Cooler Pattern to Provide Chances of Snow

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

High pressure building into New England will allow for abundant sunshine with light winds and temps in the lwr to mid 40’s. Light nE winds will keep it a bit cooler right at the coast. Vernal Equinox is 7:21 where the sun shines directly over the equator giving us equal length of day and night.

page Cooler Pattern to Provide Chances of Snow

Clear skies tonight will give you another chance to view the amazing Super Moon, before clouds to increase overnight.

super moon Cooler Pattern to Provide Chances of Snow

Thanks Michael O'Neill!

A weak area of low pressure will be tracking through Northern New England tomorrow. Precipitation will push into western new England by mid morning and spread to the coast by 11 AM to Noon.  With cold air in place to start, any precip is likely going to start as snow before changing to rain in the afternoon as the boundary layer warms with southerly winds.  It is very difficult for snow to accumulate much this time of year. It has to come down heavy to add up. So I am not expecting much more than a coating to and inch for most locations before the change over….very little if any accumulation at the coast.  Higher elevations..just like in early winter will have the best chance of accumulating 1-3″ of snow in places like the Berkshires, Worcester Hills, S. VT and the Monadnock Region.

sfc pcp f036 bg ne Cooler Pattern to Provide Chances of Snow

The low will deepen as it pulls off the coast. This with building high pressure from Canada will create gusty Northerly winds for Tuesday with dry and seasonal air in the 40’s. The low we will have to watch is currently bring flooding rains to California. This will come over the Rockies and again track towards the Great Lakes., Unlike it’s Monday predecessor, upper level winds will help to push this low south and will eventually track south of New England.

500vty f096 bg us Cooler Pattern to Provide Chances of Snow

As was mentioned yesterday, I had a dry forecast for the midweek, but there were developing concerns for this disturbance to track a bit farther north and it has. Low pressure will move through the mid-Atlantic states and strengthen once off the coast. The northern fringe of this low will provide the chance of accumulating snow across the region in the late Wednesday-Thursday time frame. Temps should be cold enough to keep mostly snow for most, except along the immediate coast where there will be some boundary layer mixing issues with rain.

gfs op apcp f90 us Cooler Pattern to Provide Chances of Snow

There are plenty of things to keep an eye on here…track, lift, amount of moisture and thermal profile…Right now I would say there is the potential for a general 2-4″ of snow…with locally higher amounts in the NW hills and lighter amounts at the coast…but this can all change. An inverted trough will likely hang back as the low departs and be a trigger to keep periodic snow showers going into the afternoon.

Canadian high pressure will follow in behind this departing snow and guarantee below normal temps in the 30’s to continue through the weekend of the 26-27 with fair weather and diminishing winds.

mslp f144 ussm Cooler Pattern to Provide Chances of Snow

The pattern of lows tracking south of New England will continue to end out the month of march…with temps still running a tad cool to near normal. Lows will mostly  be tracking south, but another chance of light snow is in play for Sunday, March 27th, with another more potent low coming out of the Gulf on the 28th…likely to remain south. Plenty of weather to watch. Though Spring has sprung, we are definitely turning more wintry to end out the Month.

Comments

One Comment

  1. itoldyouso says:

    there you go snow freeks , a 2-4 maybe a little more , there you go , hope you love it , i think it will suck but thats me ! like i said i’m moving to southern cali anyway so like i care! and to the comment earlier about being near my new pool in dec , no mudslides for my area , so you keep watching the news and tell me when it happens again , not till next winter even if it happens , but one thing i do know , while your freezing and up tp ypur eyes in lousy weather , ill be laughing at you 3000 mile away! and one more thing as far as THE BIG ONE my wife is from there and she tells me that they have been talking about that since she has been in grade school , lets see 30 yrs ago , so i say WHATEVER

    1. Kent says:

      Feel bad for your wife that she puts up with you. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.

    2. ron says:

      Learn how to spell I’ll.

  2. WeatherWizard says:

    Thanks Joe.

  3. Joshua says:

    Several weeks ago I was never sold on this being a “warm March” or that we were closing in on mild, spring-like weather. It didn’t feel that way then, and looking at weather maps (from my amateur perspective) I didn’t see evidence of 50s and 60s and lots of sun the last week of March. Remember, that was the long-range forecast as recently as 5 days ago on accuweather and weather.com, even NWS went along with it.

    I thought we’d close out the month with some snow, not a lot, but certainly a few inches, and I have a gut feeling that we’ll have an April snowstorm this year. We’re overdue for one. I’m not clamoring for snow or cold, but all along the reality this month has been that the cold was never far away. It was sitting there a few hundred miles north, ready to plunge south with a dip in the jetstream. Zonal flows never last a very long time, and dips are particularly prevalent in the spring, almost inevitable here in New England.

    1. philip says:

      Joshua, thanks for your thoughts regarding April snow. My personal rule is that if we don’t get snow by April 10th, then none will fall again until next winter. There are a couple of exceptions of course that come to mind…May 1977 and late April 1987 with maybe others?

      1. haha says:

        HAHA. You are all tools.

  4. southshoretom says:

    Had a chance to drive by the ocean…….an impressive high astronomical tide is taking place. Most of the salt marshes are lakes, and the high tide mark is leaving very little beach at the moment. The ocean is fairly calm though and thus there is very little splashover at the seawall.

  5. philip says:

    I earlier predicted that there would be either two “moderate” snow events or one final BIGGIE to end the snow season. At the moment my feeling is the Wednesday-Thursday storm and Joe’s on the 28th will both be moderate events.

    My bet is the 28th system will come further north with time. Those Gulf of Mexico storms usually end up coming north to some extent and rarely remain totally south. We will see what happens.

    1. southshoretom says:

      Hi Philip.

      I agree with you. The 12z GFS is out and the 28th event, IF it happened as projected, would be a significant precip maker.

    2. ben says:

      sure you say that now.

  6. JimmyJames says:

    Thanks Joe and great blog as always. There will be plenty to keep an eye on.

  7. John says:

    Hi Guys- just checking in, been away. That was a nice moon last night, it was so bright. Well I guess we will be breaking the pattern with a snowless March.Sounds like tommorow is not a big deal, but from what I am reading I guess Wednesday is the one to watch. Oh well. I was wishing it was done as I am ready for warm weather. Hello to SST,TK, HADI and Coastal and all other regular bloggers. Enjoy this nice Sunday.

    1. JimmyJames says:

      Hey John… The warm weather will be back but it won’t be this week as is always the case here in New England when transitioning from winter to spring its a few steps forward and a few steps back.

      1. John says:

        Hi JimmyJames- Yea I know. I was draining the water off my pool cover not that long ago, and just was getting excited about the day when we can swim again.What are you guys thinking for snow amounts for the SouthShore on this Wednesday storm.

  8. John says:

    TK- What is going on with the bruins. I hope they break out of this slump for the playoffs.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Maybe they’re just getting it out of the way before the playoffs… I’m going to the game Thursday so they better snap out of it sooner rather than later!

      1. thetruth says:

        Stick to the weather TK. No one cares – or even watches – the Bruins.

  9. JimmyJames says:

    John using the Snow Index early call for your area would be a MINOR event meaning 4 inches or less and I am thinking closer to a coating or an inch.

  10. southshoretom says:

    test post

    1. southshoretom says:

      John……4-6 inches Wed night-Thursday. I’d explain, but long posts arent taking.

      1. southshoretom says:

        each 12hr cycle looks more impressive…and I’m thinking that this trend continues.

      2. southshoretom says:

        If that trend doesnt, then this will be very wrong and look silly, but I’m going with it…..I dont recall many forecasts a few days back calling for such a current vigorous west coast storm, so, I think the models are still adjusting to this feature.

  11. JimmyJames says:

    I am just not sold yet on anything but a MINOR snow event for the southshore area Wednesday night Thursday but will keep an eye on the models and future forecasts.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      JJ you may have to issue a ‘MINOR’ for tomorrow the way things are looking. :-)

      1. JimmyJames says:

        Hey Topkatt tomorrow is looking like a good possiblity for a MINOR snow event at least for the interior areas of SNE.

  12. philip says:

    We should also keep in mind that storms this time of the year can easily manufacture their own cold air, so things don’t have to be quite as “picture pefect” to get snow as back in early winter.

    1. JMA says:

      Phillip, help me out. Are you saying it is easier to get snowstorms in SNE during late March than in December and January? If so, please explain. I would be interested in your thinking.

  13. landscaper/ snowmover says:

    itoldyaso for someone who is so bothered by this blog you seem to spend all day on it. I find your posts comical,but really you need something else to do…

  14. JMA says:

    Tomorrow, does not impress me too much outside of elevated areas. Daytime snowfall will have to come early with the rapid WAA. There will be BL issues, rapid warming above the surface and daytime highs in the 30’s and 40’s with March sun angle.

  15. JMA says:

    Now Wednesday night/Thursday Morning. Perfect scenario for spring snow in SNE. Low to the south, pulling down cold air from the northwest, daytime highs not too warm previous to precip onset, most of the precip falling during the nighttime hours.

  16. JMA says:

    GFS most robust around .6 PF. ECWMF only produces about .2-.25 of QPF during Wednesday night. GFS ENS in the middle. GGEM further south than the OP GFS, and thus less QPF as well.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      How do you feel about a possible Norlun trough setup for the midweek. Seems most pronounced on GFS runs.

      Also, I agree with your points about tomorrow’s event.

      1. JMA says:

        Wrote you a nice response. It got blown away…Short Answer. Agree with GFS on possible Norlun, however the GFS is overstating the effect of the enhancement Norlun would bring, because of its typical blindness to climatologically limiting factors this time of year, especially daytime Thursday.

      2. Topkatt88 says:

        The blog’s been touchy today.
        I wouldn’t complain for lower impact on roadways Thursday since I’ll be traveling into Boston to a B’s game, and I’m sure many people wouldn’t mind wet roads vs. snow or slush covered ones. The majority of the PM commute is now in daylight so that should help.

      3. JMA says:

        B’s have a problem: For the last 4 games he has played, Thomas seems more like the Thomas of last year than the one we had seen all this year. Other problem is obvious. Special Teams are not good and you cannot win in today’s NHL, with poor special teams

  17. John says:

    Just got back home frome a school science fair thank’s for the info. I need to go cook a roastbeef on my grill, be back on tonight. Tk I hope they play good for the game you go to. Talk with you guys later.

  18. southshoretom says:

    the coverage of winter wx advisories grows in the western and central parts of New England……….

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      NWS zone fcst is going with up to an inch right down to about Boston. Like JMA said, it will have to happen quickly on the front end before the boundary layer warms.

  19. Charlie says:

    I don’t think this wintry week ahead will be more than a nuisance esp for Boston to Providence,

    1. Charlie says:

      Like they always say, it’s not a snowstorm unless it snows in Boston :)

      1. DS says:

        But mark your words, “no more snow,” right??

        ;-)

  20. leo says:

    Wednesday night not very impressive to me. Under an inch along the coast and only a few inches inland,nbd!

  21. leo says:

    I’m usually wrong though!

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Inverted trough is the main threat for midweek, not so much a low pressure center.

  22. springhassprung says:

    if joe joyce says it will happen you can almost bet it won’t.

  23. Scott says:

    hey everyone, couldn’t post as much since i been skiing this past weekend (conditions weren’t the best)
    anyway, wide spread 1-3″, most of it will be gone by the afternoon.
    hard to say about Wednesday-Thursday, models are all over the place and i haven’t had the time to look closely at all of them.
    i did notice the increase in trolls over the past few days, really makes this blog unattractive to read and comment on…

  24. WEATHER MANIAC says:

    THE UPPER LAYER CONVECTION LEAVES THE MOTRTALS IN ITS WAKE. NATURES FROZEN GLOBULES OF DESTRUCTION SXHALL REIGN FROM THE HEAVENS. DO NOT FEAR SNOW FOR I SHALL IRRADIATE IT WITH THE NEON RADIATION THAT I CAN EXHUME FROM THE EYEBALLS AND WEILL SEE WEATHER STRIKE FORTH INTO THE MIO 40’S BY EARLY AFTERNOONOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOON ARGHHHHHH AAAAAAAAAHHHH GRUNT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  25. philip says:

    testing post…more of the same.

  26. southshoretom says:

    I notice there are thunderstorms developing in the Great Lakes area with the system affecting New England tomorrow. Must be some decent dynamics with this system.

  27. Hadi says:

    Scott I made a pledge to myself not to respond anymore to the trouble makers, they will just disappear in time.

    1. Scott says:

      yeah i try to ignore them too, but this is getting way out of control.

  28. bob says:

    Scott,Matt,Hadi and others, you keep complaining about these trolls but you guys are the ones who keep responding to them and are giving them their thrills of annoying you. Its your fault too

    1. Scott says:

      if it was one or 2 trolls per say 15-30 posts, i wouldn’t mind too much. but it’s like everyone 2-3 posts at the moment, and it’s been consistent lately.

  29. JimmyJames says:

    Tomorrow is a 1 on the Snow Index meaning MINOR snowfall before the change to rain. As for the second storm system early call is for a MINOR snowfall but that could change as we get closer to that event. One thing is for sure no warm weather this week!

    1. philip says:

      Jimmy, just looking at Barry’s updated 7-day and I suspect that things could change significantly with the second storm. There is also the Gulf of Mexico storm for after next weekend…alot to follow to say the least.

      In other words, your index could get one or more final workouts. We will see.

  30. JimmyJames says:

    Hey Phillip…. It looks like at least for the start of spring the snow index will up and running. I am thinking 1 for tomorrow and 1 for the next storm system but that could change and the Gulf of Mexico storm way to early to give an impact on that one.
    Your pick for Florida making the Final Four looks good with Pittsburgh losing in a crazy ending yesterday.

  31. Hadi says:

    Bob these people attack in a nasty manner!! I really try not to engage, but sometimes it gets really frustrating.

  32. philip says:

    Based on the latest 6-10 & 8-14 day CPC cold air is not going to be an issue…there will be plenty for all of SNE. P-type should be mainly snow especially for nighttime hours. From what I can tell the only issue is if precip makes it far enough north. There are also hints of normal to below normal precip at times for the two week period. Let’s see what happens through early April.

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