Tracking Storms…Severe & Tropical

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce

5 Tracking Storms...Severe & Tropical

It is a hazy humid mix of sunshine and clouds today. SW winds will help to keeps temps warm in the Mid 80’s for most, cooler on the Cape. This will be another pretty good beach day, despite the haze…it will be dry and warm.

A cold front is on the move. Scattered storms have been forming in New York state and these will be pushing into western New England during the afternoon . The Severe storms prediction center has been busy analyzing the severe thunderstorm threat across the region and have much of New England, excluding the coast in a slight risk for severe storms.

12 Tracking Storms...Severe & Tropical

In these storms, there will be the potential for damaging winds and hail. The greatest risk of this will be in central and western new England where the SPC has us in 15%  chance in these areas with less of a chance for damaging severe storms towards the coast.

31 Tracking Storms...Severe & Tropical

4 Tracking Storms...Severe & Tropical

The warm humid airmass will give fuel to the storms as they move east, but the stronger upper level winds from the SW thanks to a vigorous trough digging in, will create strong updrafts and the potential for rotating storms which may trigger and isolated tornado. Again, the best chance of this will be in western New England, SE NY and NE PA. I think the greatest threat of tornadoes is in PA today…but we will watch how this all develops.

2 Tracking Storms...Severe & Tropical

Deep low level moisture along with this increased lift in the atmosphere should create storms loaded with rain as precipitable water levels across the Northeast are upto 1-1.5″ which will help to deposit some heavy rain when the storms move through. These storms will start to gather west during the mid-afternoon, but the cold front will still be far enough west to keep the coast mainly dry through the daylight hours.

The cold front will begin it’s push  tonight. Storms in the west will be pushing eastward during the evening. By Midnight, more widespread showers and storms will be finally pushing through Worcester county and heading into eastern MA for some early morning downpours and thunder. Without the energy of the sun, it will be hard for the storms to maintain their severity, but heavy rain and gusty winds are likely with passage of this front.

The cold front will be off the coast Monday morning with drier, less humid air moving in from west to east along with slightly cooler temps. Cooler air will also be moving in aloft, so building cumulus are likely during the afternoon. Temps in the 70’s and Lwr 80’s

High pressure and low humidity for Tuesday and Wednesday, gorgeous sunshine in the 70’s Tues, a bit warmer Wednesday…80-85

Thursday will be in the mid 80’s with increased humidity ahead of an approaching cold front which could give a late shower or thunderstorm. Behind that…more high pressure for a good start to the weekend. After that…all bets are off as we will then have to see what is coming out of the tropics and what this means for our weather for final week of August.

Tropical Update:

As you know, we now have Tropical storm Irene  with 50 mph sustained winds. This storm is moving into a favorable environment for strengthening and will likely become a hurricane and possible a powerful storm.  We will have to see how this storm reacts as it tracks near the islands of Puerto Rico, Hispanola and Cuba. The upper level ridge is expected to weaken just enough to allow a turn to the NW which will start the storm on a turn to Florida and a re-energizing of the storm.  Models are showing more consistency in it’s track with quite a few showing a powerful hurricane slamming into southern Florida. It also could hug the east coast of FLA and move further up the coast towards Georgia or the Carolinas. Places like Miami and Cape Canaveral should be on guard. It is still very early for any certainty…but the point is…there is a threat for a strong hurricane to impact the US coastline later this week. Where ever this storm hits it likely pack a serious punch. No landfalling storms in the past 2 years has officials worried about storm complacency and lack of preparation.  We will have to track the heavy rain from the storm that will likely push up the coast from this storm during the week of the 28-30th of August.

7 Tracking Storms...Severe & Tropical

  • David White

    Thanks Joe. Another fine blog. Worth waiting a little bit for.

  • Chicken Pot Pie

    Thanks Joe, is Melissa Mack back tomorrow?

  • Joe Joyce

    Sorry for the delay…but my hands are full through 9AM…I get this blog posted as soon as I can right after the shows are finished.

    • David White

      Thanks Joe. You are doing your best.

  • Joe Joyce

    Severe storms are definitely possible in western and central MA & NH from 2- 6 PM…not quite so sure about eastern MA…would not rule it out…most of the activity waits for late tonight for East MA

  • Philip

    Mike, the weekend newscasts run between 5 am – 9am.

  • Andrea Aint Here

    Mike….go back to bed…switch to decaf and say Hi to your wife Andrea for us…

  • Italo

    From the storms we just had come through here in the Revere area in last hour, I’d say there was a little bit of severe quality to them, with wind gusts and sideways driving rain out of nowhere. I think the NWS has to do a bit of a better job in focusing on sending out warnings and alerts on more immediate tangible weather events–such as imminent severe weather popping up in obviously existing tropical weather conditions, like today’s in advance of the approaching cold front–and not focus so much on the possible effects on our area of storms 8 or 9 days away, or using 3 or 4 different ways to label warnings for heatwave conditions, or all the other new watch and warning types they seem to think of and throw out there each year. Meanwhile, they miss rainstorms and thunderstorms that laypeople can see approaching with their own eyes.

    • Topkatt88

      I think sometimes they run into the problem of these cells acting up in such a very small area for such a very short period of time, and the conditions still fall below warning criteria, so nothing gets issued.

      I’ve always had some questions about the criteria used for severe storms anyway. But I can also see how frustrating it can be for people to hear of a warning for a storm moving their way only to have it do very little because the cell was only strong for a matter of minutes, and was weak by the time it got to them. I think met’s need to just continue to stress the variability of convection. I had someone write me on FB the other day saying “You must be loving this hail” about a storm that went through Boston, when I am 12 miles away. I had to remind her that just because you see it one place it is not doing it everywhere.

      • Italo

        I’m surprised that Suffolk County isn’t included in this evening’s watch, but so many areas around us are and with all the convection going on/storms walling up to the west, northwest and southwest of us. But the NWS may be busy right now trying to put up a Busy Wind & Hold Onto Your Hat Advisory in the meantime. ;)

  • Matt Souza

    unstable humid, warm air will creat perfect conditions for thunderstorm development. I am putting a 3 on my thunderstorm scale for today tonight and monday for areas outside of 495. a 2 around 495 and a 1 near the coast.

    thunderstorm scale
    1 0-20% effecting your area isolated severe weather
    2 20-40 effecting your area chance of severe weather
    3 40-80% effecting your area scattered severe weather
    4 80%+ effecting your area widespread severe weather
    5 80%+ effecting your areawidespread severe weather with a chance of tornadoes
    Also the whole east coast has to monitor this tropical storm as it could hit florida right on and stay over land and move out and not effect the northeast or it can hug the coast and hit the caralinas we would have to watch forrain or it could hug the whole east coast . and be in the form of a tropical storm. off our coast
    i see two long range models saying the same thing it makes land fall near miami and then heads back over the atlantic and it hugs the entire coast line . but do not take this as there is going to be a storm for us in new england probably some rough seas thats all form this thing for us new englanders

    • Topkatt88

      Far to early to call the type of impact, if any, it will have on New England, in my opinion. If I was a betting person, I would not place money on a Miami landfall. I’d put my chips on the SC coast this far out. Once that part of the track is certain, then we’ll see about any potential influence on New England.

    • Andrea Aint Here

      Deb=Andrea….lonely and depressed

  • WeatherWizard

    Thanks Joe.

  • Joe Joyce

    I take it Mike got moderated? Did I miss something? Sounds like it got interesting or even insulting? Oh well…Looks like those severe storms in Eastern MA Mike said were going to happen late today are not panning out. Too bad. That storm in Revere popped out of nowhere. Lonely cell but nasty for boaters

    • Italo

      Joe, that storm here in Revere early this p.m. was like something out of an old movie…what a 10-minute taste of South Florida tropical craziness! ;-o

  • Nate

    Still waiting on the heavy storms. Only a little rain. Is that it???

    • Topkatt88

      Best dynamics for storms come through eastern MA tonight, but that still doesn’t mean everyone will get nailed. It just means we’re under threat through most of the night.

  • Snow Time

    How do you predict a storm like yesterday in Halifax? One sweep of the radar you see a little green spot, the next sweep a big red and orange blob that dumped a lot of rain in a short time. I don’t think you can predict except say hit and miss storms some may be severe.Thanks for the latest Joe.

  • Weather Genius

    Hurricane Irene looks like “the big one” with almost 100% certainty of delivery a once in a century blow to New England in a direct hit. Most estimations show the storm paking winds of 155+ MPH and 18-34 inches of rain with locally heavier amounts. It’s never too early to prepare for the almost certain evacuations.

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