Big Cool Down Before Spring Warm Up
If you were a wake during the early morning you were greeted with a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. It was enough for a light coating to make things very slick before dawn. Northern Worcester county into SNH was even worse…with 1-3″ of fallen snow, then a coating of ice before the eventual changeover to fog and drizzle. A nasty batch of weather which will still be problematic through the morning across the far north on colder surfaces. Winds this morning are out of the SE.
Check: Current Conditions
SW flow aloft is ejecting quite a moisture plume up the east coast keeping abundant cloud cover ahead of an approaching cold front. The heaviest precipitation has pushed offshore but lingering drizzle and fog in saturated airmass remains making for a very dismal day so far. Showers will try to redevelop moving from SW to NE right around midday as the front begins to push off the coast. Showers will linger into the early afternoon, then winds will shift to the SW behind the front. The drying and warming trend will develop this afternoon. Clouds should begin to break after 2 PM. Temps will respond to SW winds with highs climbing into the upper 40’s and Lwr 50’s. Some areas along the south coast climb to near 55.
Late day clearing will last into the early evening, before another wave of low pressure begins to ride up along the front offshore. This low will spread increasing high clouds into southern New England tonight through tomorrow. Clouds will be numerous at the coast Sunday with brighter skies inland. Winds will be shifting to the WNW and directing in a cooler airmass in the Lwr-mid 40’s for highs. The real cold shot of air will wait for Sunday night and Monday. As the cooler air arrives it may trigger a few brief late snow showers or flurries Sunday around Sunset before skies clear and temps drop into the 20’s.
Monday will feature building high pressure with breezy NW winds. It will be a very cold day considering the mild feel of most of this winter. Highs will only be in the 20’s north and Lwr-mid 30’s south. This will be one of the coldest airmasses we have seen since December. High pressure will slide east through the mid-Atlantic Tuesday. The cold air will begin to lift out. Seasonal temps in the sunshine with highs in the mid 30’s to near 40. Once the high pulls off the coast…the spring-like warm up will begin in earnest.
Wednesday will be an amazing “spring” day with SW winds with near 100% of the sun. 850 mb temps climb to 8 C which once mixed down to the surface will allow temps to climb into the 50’s to near 60. The SW flow with mild dry conditions will last through Thursday with temps climbing into the lwr 60’s. Can the warmth hold into Friday? The question is can the upper level ridge hold on the east coast and prevent a front from pushing through until late Friday with showers or even a thunderstorm? The Euro model says yes…the GFS says no. If the front holds off, highs will be in the mid 60’s. If the front pushes through a bit quicker we will be in the 40’s
Either way…the front will push though with a period of rain and embedded storms and give way to another weekend cool down…before another broadscale warming trend for the week of March 12th to the 18th. This looks like a pretty amazing stretch of weather coming up for the next two weeks. So even though this weekend is not ideal…there is plenty to like waiting in the wings.