A tropical wave 750 miles to the east of the lesser Antilles is becoming better organized with thunderstorms and developing a center of circulation. Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be flown in tomorrow to get a better look at it. The National Hurricane Center has upgraded this to a 90 % chance that this will develop into a Tropical Cyclone. It will likely be a tropical depression by Sunday and quickly ramp up into Tropical Storm Emily, our 5th tropical storm of the season. Emily could very easily turn into a Hurricane as well in the coming days as it approaches Puerto Rico by Tuesday. It is currently moving WNW at 10-20 mph. If this storm heads towards Puerto Rico and moves into Haiti and Dominican Republic it will likely weaken and break apart but produce bad flooding for the islands. If the storm keep heading north instead, towards the Bahamas this could become more of a threat for the East coast…though impossible to say this far out. This is a storm we will be watching for the next few days as development is likely. Here is the thinking of the National Hurricane Center.
Our weather outlook here at home is fairly tranquil, but there is a little weather to watch once this awesome weekend is in the books. Today many areas approached 90…but most did not reach it. Sunday will be a tad cooler with Sunshine and highs in the mid 80′s. Lighter NW winds will shift onshore for a PM sea breeze which will cool many area beaches into the 70′s during the afternoon.
A little shortwave will pass through Sunday night which could provide a period of clouds other than that, winds will be shifting to the SW which will usher in warmer and more humid air for Monday under partly sunny skies with temps again climbing into the upper 80′s nearing 90. We will likely see a few scattered showers and storms erupting along a pre-frontal trough Monday afternoon into the early evening. With the cold front pushing offshore by Tuesday we will be back into the sunshine and drier air. cyclonic flow and cooler temps aloft will likely contribute to afternoon cumulus development along with breezy NW winds. Highs will still be warm in the Lwr-mid 80′s
Wednesday will get off to a dry start but we will have to track a wave of low pressure which may graze us with showers by evening or completely stay south of us. This low will help to bring in some cooler onshore winds by Thursday back into the 70′s and Lwr80′s with maybe some lingering clouds in the morning. Skies will become sunny by Friday with temps back into the mid 80′s before another chance of a few showers with a frontal passage over the weekend…the timing to be ironed out in the days to come. All in all…a pretty good week of weather to enjoy!