Active Weather Pattern…But No Big Storms
Bright sunshine for Sunday with weak high pressure. Breezy west winds have been supplying cooler air this morning behind a departing front which moved through last night. This will make highs today a bit cooler from Saturday with temps this afternoon able to climb into the Lwr 40′s. Still very nice for this time of year with temps running about 5-8 degrees above normal.
A short wave back towards the Great lakes will spin through New England late tonight through the early morning hours Monday. This will make for scattered snow showers overnight through about 7 AM Monday. There is the potential for a few flakes for the morning commute and maybe even a few steadier snow showers between 5-7 AM. They will be short lived and quickly off the coast. Some colder spots or grassy surfaces may see a light dusting. Sunshine will return in full Monday with cooler breezy WNW winds. A reinforcing shot of colder air Monday will keep temps in the 30′s to near 40.
Warmer air from the midwest will begin to push eastward. This will form a warm front which will begin to approach New England late on Monday night. A band of light accumulating snow will form north of this front and push into New England early Tuesday AM…I think this batch of precip has a better chance of providing a coating to an 1″ of snow early on Tuesday morning around the commuting hours. It may mix to a few raindrops south of Boston. This warm from will push into southern New England and stall. Plenty of clouds Tuesday with the warm front. Northern New England will remain on the cooler cloudy snowy side of the front in the 30′s. SNE may see some afternoon breaks and see some warmer sir sneak in by days end to climb into the lwr 40′s. A transition day.
Wednesday the warmer air will be transported in full into New England with the warm front progressing northward with SW winds. A low will track from Lake Superior to Northern Maine. Temps will be able to climb to 50-55. A cold front along with this low may trigger a few showers. A mild unsettled day.
Behind this front cooler air will begin to return Thursday with a wind shift back to the NW, but temps should still be able to hold in the mid 40′s before the colder air really arrives Thursday night and Friday. Once past Wednesday models have been all over the place in terms of what happens towards next weekend. They are having a very hard time handling the energy rounding the base of a deep trough which starts to develop in the eastern US during that time. I have seen so many different solutions, I just do not know what to believe at this point.
Something is going to develop along the east coast which should have ample moisture to work with. Colder air will be pressing into the trough clashing with the milder air along the east coast to aid in storm formation. The question is the track. Upper level winds could direct this south of us or right into New England in the form of rain and snow Friday…like the Euro says…but right now…there is very little agreement in any solution…so we will have to let that marinate a bit before we proclaim any certainty.
After next weekend…we are seeing at least a colder signal with a persistent trough in the Northeast through the 12th. Some of that brutally cold air, which is currently up in Alaska, maybe be able to spill further into and Canada and be directed into the northeast in a moderated form by it’s arrival. Something to watch for.