this time of year. It appears it will be a struggle to get much warmth hear through the end of the month. By April 27th the jetstream should begin to flatten enough to allow the warmth to return again into the Northeast for the start of May. There are concerns and question if this trough in the Northeast may be a sign of things to come for the Northeast for May…and maybe even the summer as a ridge becomes establishing in the western states. The lag from this winter continues. It is still snowing in the Rockies, the Northern Plains, and in Canada. There is still snow on the ground in these northern latitudes, helping to refrigerate the airmasses above them. This cold still lingers and is playing a factor on our spring weather. Along with a variety of other factors which are still very much in play.