Timing the Showers Arrival and Impact Sunday

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

 The variety of model solutions have my head in a tailspin on the arrival time of these showers Sunday. As high pressure pulls off the coast today, Moisture from the Carolinas will track up through the mid-Atlantic states and into New England Early tomorrow morning. The concern is the timing of the eastward progression of the rain. Let’s put the variety of options on the table and see if we can find the answer.

12 NAM Has rain tracking from CT into Western MA during the morning and lifting north. Eastern New England remains dry, and warm, but SE winds keep it a bit cooler at coast. High pressure off the coast strong enough to keep sunday dry for most

06Z GFS has a wet early morning in CT which weakens and does not advance eastward. High pressure hold and keeps Eastern MA dry through the afternoon

WRF is dry all day Sunday and has pretty much all the rain missing us entirely.

WSi RPM has rain pushing into CT during the late morning and afternoon, keeps Eastern MA dry through the day with the arrival of rain showers in the 6-8 PM time period

The ever consistant 00 Z Euro has rain in western New England during the morning and tracking into VT and NH during the afternoon keeping Eastern MA dry through the daylight hours

SUNY MM5 has rain at the  south coast of CT, with rain advancing northward during the afternoon. Not a nice looking mid-late afternoon for most in southern New England

SREF has a wetter appearance for Sunday with rain in the west during the morning and spreading east during the afternoon

So there are a variety of solutions with the majority having high pressure  holding on long and strong enough to keep the rain away for most of the daylight hours for Eastern MA.

Clouds will continue to gradually increase and thicken through the weekend. While the coast should remain dry tomorrow, the risk inland for  showers increases, especially once you get west of Worcester. The clouds and cool SE winds will keep temps in the 70’s near 80. The warm spot will be NH and ME in the Lwr 80’s. Only in the upper 60’s and Lwr 70’s where it will be raining out west.

The rain in full begins Sunday night. The heaviest rain should move through late Sunday night and Monday morning with a wave of low pressure tracking very close to the south coast. Energy coming in from the Great Lakes, Midwest will link up with a moist feed up the Atlantic sea board to create a period of heavier downpours during this time. Rain will taper to showers Monday Afternoon. We will have to watch a secondary low forming along the front which could keep clouds locked in Tuesday along with much lighter scattered showers lingering. If this all comes together, these downpours may deliver an additional 1-3″ of rainfall from Sunday Night-Tues AM which could cause more urban flooding in brief downpours.

Monday and Tuesday will feature below normal temps  near 70-75. High pressure builds in for the midweek with sunshine and warming temps back to near 80.

  • David White

    Thanks Joe for the forecast especially the different model scenarios. A gold star to the model that comes closest to verifying! Although the atmosphere can keep changing.

  • Hadi

    I would take the high resolution models when we are 24-36 hrs ie the SREF and WWR.

  • Italo

    Bye-bye to our area’s traditional only 5 or 6 weeks of consistent not only summer, but nice weather once annually in Boston–hello again to raw, damp rainstorms that come in and last half a week or more. Arghhh! ;)

  • Matt

    Sure would have been nice if you focused on today and why it certainly wasn’t the MOSTLY SUNNY. 1-3 inches of rain is way too high.

  • KWM-Hingham

    Italo. Yeah it sometimes can seem that way. Last year (the exception not the rule) was totally different. IMHO its a little more than 5 or 6 weeks…more like 8 or 9 to me. But then again that’s just my opinion. Also living on the North Shore is different than even on the South Shore (I know I lived in Winthrop for 8 years). Also I’m sure that people living south and west of 128 or 495 would think differently as the dreaded east winds have less of an impact on them in the early summer.

  • Matt Souza

    i have a feeling tomorrow the precip will try to work it self in through the afternoon and evening
    western mass and ct from 12-4centeral mass and the rest of western areas 4-8
    the rest of centeral mass and areas west and south of boston and areas outside of 495 from 8-12 and then areas north and west of boston up to nh boarder after midnight.
    eastern mass should remain dry for the day so it will be an okay beach day
    The rain will last through early monday evening. ending from sw to ne and from west to east.

  • shotime

    I just read an interesting article on foxnews.com about the company EarthRisk Technologies, and their claim to be able to forecast out 40 days. Has anyone else heard about this and their latest prediction… “Weather Warning: Searing Heat Wave May Hit East Coast in Late August, Scientists Predict”?

    • KWM-Hingham

      Just read the same article. Note that they just say “east coast” which covers a lot of ground and potentially leaves out New England or other areas. Will be interesting to see if this comes true or if its just a 21st century version of the Old Farmers Almanac.

    • Matt Souza

      just in time for school to start

      • andrea

        Works for me….

  • matt

    “While the coast should remain dry tomorrow…” Guess again… raining at 7:30 AM

  • Matt forgot to take his meds

    You are a P O S….

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