Bright sunshine this morning with high pressure pulling off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Clouds will increase this afternoon ahead of an energized short wave which will push through tonight. Highs temps should be able to climb into the mid 40′s ahead of the increasing PM clouds and west winds.
Check: Current Conditions
A snow squall formed in western/central New York and will be arriving in western New England this afternoon. Temps will be mild ahead of it’s arrival so a few showers are possible late with snow in the hills. Once the sun sets with evaporational cooling…any mix will change to snow. The best chance to see snow flying will be between 5 PM and 10 PM this evening. Very cold air aloft will make for steep lapse rates and the potential for a snow squall to hold together as the short wave pushes through. Tracking NW-SE across the region, it appears the best chance of light accumulating snows will be from S. VT into SNE. Temps will once again be too warm on the ground to allow snow to accumulate…maybe a coating for most, but the NW hills will have the best chance for 1-2″ of snowfall…especially in any squall which could briefly move through with a heavier burst of snow. Temps will drop with clearing skies to below freezing overnight…so there is the potential for some slick spots later tonight and early Sunday.
High pressure follows back in for Sunday with abundant sunshine and slightly cooler temps with highs in the Lwr 40′s. The moisture loaded storm for the Gulf will continue to track to the Carolinas and through the Mid-Atlantic states with a mix of snow and rain. Best chance 6″ of snow will be in the hills of the Virginias. High clouds will filter back into SNE from this storm by Sunday night. Once again, the split flow for the jetstream can not phase with the northern stream and we are left with storms riding south and eventually phasing into stronger storms well east of us over the open waters. That is all she wrote on that. We know the story in this snowless and incredibly mild winter with each month averaging about 5 degrees above normal.
While many are enjoying the break from winter in what can be an awfully cold and drawn out season, we certainly sympathize with those who count on snow for income. An awfully tough season financially to those who plow. Even the ski areas have taken a bit of a hit, but in all reality…the skiing could not be better considering the lack of snow we have had. Wide open skiing will make for the perfect thing to do over the vacation week with the kids.
Beyond this weekend, Cool Breezy and even blustery NW winds on President’s day will make of a cooler day with highs in the 30′s to near 40. High pressure will be building in over us, so winds should diminish by afternoon. The high will pull off the coast Tuesday with warmer SW winds with highs back into the mid 40′s. Maybe a brief shower/ sprinkle along with warm advection clouds. Highs will climb to near 50 or greater Wednesday With SW flow up the east coast.
Another low Wednesday night into Thursday will track west of New England. More moisture will be coming out of the Gulf…but again…it appears to be another “split flow” event. Moisture rides well south with moisture starved energy pushing through New England with mild air…accounting to a few passing showers…or snow flakes if it happens at night…The GFS has a more robust look for Thursday with a bit more phasing…but nothing to get excited about with amix of rain and snow in the NW hills. An what do you know…another storm will ride south by next weekend with high pressure keeping us dry and cooler for next weekend. No real Arctic air in Canada so any shot of cold air will not be very impressive. Plus the lack of blocking in the jetstream pattern will prevent any cold from locking in as usual.
Take this as you may…but I am sure you have seen the Climate Predictions Center forecast for the month of March. A big signal for warmth in the eastern half of the nation. Is this going to be the least snowy winter on record? All we need is and 1.3″ to come in second place. At this point, I want to see us break the record! It is going to be close.