Signs of Winter…
Winter’s chill has returned in the wake of last night’s coldfront…temps tumbled from 57 degrees at midnight to their current numbers in the upper 30s…and still falling. These next few days will be dominated by high pressure supplying ample sunshine and temperatures will gradually warm back up close to 50 by Friday. A coldfront will slide through on Saturday with a band of clouds and cooler air by the end of the day.
By the end of the weekend, things start to get more interesting around here. Behind that coldfront, high pressure in Southern Canada will be strengthening allowing for colder air to bleed south into New England. Northerly winds will be establishing the cold through the day on Sunday, at the same time a weak storm system ejecting out of the four corners of the SW US will gain a little strength as it moves quickly into the Northeast. Precipitation will overrun the cold dome of air and start falling in the afternoon and continue through the night. With limited upper level support the storm never really gets overly powerful but several small pieces of upper level energy pass overhead leading to an ongoing precip event into Monday. The big question is what will the precip type be…with the high to our north, it looks like that at the very least an icy or snowy mix will be falling at the start late Sunday. There are some indications that the low and mid-levels will warm Sunday night changing wintry precip to rain. But, achieving that outcome at night, with a cold high to the north is very difficult. The most likely scenario is that the cold gets lodged into the interior keeping a wintry mix going. The coast and extreme Southern New England stands the best chance at warming up but if the surface low travels south of New England then the cold could get locked in there too…leading to sleet or freezing rain not too far from the water’s edge. As the storm pulls away on Monday, a fresh surge of cold would likely get pulled down behind it and the wintry mix could end as a period of snow.
Nothing is set in stone at this point as a lot can shift…but signs are pointing to a colder and stormy pattern late in the weekend and early next week beginning with this wintry mix event late Sunday into Monday.