A Very Merry Christmas!
I love to see the snow gently falling on Christmas morning. It makes it extra festive and, thankfully, it will not impact travelers because it remains light. There will be nothing more than a coating in most locations with up to a half-inch or so possible in only a few spots except over Cape Cod, the South Coast, southern Plymouth County and southern Bristol County where mainly rain will occur. The weak system will shift offshore so the snow and rain will end from west to east later this morning to midday. There might be some breaks developing in the overcast this afternoon. The wind will be light from the north and the temperature will max out in the middle 30s.
All attention is now becoming focused on a storm brewing over eastern Texas this morning. Plentiful dynamics are available to produce an outbreak of severe weather in the lower Mississippi Valley/Gulf Coast area as the day progresses. The storm will churn northeastward toward the Tennessee Valley to Virginia in the next 24-36 hours to be located over outer Cape Cod by early Thursday afternoon. This system is tapping a rich moisture supply so copious amounts of precipitation will be generated along and north of it path.
After morning sunshine tomorrow, the cloudiness will be increasing in the afternoon from this approaching storm. Temperatures should rise from the middle 20s early in the morning to the upper 30s by 2pm. The precipitation shield will advance into New England tomorrow evening from southwest to northeast. Expect its arrival in the Boston area from 9-11pm. Most of the region will experience a start as snow except closer to the South Coast and over Cape Cod. The rain line will advance deeper inland and northward as time goes by tomorrow night as strengthening easterly winds ramp into gales. A HIGH WIND WATCH is already posted for the South Coast and Cape Cod. Along the MA Pike, the potential exists for near an inch of snow near Boston ranging up to 2-4″ across that portion of Worcester County before a switch to rain. Farther north, up to 4-8″ of snow could accumulate closer to Route 2 from parts of Middlesex County west and north. Over much of northern New England except perhaps near the NH Seacoast and the York County coastal area of ME, expect 6-12″+. The mix zone should shift into southern NH early Thursday morning then stall. The heavy rain, mix and snow will taper off to showers Thursday afternoon except the heavy snow will linger over the northern mountains where more than a foot cannot be ruled out. On Thursday, temperatures may reach the upper 40s to lower 50s on Cape Cod ranging down to the middle 40s in the Boston area to the upper 30s to near 40 farther north and west of the city to the 30s up north. As the storm moves out over the Gulf of ME, colder air will circulate back toward the south and east resulting in rain showers flipping to snow showers. The strong winds will back to northeast to northerly during Thursday then northwesterly later in the day.
Looking ahead, there will be less wind but it will still be gusty and blustery on Friday especially in the morning as it becomes partly sunny. After that, we’ll be watching the next weather maker developing along the Gulf Coast early Saturday. This will evolve into a major storm as well but its projected track is not etched in stone. Latest guidance suggests this system will be steered farther south meaning we might only be brushed by snow and gusty northeast to northerly winds on Sunday. A slight wobble westward and we’d be talking about a significant snowfall. Clearly, it is a low confidence forecast at this time. One at a time please.
I hope you have a wonderful day with your family and friends.
Joe Joyce delivers his latest WBZ AccuWeather Forecast later today for Todd Gutner and I shall return early tomorrow morning for Melissa Mack.