Saturday Night Category 4 Ophelia was 185 miles to NE of of Bermuda with 140 mph winds. An amazingly powerful storm, currently Cat 3 with 125 mph winds, which will remain over the open ocean and make a close pass to Newfoundland. Though this storm is staying way out to sea, some of the moisture from Ophelia is getting caught up and directed into New England today by the upper level winds of the jetstream providing a very warm moist inflow. A deep trough lies in place on the east coast with deep cutoff low which continues to sit over the mid- Atlantic states.
On Sunday, we will track another band of steady rainfall moving in off the water. A few scattered showers and drizzle in Eastern MA in the morning, but the trend will be for a batch of heavier rain to shift into Northern New England as energy passes around the upper low to our south. Rain will be locally heavy across the north at times. Meanwhile, With these cloudy and damp conditions at the coast, will keep temps in the upper 50′s & lwr 60′s from SNH to NE MA where clouds will be more persistant. Clouds are already breaking with partial sunshine in eastern MA. This bodes well for a pretty decent day with highs in the mid-upper 60′s, especially for areas which could see more sun by afternoon like RI and Southeast MA wher temps will climb to near 70.
Plenty of lingering low clouds Monday…but Another mid-level dry slot will pass through allowing for a fair weather day and mix of clouds/some sun and increasing clouds from the south ahead of the next short wave as the upper low approaches. Late day showers are possible south. Either way, Monday night into Tuesday will be another round of showers or rain before our cutoff low finally gets on the move for the midweek. The Euro & Canadian have a more pronounced slower look to the rainfall Tuesday with steadier periodic showers . The GFS model is quicker and more progressive with the departing low with only few scattered showers Tuesday and warmer temps near 70. Leaning towards the slower and slightly more robust, cooler solution. Building high pressure follows in behind our departing low with increasing sunshine and unseasonably cool temps for Wed-Friday with highs only in the upper 50′s and lwr 60′s. Very cool during the overnights to end the week may provide the first frost of the season for interior western and central valleys. Upper level ridging will quickly shift east for the weekend with temps rapidly warming into the 60′s and 70′s for the coming Columbus Day Weekend
The 12th Annual Southern New England Weather Conference (SNEWC) is right around the corner! The conference is Saturday Oct. 22nd at Meditech in Canton, MA. All the details and registration can be found at http://www.sneweatherconf.org/
The entire WBZ weather team will be there. Stop on by and say hi!