Big Cool Down Before Spring Warm Up

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

If you were a wake during the early morning you were greeted with a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. It was enough for a light coating to make things very slick before dawn. Northern Worcester county into SNH was even worse…with 1-3″ of fallen snow, then a coating of ice before the eventual changeover to fog and drizzle. A nasty batch of weather which will still be problematic through the morning across the far north on colder surfaces. Winds this morning are out of the SE. 

Check: Current Conditions

SW flow aloft is ejecting quite a moisture plume up the east coast keeping abundant cloud cover ahead of an approaching cold front. The heaviest precipitation has pushed offshore but lingering drizzle and fog in saturated airmass remains making for a very dismal day so far. Showers will try to redevelop moving from SW to NE right around midday as the front begins to push off the coast. Showers will linger into the early afternoon, then winds will shift to the SW behind the front. The drying and warming trend will develop this afternoon. Clouds should begin to break after 2 PM. Temps will respond to SW winds with highs climbing into the upper 40’s and Lwr 50’s. Some areas along the south coast climb to near 55.

Late day clearing will last into the early evening, before another wave of low pressure begins to ride up along the front offshore. This low will spread increasing high clouds into southern New England tonight through tomorrow. Clouds will be numerous at the coast Sunday with brighter skies inland. Winds will be shifting to the WNW and directing in a cooler airmass in the Lwr-mid 40’s for highs. The real cold shot of air will wait for Sunday night and Monday. As the cooler air arrives it may trigger a few brief late snow showers or flurries Sunday around Sunset before skies clear and temps drop into the 20’s.

Monday will feature building high pressure with breezy NW winds. It will be a very cold day considering the mild feel of most of this winter. Highs will only be in the 20’s north and Lwr-mid 30’s south. This will be one of the coldest airmasses we have seen since December. High pressure will slide east through the mid-Atlantic Tuesday. The cold air will begin to lift out. Seasonal temps in the sunshine with highs in the mid 30’s to near 40. Once the high pulls off the coast…the spring-like warm up will begin in earnest.

Wednesday will be an amazing “spring” day with SW winds with near 100% of the sun. 850 mb temps climb to 8 C which once mixed down to the surface will allow temps to climb into the 50’s to near 60. The SW flow with mild dry conditions will last through Thursday with temps climbing into the lwr 60’s. Can the warmth hold into Friday? The question is can the upper level ridge hold on the east coast and prevent a front from pushing through until late Friday with showers or even a thunderstorm?  The Euro model says yes…the GFS says no. If the front holds off, highs will be in the mid 60’s. If the front pushes through a bit quicker we will be in the 40’s

Either way…the front will push though with a period of rain and embedded storms and give way to another weekend cool down…before another broadscale warming trend for the week of March 12th to the 18th. This looks like a pretty amazing stretch of weather coming up for the next two weeks. So even though this weekend is not ideal…there is plenty to like waiting in the wings.

  • WeatherWizard

    Thank you Joe.

  • Stephen

    Joe Joyce, Mr. snowhater at it;s best!

    Mark my words…
    All this talk about this big warmup will never happen!

    • snow stinks

      mr snowhater–you peeps need to get a grip–snow sucks face it –unless your a skiier or skater—bring on spring–cook-outs and kids outside – baseball and all the fun things sping can offer!!! dork!!!

    • Tracy

      I agree with you!
      It’s 33 degrees and raining at my house!
      What happen to the 50’s today??
      And let’s not talk about the 2/12 inches of snow we received out here last night!
      (northern worcester county)

      • cirrus

        Give it time. The front has not pushed through yet. After 2PM he said.

      • weathergeek

        It is currently 47 degrees in Taunton and 51 degrees in Plymouth and the warm air is gradually moving north. If you actually read his post you will see that he said it will warm up later today.

      • Major Dundee

        ahhh…I think a basic course in reading comprehension would be wise for both Stephen and Tracy.

  • Greg

    Your all just jealous cause up here in northern worcestern county and points north and west we have a foot of snow on the ground and you sorry snowlovers east of us have nothing!!!


    • Franky

      Greg your so right!!
      The cry baby snowlovers need something to squawk about!
      There is so much snow here in nothern worcester county!
      Head to the coast…NADA!!!!

      By the way it’s almost 1:00 p.m. and it’s only 34 degrees at my house!
      I agree with Stacy’s comment above!
      The warm front will never penetrate this snowpack!
      I’t will go up and over the cold air!
      So much for Joe joyce’s weather forecast!

      • Major Dundee

        ahhh Franky…the lilt of of wit is beacon of sunshine in your own cloudy mind. Carry on

      • Major Dundee

        ahhh Franky…the lilt of your wit is beacon of sunshine in your own cloudy mind. Carry on

  • David White

    As for the timetable of the cold front passage on Friday, both the GFS and the Euro may be correct. But the GFS might sense a back door cold front that needs to come through first, then retreat, to allow the cold front to pass late on Friday or into the weekend. The warm weather will be nice, but don’t we have to beware at this time of the year, in fact on towards early summer, of backdoor fronts which cannot always be projected in long range outlooks, in fact at times nowcasted.

    Thanks Joe.

  • Baileyman

    Well it is great to be back from my 2 week vacation in Australia. What a beautiful island!!!!
    Anyway, just want to tell u all that this might be my last blog. I know u will all miss me terribly if this is my last entry but, thanks for the kind words and for all of u recognizing me as the best blog MET around!
    I will leave u with my final assessment of this season. After looking at the various weather charts and computer information u can all take stock in what i will now state. WINTER IS OVER! i personally guarantee u all have seen the last of the snow until next winter season. So jot down what i said on this date and take it to the bank or Vegas if u like. THERE WILL BE NO MORE SNOW UNTIL NEXT SEASON! That is my humble promise to u all!
    So i bid u all a fawn farewell! Sincerely your weather Guru! Peace out!

    • Scott

      Thanks Thomas….. alot of fake Mets. on here… Me & you can predict better than them!

    • Baileyman

      i mean fond farewell

      • you can have it

        paul needs his binkie and some warm milk—what a tool!!!!!

      • Paul

        Drop dead you wishcaster that predicted snow every week like all the other Mets in New England!
        I personally guarantee you it will snow again between now and April!
        This is how benign winters like this play out you fool!

    • scott

      BM says not more snow for the rest of the year…..This maybe the only time he is right this year after numerous incorrect weather predicting all winter season!

      • Thomas

        that was not baileyman! he is a fake

    • Big-D

      Obviously NOT the real BaileyMan as the name in my post is how he would always spell his name. If you are going to impersonate him, at least get his name right…

  • Harry

    Gee, where’s the warm front that was suppose to come bursting thru after 2 O’clock today??
    It’s still 37 degree’s at my house!!
    Morons!! keep listening to your favorite wishcasters on your local tv stations!
    We have so much snow on the ground up here in northern worcester county!!

    • you can have it

      you can hace the slop—and it will be gone soon—you enjoy your mud pies!!!!

    • David White

      Yes it is a disappointment when warm fronts don’t come through as predicted. It might happen yet today, and the models all but swear it will happen Tuesday evening into Wednesday. I think models can underestimate the coastal flow and water temps that slow if not halt the northeastward progression of warm fronts, especially at this time of the year. But hey let’s think positive we will hit upper fifties or low sixties during the upcoming week.

  • man-o-wx

    can’t wait for next winter’s correction but due to global climate change don’t expect anything earth shattering. Al Gore exults.

  • man-o-wx

    Should this pattern continue, we should experience another relatively hot dry summer. Jim Cantore is attributing the early season severe weather to climate change. ain’t it the truth!

  • man-o-wx

    with the exception of WCVB-TV all the news outlets got the winter wrong. Old farmer’s almanac was the worst. Given the execration one can only conclude that ghgs threw a monkey wrench into the long-range winter forecasts. OR earth is moving inexorably closer to the sun.

  • Melissa

    And next winter when Boston gets 80+ inches of snow you’ll all be making up other anomalies!!
    You people are insane on this blog!!!
    Move on people!!
    Were just going thru a cycle right now unless you want to listen to all the tools out there!!
    The earth is 4 billion years old!!

  • Smith

    60-65 lat week. who are they kidding? just one more think they will hype all week and it will never happen, like today being in the 50’s.

    • Bob

      You are so right!
      There forgetting about the cold ocean and easterly wind!
      Or maybe there still praying for the snow we never received this winter!

  • Sue

    Waiting on the 50 degrees we were promised. One more piece of evidence for crappy weather forecasting. At least they are consistent.

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