Snow To Come In 3 Waves Wednesday And Thursday
BOSTON (CBS) - This is one event that meteorologists will be glad when it is over.
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This is truly a complex forecast for many reasons.
Weather models this morning are far from agreeing on a final solution, conflicted on how far north the rain/snow line gets and also on how potent each of the waves of precipitation will be.
I preface our forecast with these remarks, not to confuse or as a cop-out, but just to reiterate that things are likely to change in the next 24 hours.
Watch Melissa Mack's forecast:
So here goes.
This will be a prolonged event with several "waves" of precipitation starting Wednesday afternoon and not completely tapering until Thursday night.
WAVE 1
The most significant wave will likely be the first one. This will arrive as snow Wednesday afternoon in most locations, perhaps as rain along the coast.
By Wednesday evening it will be snowing everywhere at a good clip and should start to accumulate, despite the mild ground.
This will make for a challenging commute especially if you are driving later Wednesday evening.
This first wave of snow will drop a widespread 1-to-3 inches by midnight and then things get interesting.
WAVE 2
Milder air will be trying to make inroads in southern New England from the Southwest.
A rain/snow line will setup in parts of Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts overnight and most likely make it just about to Boston by early Thursday morning.
Obviously, this is key to our forecast. The farther north the mixing gets, the less snow and vice versa.
At this point, we are forecasting this line to get to about the Mass Pike and stall during Thursday morning.
Therefore, the initial 1-to-3 inches of snow south of the Pike should be just about all they get from this event.
A second wave of steady precipitation will arrive Thursday morning and this could drop another 1-to-3 inches of snow, mainly north and west of Boston where the air remains cold enough for all snow.
This would bring totals north of the Mass Pike to 3-to-6 inches by mid-to-late Thursday morning.
WAVE 3
A third and final wave is likely late Thursday afternoon and evening, this one centered more in central New England.
This could add another inch or two to areas well north and west of Boston, including southwest New Hampshire and northern Worcester County where final snow totals could top 6 inches.
There will be very important updates this evening and no doubt a few adjustments will have to be made to this forecast.
There is certainly room for snow totals to increase and also for school closings on Thursday, so stick with us!
You can follow Terry on Twitter at @TerryWBZ.
