The Real Deal
Muggy weather is in place and a cold front is on the way so expect a band of showers edging eastward from Worcester County and western Middlesex County to blossom into thunderstorms in scattered areas as the afternoon progresses. Some of these may become strong with gusty winds, downpours, hail and dangerous lightning but I am not expecting a widespread outbreak of severe weather. The action fades this evening and tomorrow will be a quiet day featuring a mix of sunshine and clouds with light wind and slightly less humid conditions. After overnight lows in the upper 60s, temperatures will rise up to the lower to middle 80s except a bit cooler at the beaches due to a sea breeze. There will also not be much wind out of the southeast on Saturday as well. However, showery rains will break during the day and some of the rain could be heavy in spots as it becomes very humid again.
As of 11am today, Irene is about 645 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The hurricane is moving north-northwest near 13 mph with maximum sustained winds at 115 mph. This is a dangerous minimal Category 3 Hurricane. For further details, logon to the National Hurricane Center. The next 24-36 hours will be very telling pertaining to the magnitude of the impact here in New England. Presently, the hurricane experts are predicting some slight strengthening. The amount of curvature in the trajectory is paramount in determining how much of the circulation will encounter land from North Carolina into the Delmarva area resulting in any degree off weakening. Additionally, a ramp up in vertical wind shear may also be instrumental in some decay of the hurricane. IMO, it appears that an eventual north-northeast movement will direct the hurricane on a similar path to Hurricane Gloria in 1985. Check out this link and I believe that the story of Gloria is very much what we could encounter this time around on this Sunday afternoon into the evening. Bottomline is that I expect a similar wind and rain structure to Gloria. The forward speed of Irene and the projected track may produce wind gusts of 100-115 on eastern Long Island weakening to 80-90mph on the CT coastline and 75-80 on the RI coastline possibly eastward to Buzzards Bay. Over much of the rest of the region, my thinking is that 50-75 mph winds with a few higher gusts are probable with the highest bursts at exposed south coastal locations and over the higher hilltops. This will rip off twigs, branches and uproot some trees plus peel off some shingles and pieces of sidings of some structures in the higher wind areas of 75 mph. Rainfall will be most prolific farther north and west of Boston closer to the storm path. Totals of more than 5" are possible in these areas while rain is more sporadic in the form of a few squalls over southeastern MA and Cape Cod. In fact, between the passing squalls, brief glimpses of the sun are possible in those areas while the rain is torrential much of the time over western CT, central and western MA, much of VT, NH and ME except near the coastal plain. Currently, the strongest winds will blow and gust Sunday afternoon and evening. This means that much of the incoming tide will be enhanced by the onshore flow coming in from the east-southeast over east coastal beaches and southeast to south on the New England South Coast. Consequently, the scheduled high tide of 11.3 feet at 11:24pm will be enhanced by a potential surge of a few feet except perhaps up to 5 or 6 feet on the South Coast especially into Narragansett and Buzzards Bay. CAVEAT: Keep in mind that all of this discussion is a preliminary prognosis and is subject to change if the track of this system deviates even slightly. Right now, I believe this to be a very reasonable portrait of thing to come. Although we wish that this hurricane would abruptly turn out to sea, confidence is high that it will be blocked from doing so.
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Enjoy the rest of the day!
