Active Weather Pattern…But No Big Storms

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

Bright sunshine for Sunday with weak high pressure. Breezy west winds have been supplying cooler air this morning behind a departing front which moved through last night. This will make highs today a bit cooler from Saturday with temps this afternoon able to climb into the Lwr 40’s. Still very nice for this time of year with temps running about 5-8 degrees above normal.

A short wave back towards the Great lakes will spin through New England late tonight through the early morning hours Monday. This will make for scattered snow showers overnight through about 7 AM Monday. There is the potential for a few flakes for the morning commute and maybe even a few steadier snow showers between 5-7 AM. They will be short lived and quickly off the coast. Some colder spots or grassy surfaces may see a light dusting. Sunshine will return in full Monday with cooler breezy WNW winds. A reinforcing shot of colder air Monday will keep temps in the 30’s to near 40.

Warmer air from the midwest will begin to push eastward. This will form a warm front which will begin to approach New England late on Monday night.  A band of light accumulating snow will form north of this front and push into New England early Tuesday AM…I think this batch of precip has a better chance of providing a coating to an 1″ of snow early on Tuesday morning around the commuting hours. It may mix to a few raindrops south of Boston. This warm from will push into southern New England and stall. Plenty of clouds Tuesday with the warm front. Northern New England will remain on the cooler cloudy snowy side of the front in the 30’s. SNE may see some afternoon breaks and see some warmer sir sneak in by days end to climb into the lwr 40’s.  A transition day.

Wednesday the warmer air will be transported in full into New England with the warm front progressing northward with SW winds. A low will track from Lake Superior to Northern Maine. Temps will be able to climb to 50-55. A cold front along with this low may trigger a few showers. A mild unsettled day.

Behind this front cooler air will begin to return Thursday with a wind shift back to the NW, but temps should still be able to hold in the mid 40’s before the colder air really arrives Thursday night and Friday. Once past Wednesday models have been all over the place in terms of what happens towards next weekend.  They are having a very hard time handling the energy rounding the base of a deep trough which starts to develop in the eastern US during that time. I have seen so many different solutions, I just do not know what to believe at this point.

Something is going to develop along the east coast which should have ample moisture to work with. Colder air will be pressing into the trough clashing with the milder air along the east coast to aid in storm formation. The question is the track. Upper level winds could direct this south of us or right into New England in the form of rain and snow Friday…like the Euro says…but right now…there is very little agreement in any solution…so we will have to let that marinate a bit before we proclaim any certainty.

After next weekend…we are seeing at least a colder signal with a persistent trough in the Northeast through the 12th. Some of that brutally cold air, which is currently up in Alaska, maybe be able to spill further into and Canada and be directed into the northeast in a moderated form by it’s arrival. Something to watch for.  


  • Michael

    What up Joe?
    You and Barry and the best and pure straight up the most informed met dudes around! Just want to say i for 1 do miss the snow!!!!! yep! sue me

    but i think February will be a big snow month

    i missed the BM but i think it was him legit that just served up a post and i love to read his blogs cause my memory of him was that he nailed most of last winters stormy pattern so hope it is solid to find copy and paste his from last nght or whatever

    peace out all wish winter sports would resume here in natick ma

    • StanelyACED

      I think you mean this one


      Hey Everyone,
      Well I simply enjoy reading your blogs Barry! In fact, with this uneventful winter season (thus far) there has been little to banter about and as a result, I have refrained from blogging on this site. Your analysis is exceptional and if Vegas had odds on the probability of this remaining a “relatively” snowless winter- when all is said and done, they would certainly side with a BELOW NORMAL SNOWFALL for this winter season.
      But, for those of you who a dreaming of a white February?! Take heart! There is still a possibility that things could still change! Because all experienced forecasters and weather enthusiasts are aware of one thing. The future is yet to unfold and ANYTHING can still occur when it comes to weather. There are always exceptions to the rule! So perhaps stratospheric warming and a dramatic equalizing pattern change will occur in February?! Which might in the end, take our winter season in a direction that is closer to the norm?! Only Time will tell.
      Have a great Sunday everyone!

      January 29, 2012 at 9:18 am | Reply | Report comment

      • BaileyMan

        By the way, thank you StanelyAced but, there is no need to paste my old blog onto this latest blog. Besides in the future such an action might only serve to undermine my credibility. You see I would prefer they forget my older blogs should I prove wrong?! Ha! …kidding Stanley..well? sort of

  • Cam

    The “chance for snow” almost every day is ridiculous. It’s just pretty much wishful thinking on your part.

  • man-o-wx

    Hey I dont see any atlantic Brant on the ocean. maybe the flock I saw were late migrants. February could be very stormy and cold after all.

  • BaileyMan

    Hey Again Everyone
    I just want to make a quick blog. I am heading out to a wake unfortunately. I just looked at the latest 12z EURO and IF? It was to verify?! Wow!! Winter would be back with a vengeance from Feb 3 thru the 8th and beyond! Cold and snow would re-appear with some fortitude! So stay tuned~
    Take care all

    • Topkatt88

      The Euro is entering a slump. Use with caution.

      • Topkatt88

        I’m here daily BM, just don’t post too often.

        I agree about the “flux’ … but it’s done this, and each time we get bad model forecasts of sustained cold in the East and it misses the fact the PV stretches out across Canada and then the mean trough retrogrades and pieces come east, give us brief cool/cold shots, and then it just recycles itself again. In the name of persistence I’m going to keep going with this scenario until it changes for sure. I’d rather be wrong once missing the trigger pull than being wrong every day by pulling the trigger too early. :-)

      • BaileyMan

        Hey Everyone!
        Already back from a wake….just checking in again.
        Oh i agree ..and its usual early storm calls have been subpar this year my friend! However, the atmosphere is about to go into a flux state. So although I would sure hedge my bets on receiving a good “old fasion” nor’Easter at this point (especially enlight of this persistently uneventful winter season) It is something to watch for sure and, it is NOT out of the question that the tide is about to turn in the not too distant future!
        And nice to see you on here Topkatt88 I truly miss your insightful blogs! Don’t be a stranger! ha

      • tuna

        nice to see you guys back hope you can blog some more always good reads

  • BaileyMan

    Sorry I cannot tolerate my typos
    So I meant to say, In light not>>enlight and Old Fashioned not>>old fasion! Sorry…I am truly better than to suffer such an egregious syntactically error ridden entry! Ugh

    • John

      If you miss seeing old people here why did you not respond to my posting to you inviting you to a very civil weather blog. I was ticked off. So many people want you there. If you are interested blog here saying you are and we will send you the contact information. It’s the last time you will be invited. You will not regret that you did. ball is in your hands.

      • BaileyMan

        John? First of all Hi
        Secondly, I do not recall seeing your posting inviting me. If i overlooked it I apologize! But thanks for the information and I would be glad to check it out my friend. Just post it on here once again. Thanks and have a great night!

  • Rob Rose

    Oh you Wishcasters! You have been calling for a cold and snowy January…didn’t happen…now a cold and snow February ? Probably not…the NAO is not about to go negative! Just give it up! And the AO (according to the Ensemble) is about to go positive again! Really! Knock it off! Just because you want it…DOES NOT MEAN IT WILL HAPPEN! GET OVER IT…IT’s NOT WINTER THIS YEAR! You too Joe Joyce you have been calling for a turnaround since the 1st of the year! JUST FORCAST WHAT THE MODELS TELL YOU ! Jeesh!

    • Italo

      We could end up getting a turn of events, and a powerful snowstorm, at some time during the remainder of this winter or into early spring. Read: April Fool’s Day Storm several years back, when we got clobbered following a very mild stretch. So although personally I prefer what we have now, I defer respectfully to acknowledging the power and presence of a still very wintry Mother Nature this time of the year!

  • David White


    Not quite sure what you mean by the Euro going into a slump. Last year at about this time you thought the negative NAO would be the rule rather than the exception. And indeed it was for most of the winter, and almost all of the spring. But it has been more neural to positive since June, thus temps averaging above normal since June. At about that time the serious tornados hit western Mass. And then there was dear Irene in August, and the October snowstorm. Since then, conditions have thankfully been more placid, if warmer than normal. Do you think the NAO may soon go negative?

    • Topkatt88

      The Euro has gone into a couple episodes of poor forecasting, though less so than the GFS. None of this is a surprise.

      As far as the NAO goes, it may dip to neutral to negative briefly, but I think this is more likely an exception to the overall rule.

      I couldn’t look at things right now and forecast a cold/snowy Feb. If I was going to forecast cold I would be it would more likely turn out cold and drier than normal thanks to continued lack of jet stream phasing. Only a moderate to strongly negative NAO would change this, but not too strongly negative or all of a sudden all the storms would be Mid Atlantic ones.

      We’re not really in a situation where we can get it to snow easily around here.

  • Scott

    I look at the 7 day forecast & 4 days have snow it in…. I’ll be watching & counting….I agree with Rob Rose…. Just tell us the accurate weather , not for your wishing thinking cause it gets cold. Ch 4 said after the 15th of Jan.. it would be stormy until the end of the month. It wasn’t. Unfortunately Harvey & Pete on the other stations “tell” what really going to happen & the truth is what really matters. I can’t wait for spring, so there will be no trouble forecasting the weather.

  • TurfGuy

    It was nice to come on tonight and see familiar people posting again about the weather. Last winters weather was great and kept us all on our toes wether we liked it or not. Although this winter has been a bust thus far, I hope things will pick up for all of us weather junkies and we finally get some weather to talk about. If only bz could moderate the blog more to keep people from just posting negative comments about the weather department and the other posters who genuinely want to talk about the weather.

    • summit12

      well said… it is a shame that people feel the need to come on here and bash others who are merely offering their opinions of what may happen…. obviously the models aren’t set in stone, I think we all realize that, but what is the harm in talking about the possibilities of pattern changes or snow?

      some of us really do enjoy hearing about what may happen over the next few weeks even if it doesn’t pan out as expected. If you don’t enjoy the discussion, leave. I can’t understand why anyone would feel as though they have to come one here and USE CAPITAL LETTERS to criticize others for talking about potential pattern changes and snowfalls…

  • mark455Base


    • Topkatt88

      I can’t speak for BaileyMan, but it was certainly me.

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