Irene Makes Landfall, What Can Mass. Expect?
UPDATE 4:35pm: The center of the storm is re-emerging off the Virgina coast and will slide up the East Coast, likely just offshore. It will make landfall on Long Island midday Sunday and go over Springfield Massachusetts area by mid afternoon. Minimal hurricane conditions expected along the South Coast and Tropical Storm conditions inland areas. The heaviest rain will fall 5am-5pm Sunday. Winds will be strong out of the SSE 8am-4pm and then shift to the WNW and remain very gusty through 10pm or so. That is 12-18 hours of tropical storm force wind gusts (40mph+), with all the rain soaked ground, that should bring down numerous trees and create widespread power outages.
Even though landfall is likely to occur near low tide, storm surge is likely to still be 4-8ft along South Shore...this remains the biggest concern with Irene.
Hurricane Irene made landfall at 7:30 this morning near Cape Lookout, North Carolina as a category 1 hurricane with max sustained winds of 85 mph. While the storm has weakened overnight it is still a very significant hurricane with hurricane force winds extending out 90 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extending out as far as 260 miles from the center. This is a bit larger than most hurricanes, so while the center may not super tight with an obvious eye visible, Irene is still packing a good punch for a wide area. The official forecast track and the track now forecast by most weather models is for Irene to hug the coastline of the Mid-Atlantic, perhaps staying just offshore and making a second landfall on Long Island around midday on Sunday. It will then move over New England, likely between Springfield and Worcester MA around 2-3pm and accelerate quickly northward into Northern New England by evening. The official NHC forecast keeps Irene as a category 1 hurricane until its landfall in New England...I have some doubts about that due to the cooler ocean waters and interaction with land over the Mid Atlantic. Nonetheless, Irene will be at minimum, a strong Tropical Storm when it reaches our latitude midday Sunday. We can still expect hurricane force wind gusts along the South Coast and a very significant storm surge there as well.
Timeline:
Outer rain bands will likely begin to affect the South Coast midday today and rotate northward during this afternoon. These will be tropical-like downpours and could include a few embedded thunderstorms. By dawn Sunday morning we will enter the outer circulation of Irene and the very heavy, steady rainfall. Winds will pick up as Sunday morning progresses out of the ESE and the peak of the storm (rain and wind) will be from 8am-4pm. After 4pm the storm will be passed our latitude, winds will shift to the WNW and rain will shutoff...winds will remain gusty but growing less intense through the evening.
Storm Surge/Tides:
Again, our biggest concern from this event remains at the coast. The seas have been steadily building over the last few days and will continue to do so. Seas will be as high as 15-20ft near or just offshore. The high tides are astronomically high due to the new moon...high tides are at 8am and 8pm on the South Coast and 11am and 11pm on the East Coast. Biggest concern for coastal flooding and storm surge is clearly on the South Coast and in the Bays. The timing of the storms arrival may end up saving these areas from a devastating surge with the center arriving during low tide (which wont resemble a low tide), but storm surge could easily be 4-8ft, especially in the Bays.
Winds:
We are continuing to forecast hurricane force gusts all along the South Coast (60-90mph). Tropical Storm force winds are likely for the rest of the region (40-60mph). This can and will cause significant tree damage and numerous power outages. If you haven't already you should secure all loose objects outdoors in preparation.
Rain:
Heaviest rain will be west of the track, in Western MA and Western New England where 5-10" could fall. 2-5" of rain are likely in Central MA and lower amounts in Eastern Sections. Widespread inland flooding is not likely in Central and Eastern MA, but urban and poor drainage flooding is certain. Rivers should hold up fine, but smaller streams could reach bankfull.
So while Irene is continuing to weaken, it still is a very dangerous storm, especially for South Coastal residents. Everyone should monitor updates to the forecast in the next 24 hours.
