More Clouds, More Warmth, Next Weekend?

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

16 More Clouds, More Warmth, Next Weekend?

We are socked in the clouds this Sunday with cool onshore NE winds keeping temps running below normal. Very chilly at the coast with areas of drizzle and mist this morning. Temps at the beaches will likely remain in the 40’s and lwr 50’s. Farther inland a better chance of some warming into the 50’s and Lwr 60’s. with mid 60’s in the CT river valley. Mostly cloudy conditions will prevail, but there is the potential for a few breaks of sun in any thinner overcast this afternoon inland.

Weak high pressure over the Canadian maritimes is supplying just enough subsidence and dry air to make today tolerable enough despite the cool cloudy conditions. 24 More Clouds, More Warmth, Next Weekend?

A warm front will begin to move into the region tonight. Showers along the front are already in New York state. Most of the showers should hold off until later tonight/ after midnight. Overnight showers develops and push off the coast during the early AM commute Monday. It will take much of the day Monday  for the warm front to push through. This will mean more abundant cloud cover. SW winds will develop bringing warmer air from the west further east. Most locations will be climbing into the 60’s with mainly dry conditions. 35 More Clouds, More Warmth, Next Weekend?

A better chance of more showers even scattered storms late Monday and Monday night.

55 More Clouds, More Warmth, Next Weekend?

The warm front finally pushes offshore on Tuesday opening the door for some bonafide warmth! We will warm ahead of an approaching cold front with SW winds into the upper 70’s and Lwr 80’s. The warmest areas will be the usual suspects…CT river, Merrimack, Valley and SNH. Cooler onshore breezes for south facing coastlines. Maybe an isolated T’storm with cold front passage late in the day.

46 More Clouds, More Warmth, Next Weekend?

Front pushes off the coast Wednesday with winds turning back onshore. Wave of low pressure develops on the front for a rainy start to Wednesday. Temps will be back into the 50’s and 60’s.

65 More Clouds, More Warmth, Next Weekend?

The front across the south coast will begin to lift back north as a warm front Thursday which will bring us right back into the warm sector to end the week with temps climbing into the 70’s…as a low from the Plains will be tracking toward the Ohio Valley. This front will likely be the focus for afternoon thunderstorms to develop on.  It appears right now the focus of the energy for the best chance of showers or thunderstorms would be in the NW…meaning much of the region could end the week  on the dry, warm and muggy side.

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It is hard to believe, but once again an upper Low will be cutting off way south of New England heading into the Memorial day weekend. Right now it appears the main focus of the rain will be remaining west of us with heavier rains occurring in NY, the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, Carolinas. This could create more flooding for areas who have already seen too much water this spring.

82 More Clouds, More Warmth, Next Weekend?

Check out the Pattern for Memorial Day! Big upper low over the Carolinas, Ridge offshore blocking it’s eastward movement. Winds aloft from the SSE wrapping in a moist feed in off the Atlantic.

9 More Clouds, More Warmth, Next Weekend?

If the front lifts north, we will be on the drier warmer side of this pattern going into the weekend. Clouds will be thickening, with a cooler flow backing in off the water by Sunday. Eventually the showers will get to us before the weekend is through. The GFS has been more progressive with the showers with the front stuck over us….earlier by Saturday and wetter…The Euro has been slower and deeper. I feel the GFS will start to follow on to this later solution. Either way, we have some weather to watch heading into the Memorial day weekend. It does not look perfect by any means….but hopefully we will be able to break off a few moments in the early part of the weekend before conditions should start to go downhill. Some will have it much worse than us…so I guess we can consider ourselves lucky? Sure!

10 More Clouds, More Warmth, Next Weekend?

  • Snow Time

    Thanks Joe for the great news about the up coming week and weekend. I’m still holding out for a terrific Memorial Day weekend with all the bad weather missing us.

  • rainshine

    Joe, thanks for a great and informative blog.

  • David White

    Thanks alot Joe.

  • matt

    Don’t believe a word of anything he forecasts.

  • andrea

    if he says rain you can almost count on sun

  • Italo

    Joe, the graphics and explanations you always post in your blogs are great, and always help me to understand the science behind the visible weather that I see, more and better. The wait we’ve been experiencing will only make the warmer and nicer weather feel that much sweeter, when they finally arrive. I’m crossing my fingers right now, b/c I believe that early last week’s long-range showed 70s for this weekend that didn’t end up occurring all through our region–not the mets’ doing, that’s just Mother Nature’s, of course–but just hoping that now that our part of our planet is nearing its closest tilt and point to the Sun, geez it’d be nice to experience some of the spring warmth here that can be associated with that! Wishing everybody as great and as dry a rest of your weekend as is possible! ;)

  • Quizplz

    It looks this latest cut off will be the ‘deciding factor’ for our summer. If it lingers watch out summer. If not then the coast is clear. No pun intended.

    • Love Triiple H

      I’m not sure thats true, but it’s like I said, 3-5 weeks for pattern breakdown. This is just a continuation of the same stalled, wet, pattern we have been in for 2 + weeks now. Get ready for 2 more weeks of this before we see consistent warmer and drier weather. That means the middle of June :(

  • David White

    Forgive my repetition if I have said this before. Good points triple H and others as well. I think we will be in a better pattern by midJune and hopefully sooner. The GFS, for what it’s worth, projects the presently negative AO and NAO to trend positive by early June. Should that help break down Western Atlantic Ridging and Midwest troughing somewhat. Translating finally into a zonal flow for us. The summer of 2009 had zero solar activity, and was in a La Nina phase. Cool and wet for much of the summer for us. Last summer it was El nino and slight increase in Solar Activity. Triple H weather for an extended period. This summer there is a projection (according to Joe D’Aleo) for La Nina to decay and segue into La Nada (neutral ENSO), so perhaps this summer will be a balance between the last two. And more solar acitivity. In fact Jimmy James outlook of slightly above normal temps and near normal precipt. makes sense. Multiple sunny days with enough rain (passing showers) to soak our gardens a little, keep the lawns from going brown, and the brooks, reservoirs and lakes full.

  • Jofus

    My guess: Memorial Day weekend will actually be sunny and nice around here.

    Hopefully, the weather next Sunday (May 29th) will also be nice in Indianapolis and Charlotte for the big auto races.

  • Matt Souza

    i rather have the warmer , humid weather than the cool and damp . The storm that joe mention will not give us more than scattered showers and parly cloudy skies . how about people actually look at different models and not just based thier predictions or thoughts on one model. best day of the week will be tuesday. i agree with joe through thursday .

    • David White

      Hi Matt:

      What do you think about my comments above regarding teleconnections of oscillations, ENSO, and solar activity? Some say these can be more reliable than models, but I can understand if some find them mindboggling and prefer the models, but to be biased with just one model can lead to frustration and disappointment when it doesn’t verify.

      • Matt Souza

        yes over course they can they are god hints.

  • Merlin

    On a brighter side I have not had to water the garden yet this year.

  • Love Triple H

    Ok, maybe a more zonal flow by the weekend. Fringers crossed it holds. i still dont think the blocking patten is totally broken, but it looks like a start. Here’s hoping!

  • Quizplz

    I just saw the new 7 Day, but what about the 7 day for New England?

  • Mr Wet

    When the moon is in the seventh house and Jupiter aligns with Mars than the lousy weather we will be over. Until that happens if you look at Accuweather’s and Weather Channel’s long 10 and 15 forecasts it show a heck of a lot of rainy days to come with no end in sight. Not even the magical four week pattern theory shows any signs of working out during this time.
    Now maybe if the magical weather pattern breaks down and we get more zonal flow (somethiing I was told something by all four TV weather guys was going to happen after this latest Omega Block broke down) then maybe we can have summer. But then again if a solar flare happens and nobody hears it did it really happen? Or maybe if money were to grow on trees maybe we can finally get some nice weather for more than a few hours.
    Folks admit it nobody really knows when the weather is going to get nice-I am sick of all of it. We were told last week to just hold on for a few days and things would get better-well how is that going to work out. A rainy week, with the likely hood that Memorial Day weekend will either be a washout or just one out three ok.
    Until I see a 5, 7, 10, or 15 day forecast with more than one day in a row with only sunshine, than I’ll continue to believe that we will not have a nice summer.
    Then again people be believe in Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, the Loch Nes Monster, and that the world is going to end, so I guess anything is possible.
    We are asked to believe that another Omega Block which is in the process of seting up is going give us nice weather? That the rain will be over NY and the Ohio Valley? Please, it will rain there but it will be raining here too.

  • coach23

    Barry is certainly forecasting warmer temps than others on this station.

  • Matt Souza

    well well people that were being critical to me this morning when i was saying a relativly good week ahead . well mr wet . how about mr summer instead

  • Mr Wet

    Fine by me-when or if it happens.

    Everything I write is written with love for my fellow weather junkie

  • Topkatt88

    Slower transition back to the summery weather May 26-31 is more likely.

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