4th Warmest November On Record
It's the talk of the town. This unusually warm November following an anomalous inland mega snowfall in late October is the subject of conversation everywhere I go. Folks were installing their exterior holiday lights dressed in shorts today. What gives? Admittedly, I'm loving this weather right along with many many others. My son and I had a great bike ride today and, hey, we're all saving bigtime thanks to significantly reduced heating demands. It's all good except for the snow lovers, the ski resort folks, the skiers and boarders. With that said, last Wednesday's storm production of 10-15" of snow up north enabled many resorts to open up a few trails this holiday weekend. Will we pay dearly for this charmed existence anytime soon? Well, it appears that the last 4 days of this month will feature much above average temperatures so it will likely go into the record books as the 4th warmest November ever. November 1975 was the warmest and that was followed by a season of slightly above average snowfall. However, based upon a study of the past 25 years, Novembers that were more than +1.5 degrees ( 1988, 90, 94, 99, 2001, 06, 09), the following seasonal snowfalls were significantly below average. For example, November 1990 was +3.3 degrees including 3 record highs of 76 on the 3rd, 74 on the 28th and 69 on the 29th! That winter season produced only 50% of the average snowfall! When I posted my winter outlook early this month, I was concerned about the magnitude of blocking that was crucial to yielding above average snowfall. Other important global atmospheric and oceanic factors were favorable for colder than average weather with above average snowfall for December into January. This postulation is highly dependent upon high latitude blocking which was very strong the first part of last winter. I reiterated that the absence of high latitude volcanism and a rebounding solar flux were acting against blockage. Consequently, we would need to focus on the potential for sudden stratospheric warming. Presently, it appears that long-period blocking is much less likely this season but occasional sorter bursts of blocking will produce the more common cycles oscillating between warm spells and cold blasts. In other words, an intense nonstop 6-week period of cold and snow like last winter is unlikely. We will continue to monitor the myriad of global variables that control our seasonal climate and weather patterns and provide updates and any warranted revisions.
In the meantime, a weak backdoor cold front will slide down through eastern New England overnight so an onshore wind will make it cooler on the coastal plain tomorrow with temperatures down almost 10 degrees from today. Expect 54 there up to 60 farther inland with varying amounts of cloudiness and sunshine. The front will retreat northward late tomorrow so Monday's wind will be southwesterly yielding temperatures back up to 60-65 again except on the South Coast. A developing vigorous upper level storm system will be producing a surface storm over the Gulf States. The center of this system will track up the spine of the Appalachians with its arc of heavier rainfall and even some wet snow in the highest elevations. As more moist air is transported in from the Atlantic on Tuesday, spotty showers and mist will likely break out in the region. The strip of heavier rain will pivot through Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The upper level system will open up into a sharp trough and lift through later in the day Wednesday triggering another quick batch of showers and isolated thunder. Drier air circulates in to reveal some sunshine on Thursday as it turns cooler. A strong cold front will surge through Friday night with rain showers changing to some heavier snow showers. A week from today will be cold and windy with partly to mostly sunny weather with highs finally below average in the lower 40s.
Joe Joyce delivers his AccuWeather Forecast in the morning and I shall return later in the day.
Enjoy the final day of the holiday weekend.
