Well, the rain is finally here after much discussion. From here on out we are pretty much nowcasting the bursts of heavier rain which will be pushing through in the next 24 hours. Our first batch of rain has arrived in CT, RI & SE MA and is pushing toward the Pike already at 8 AM. Rain will be filling in for the rest of the morning. Periodic heavy rain will track up the coast through the afternoon and evening delivering a widespread 1-2″ of rainfall with locally heavier amounts unto 3″ in areas which end up seeing more persistent pockets of rain track through mixed in with quieter moments. The peak of the rain will be from 12 PM-12 AM…but a few downpours after midnight can not be ruled out even though there will be a trend to taper to showers overnight through early Thursday.
A warm front south of New England will push north North today, but will struggle to push farther north than Plymouth. Southeast MA will get into the warmer side of this front this afternoon with temps climbing to 60-65. Northwest of Boston, with East Northeast winds temps will remain around 55 to 60. Winds out of the SE will pick up late today with gust to 40 mph for south facing beaches. The warm front will become a boundary/trigger for downpours to ride up along through the evening hours. This will help to keep the heaviest amounts of rain across Eastern MA and RI. Upper level winds from the south will be directing these periodic showers and downpours up the coast from the Fla and the Carolinas into the overnight hours. temps will remain steady through the overnight in the 50′s and lwrs 60′s as southerly winds will push warmer air northward.
After a few early morning showers around dawn, a dry slot will follow in behind our departing low with gust winds out of the south where winds will still gust from 30 to 40 mph. Skies will become partly sunny by midday and afternoon with temps responding to the mild flow and increasing sun with highs in the upper 60′s and lwr 70′s. The upper low over the Ohio Valley will begin to lift into Southern Canada through the weekend. A weak surface trough will remain close by this weekend, but it now appears the cold pool of air will shrink and lift NW of New England. This will have a stabilizing effect, for a bit more sunshine as High pressure builds over us at the surface. This means temps to be a bit warmer than I was initially thinking…Mid 60′s Friday, Lwr 60′s Sat. Near 60 Sunday & Monday.. In summary, dry stretch of mild then cooler but seasonable weather heading into the weekend.