The weather maker that has been slamming much of the country all week will soak us this afternoon with a half inch up to an inch or so of rain. There is warm air streaming over colder air at lower levels creating an overrunning setup as decent dynamics arrive from the southwest to enhance the lifting and crank out the rain. The layer of subfreezing air is thick enough to support ice pellets ie. sleet arriving at ground level in places this afternoon. There would be nothing more than a few intervals of ice pellets mixed in with the rain in spots near the MA Pike ranging up to a period of rain and sleet mix farther north toward Route 2 with perhaps a coating of sleet closer to the NH border and more than that into northern New England. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY remains posted for the afternoon for especially higher terrain places from northwestern Worcester County north and west for accumulating sleet up to or more than an inch! Allow extra time for travel in these slippery areas. The east-northeasterly wind will be ramping up to 15-30 mph with a few spikes to 40 mph at some exposed coastal locations. There will be no coastal flooding around the high tide time of 1:30 this afternoon. It’s a bone-chilling soggy afternoon with temperatures as much as 20 degrees below the average farther north and west of Boston where they are holding in the range of 33-38  to about 5-10 degrees below the average over southeastern MA and Cape Cod where lower to middle 40s prevail. In Boston, the temperature will fluctuate between 39 and 41. all afternoon and through the night. It remains to be seen if the Red Sox/Rays game will go as scheduled. The heavy rain of the afternoon will have dwindled to drizzle by early evening with only a threat of a few passing showers and finer mist after that.

A spinoff low pressure system moving off the NJ coast early this afternoon will pass close to Nantucket by early evening then exit the area taking its shield of rain and wind. Tomorrow morning will start cloudy but an influx of drier air will trigger some clearing and with some sunshine, a nice recovery to the middle to upper 50s is anticipated. There will be a 10-20 mph northwest to westerly breeze. During the evening, an upper level disturbance and surface trough will pass through and that may be enough to create a brief shower in spots especially north and west of Boston with some snow for the northern mountains. After that, a second impulse will deliver lots of clouds and perhaps a few spotty mostly light showers Sunday morning. As this feature departs, it should turn sunnier Sunday afternoon with a brisk and gusty west-northwesterly wind to 15-30 mph.

Looking ahead, all systems GO for the Boston Marathon on Monday. Click on this link to read my detailed forecast for the big race. You can watch full coverage only on WBZ. Patriots Day will start chilly on the Lexington Green and Hopkinton and all other places as well with lows in the lower to middle 30s. There will be varying amounts of patchy cloudiness visible as a weakening warm frontal boundary slowly moves through the region. The light wind will turn into an east to southeasterly sea breeze up to 6-12 mph. Temperatures will rise well into the 50s away from the ocean with upper 40s to near 50 closer to the coast. After that, there will be a surge of much warmer air late Monday night and certainly for all of Tuesday. High temperatures that day will match and perhaps slightly exceed last Tuesday’s maximums of 71-76. As a cold front sinks into the region, it is currently unclear if it’s as warm on Wednesday or some cooling comes down from the north and in from the ocean. We shall see.

Todd Gutner poss a fresh blog this evening.

Have a happy and safe weekend!


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