Colder Pattern Here to Stay for A While

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV


 It is hard to elaborate much more on what has already been said without stating the obvious which is already known. So I will do what I can here in providing some insight into a developing prolonged cool pattern for the beginning weeks of Spring.

I am not one to complain about the weather. I love it all. Still, like many of you, I am looking forward to some warming temperatures. Unfortunately, I see very little of that in the future, at least through the 10th of April.

Canadian High pressure is providing cool brisk breezy conditions into the Northeast with plenty of sunshine this weekend and an overall fair weather pattern through midweek. Temps will run below normal for the next week. the Climate Prediction Center has the northeast running well below normal for the next 6-10 days.

610temp new small Colder Pattern Here to Stay for A While

Though High pressure is providing the sunshine…Upper level winds are steering in the cold…which is especially cold aloft with temps at 850 mb running -12 to -14 C. With the heating of the day, this steep lapse rate along    vortmax moving through, and midlevel moisture at 800 mb….I would expect some diurnal cumulus to start to pop around midday into the afternoon. Still plenty of sunshine.  Highs are stuck in the 30’s today with Lwr 40’s tomorrow with brisk NW winds.

500vty f018 bg us1 Colder Pattern Here to Stay for A While

An upper low will sit over Newfoundland through Tuesday before finally lifting out. This in combination with the High over the Canadian Plains will guarantee the persistent cool NW flow with periodic pieces of energy wrapping around the low which will help to give some cloudiness across the North Monday…as well as the chance for upsloping snow showers for North facing slopes in Northern New England.

After Wednesday, the pattern becomes more interesting with still plenty to watch once the upper low finally pulls out of the picture. Will we be tracking energy slamming into the NW US which will then move into the Great Plains. This will likely be the cause of more thunderstorms or even tornadoes through the midwest. Just enough ridging will be in place to likely keep Wednesday mostly dry….but the exact timing of this disturbance is still in question this far out.

ecmwf apcp f138 us Colder Pattern Here to Stay for A While

If you go on the European model above, it shows low tracking just south of New England bringing with it a wet mix of snow and rain…mainly for Thursday. As the low pulls away…any rain may briefly mix over to snow by Thursday night…before ending. Again, the timing, placement, ptype is all speculation right now…so we will just have to watch that…but I would not be surprised to see the Berks to the Worcester Hills get a few inches of snow from that.

As we know, we have moved back into this blocking pattern with building high pressure over Greenland. So far this is helping to take the main storm track south of New England and keep it cold. That will remain the trend for now as the North Atlantic Oscillation has gone into negative territory. When negative, blocking highs over Greenland and cold weather with a trough in the Northeast is very typical. But looking at the chart which is kind of hard to see…(my apologies) The NAO starts to work back towards the neutral or positive phase further into April which could mean a gradual easement of the cold pattern

nao sprd22 Colder Pattern Here to Stay for A While

That may be…but our long range ensembles are still showing a trough in place across the northeast right thought the 7th…which will likely still be having some sort of impact on our weather through the 12th of April

mslp f288 ussm Colder Pattern Here to Stay for A While

Timing the shortwaves of energy which will come over the western ridge and into the base of the trough in the east will create some nashing of the teeth for forecasters as there is still the potential for a more sizable storm to form and come up the coast before we finally break out of this. Our models are everywhere looking further down the road. Sometimes there is a storm, sometimes there is not…but there certainly is potential through this time period. This is the time of year where surprise heavy snows can come out of nowhere. So for now…let’s enjoy the quiet weather as chilly as it may be. 

The Climate Prediction Center has fine tuned their April Outlook with Northern New England above normal. Hmm. Once this troughy pattern finally lifts out…could we be in for a marvelously mild second half of spring to make up for the early chill? Could be!

off temp small Colder Pattern Here to Stay for A While

  • JimmyJames

    Great blog Joe. As I always say the weather tries to balance itself out so why it is on the chilly side for now I believe the weather will warm up during the month of April. I don’t think will be having any 90 degree reading in early April like we did last year.

  • leo

    I really hope so Joe! Thanks

  • tuna

    thanks joe i’m hopeing for one more big snow then nice temps and little wind

  • leo

    Jimmy James, I know you have an interest in thunderstorms and was wondering if you have ever chased thunderstorms around our area? I have a few times in my day but nothing to serious only if I heard a severe t-storm warning issued north or south of my area I would drive to that location where the storm was heading. Was also wondering what your most exciting thunderstorm was that youve experienced? I lived in Whitman in 1996 when an incredible microburst moved through my area with estimated winds just over a 100 mph.At the time I was in my parents backyard and just finished mowing their lawn when I saw some incredibly ominous clouds approaching and went to the weather channel and could hear the loud beeping sound and severe t storm warning scrolled across the bottom of the screen for our area. Then I ran outside and could actually hear trees on the other side of my neighborhood snapping like twigs as we didnt have any wind yet at my house. About ten seconds later all hell broke loose and there was a roar like I never heard before with hurricane force winds and a drenching zero visibility rain. It lasted only about 3 or 4 minutes but was an incredible experience. At the time I thought we were getiing a tornado but was later proven to be straight line winds. When I went out after the storm it was obviously straight line winds but still incredible damage in my local area probably equivalent to an f-1 tornado. What was your most exciting storm?

    • JimmyJames

      Hey Leo… Well with this chilly weather pattern we don’t have to worry about thunderstorms for a while. I have never chased thunderstorms but I have gone out driving around after a severe thunderstorm has ended to see if any damage happened. There are so many ingredients that have to come together to get big storms to form. I am always on the look out when a cold front is approaching and we have a lot of sunshine out ahead of ther because that destablizes the atmosphere and makes it volitle for big thunderstorm potential. The most exciting thunderstorm I ever exprienced was when I was in Florida and I was at a water park and I saw a big lightning bolt come down to where the wave pool is.

      • Scott

        have you contacted coastal yet?

  • WeatherWizard

    Thanks Joe.
    6 days until opening day.

  • Timmy

    Right now I’ve been saying we’ve sprung the clocks forward an hour, put flipped the calendar two months back to January…

  • JimmyJames

    Hey Scott…. I contacted Coastal Thursday night and he returned my email.

    • philip

      Jimmy…Excellent! We hope to see you “on board” soon. :-)

      • matt

        Sounds like the “secret weather geek club” is soon to start!!!!

  • Scott

    Thanks Joe

    The EURO long range weekly forecast output shows this cooler pattern lasting till the end of April. I’m not sure how accurate those are though.
    At least we got that strong sun out there to help us out.

    • philip

      Scott…I really doubt that the cold pattern will last quite that long.

      • Chris McD

        It will last another week at the most. JJ’s prediction of cooler temps lasting through the 10th of April is a bit too far out. Expect temps to moderate spring like before then around the 4th and beyond. Next week will feel better than it has been these last few days. Upper 40 degree days is not so bad!

      • Topkatt88

        The cold pattern was slow in arriving vs. model predictions, and will also be slow in leaving. Mid April is reasonable IMO. Late April – not as likely. I do not think it will last only one more week. There should be a legit chilly shot of air behind 2 or 3 systems in the early days of April.

  • Jim Haines

    Great blog Joe, BTW your 7 day outlook graphic is a day behind. Today is the 26th and Friday is April 1st.

  • jimmy

    and it says MIX for Thursday but not what the written forecast says

    • Topkatt88

      The dates change automatically I believe.

      The written forecast is from the NWS, not WBZ, even though it says that on the header.

  • Topkatt88

    As others have stated, great job on this blog update Mr. Joyce!

    As the return to negative NAO lagged the model forecasts, I suspect the same may be true about return to neutral/positive NAO. But an emerging split flow regime may also throw some chaos into the overall pattern. We did have some split flow during the 6-week barrage earlier in the winter, but this one may become a little more pronounced, so we’ll see how it all works out. I have a strong leaning toward a cooler than normal regime maintaing itself until just about mid April, then letting go.

  • Willy13

    A split flow and neg nao is I believe what we had last year when the flooding rains were occurring…southern branch storms getting blocked upon reaching New England……..

    • Topkatt88

      It was a similar pattern, but at least for the time-being, it doesn’t look like we start blocking the systems up too much.

  • smitty

    as perusual. none of the so called idiots like markrex,brianhacket,itoldyouso, etc,etc,etc,etc, have any idea what is goin on!!! they are always clueless about the bloggers here but try to sound like they know what they are sayin. all this trashing nonsense is just that garbage!!! and not one ofyou is any good since you are all the same person and always a moron too! so give it up!!!!!
    And I never NEVER! want to hear what mr troll has to say again!!! he is the worst of the worst and should be fired for being such an idiot and so lame!! give it up !!

    • John

      or you could just ignore them like an adult and not stoop to their level.

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