Up Up & Away! Mild Trend Into Next Week

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

Nothing about this weather pattern can get me down. An early morning chill has given way to a marvelous morning. What a great day to be in Boston and enjoy opening day as the Red Sox take on the Yankees. The weather could not be better…but increasing high clouds with east winds could make it a bit cool at the ball park with temps near 47-50 at game time.

Most of us away from the beaches will climb to 50-55 degrees with sun-filled skies mixing with some increasing high clouds this afternoon. These clouds are along with a shortwave diving south into the mid-atlantic. The rain from the Ohio Valley to PA looks like it is heading right for us this morning…but upper level winds are coming in from the NW with building ridge aloft and  high pressure at the surface. The rain is riding south of us today.

With NW-SE flow continuing aloft…any clouds will be thinning and clearing during the evening hours. Another night of cool lows as temps will drop back to near 32.

High pressure shifts south to start the weekend with temperatures continuing to moderate as winds begin to shift to the SW. Onshore winds will still be found at the coast. Highs will be climbing into the upper 50’s and lwr 60’s.

High pressure will be pulling away with increasing south winds Sunday. Any early sun will be fading to increasing clouds as moisture in the air will increase with an approaching warm front. Mostly dry for much of the day but watch for  a few late day showers or a thunderstorm into Sunday night. Highs will hold steady with more clouds Sunday..but still average above normal in the Upper 50’s and Lwr 60’s inland.

The warm front shifts north through New England Monday. Morning clouds will break to partly sunny skies with breezy warm SW winds. Temps of 16-18 C from 925-850 mb will mix down and allow temps to climb into the 70’s to near 80 inland. South winds will keep it cooler 58-65 at south facing beaches. Eastern MA will likely be in the mid 70’s with the best chance of 80 in western New England Near Springfield or Hartford.

It think the big story this weekend will become severe weather which be breaking out on the plains as a cold front will be sweeping across the nation and clashing with a very warm and humid airmass. The severe weather will come with hail, straightline winds and tornadoes. A severe weather out break will be in place both days across the plains as it eventually shifts to the Ohio Valley by Sunday. This front will move across in a much more weakened state by the time it arrives in the Northeast…but could still kick off a few t’storms with it’s passage. 

Cold front will be on the Move monday Night into Tuesday with a chance of showers or a few thunderstorms. By Tuesday, Upper low is over New York state which crosses right over us…keeping cloudy and unsettled conditions in place.

Temps will be falling behind this cold front into the lwr to mid 60’s with increasing sunshine and building high pressure returning to the Northeast. A mostly flat quiet flow heading into next weekend with another frontal passage during the weekend of April 16th and 17th likely

  • WeatherWixard

    Thanks Joe.
    Finally, opening day at Fenway!
    Good morning.
    Well it’s that time of year again when I look toward the upcoming Hurricane Season.
    So, what about the predictions for this season. Yes I know its only April, but we can get an idea of what to expect this season. Basically, this far out we can get indications if this season will be above normal, normal or below normal as far as number of storms. Now if anyone tells you this early out where the storms are going, well I have some swamp land I can sell you! We will not get a good indication of how the long range pattern is setting up for this upcoming Hurricane season until June.
    During the last few days we received our first preseason forecasts from Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) and from Tropical Storm risk out of Britain. CSU is calling for 16 named storms, 9 Hurricanes, 5 Intense Hurricanes. Tropical Storm Risk is calling for 14 named storms, 7 Hurricanes, 4 Intense Hurricanes. Both of these forecasts are calling for above normal years where 10 named storms, 6 Hurricanes, 2 Intense Hurricanes are normal. It’s interesting to note that CSU is using new statistical models for their forecasts for the first time. We will have to see how this forecast verifies. Both forecasts decreased their numbers slightly from their December forecasts. I believe this is due to the SSTs across the MDR(Main Development Region) being not as warm as they have been in previous years. Of course, as we all know, we can have a very active season like last season and not get any landfalls across the U.S.. It only takes one to make it a season to remember across the U.S.! The biggest forecasting challenge is to predict where these storms will go.

    The analog years to look at this season, which could possibly give us some insight on where these storms will go and how many will form are, 1996, 1999, and 2008. These seasons averaged about 13 Named Storms. As you can see I did not post all of the analog years that CSU did because I believe these are the Top 3 in my opinion with 2008 as my Top analog year to follow.

    I will also be looking at the current ENSO pattern. We are currently in a La Nina that is beginning to weaken slightly. As far as the models go it looks like we will be progressing towards Neutral conditions as we move into the peak of the Hurricane season.
    Most of the models are near Cool Neutral by the peak. We will not be rapidly moving towards El Nino for the winter season. This pattern is favorable for an above normal Hurricane season.

    As of now all the indicators are pointing towards an active season. It will be interesting to see how the Spring Temperatures play out across the Eastern United States. This could go a long way in impact across the Eastern U.S and Gulf Coast. A cooler Spring, which we are experiencing so far, could have a greater impact on landfalls across these areas. This how it went down in 2008.
    The long range forecast for this Spring are calling for cooler then normal temperatures across the Eastern U.S for April and May. Right now my early predictions is between 12-14 storms with a greater impact across the Eastern U.S and Gulf Coast.

  • WeatherWizard

    Sorry about the spelling error-should be WeatherWizard.

  • http://joejoycewbz.wordpress.com joejoycewbz

    Much warmer water in The Gulf of Mexico now compared to last year. This will fuel severe weather out breaks. I think the Gulf will be more of a player this year. I remember Joe Bastardi of accuweather saying last year…that the year after a La Nina the east coast becomes more vulnerable…meaning THIS year. We will see if that holds true. Since nothing hit the US last year… I would be stunned to escape another season without anything. Dr Gray has forecasted an above normal season..I see no reason to question his expertise. He is the man!…A much more active season for landfalling storms is likely…

  • matt

    good afternoon everybody. Enjoy the spring weather . Temps in the 50s and 60s through the week. with sunshine this weekend . showers monday as a cold front keeps temps down we will see areas reach the lower 70s monday.

  • Snow Time

    Although it may be boring it is nice weather.

    • what

      snow time your TIME IS OVER , change your name till next winter–lol

      • Snow Time

        we will see what we will see what

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