Brief Cool Down Before Milder Times

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

A weak low crossed the region overnight with light showers or sprinkles.  Now we have a shortwave which is moving through. It  is a cool pool of air aloft which will create instability by allowing the warmer air from the surface to rise into the cool and form considerable cloudiness.

wrf 500 avort 12 Brief Cool Down Before Milder Times

Behind the departing low, some early sunshine this morning, but as the ground warms clouds and the wave passes through expect more clouds to rotate through, as well as the slight risk for a few passing light showers or sprinkles. Behind the short wave, skies should be breaking this afternoon for some increasing sunshine with a breezy west wind. Highs will be in the 40’s in the clouds, Lwr 50’s in the sunshine towards the coastal plain. Most of the sun today will be found in the south…yet most should be clearing as we head towards evening.

A cold front is in place across the Canadian Border. This front will push off the tonight. Winds will shift back to the NNE by Monday.  Any early morning sun will fade behind increasing midday clouds which will stick around for the rest of the day as another shortwave moves through southern New England. 

wrf 500 avort 42 Brief Cool Down Before Milder Times

 Onshore winds with clouds will make it feel quite raw at the coast with temps steady in the mid-upper 30’s, with slightly warmer temps inland away from the chilly NE wind.  High pressure will be building in Monday night with the high cresting over us Tuesday morning. The high will begin pulling away Tuesday and start to wrap in a moderating S wind which will bring temps back into the 40’s.

Our next rain maker will come from the midwest. It will have a bit of Gulf moisture to work with. It will take and inside track up the Hudson Valley and deepen over Northern New England before it quickly pulls away. It will be a progressive rain which will only produce only about a quarter to 3/4″ of rain. Just enough to keep the rivers running high but prevent any bigger flooding issues. The rain should quickly be pushing in Wednesday morning and continue through the afternoon.

wrf 0 prec 84 Brief Cool Down Before Milder Times

Warming high pressure from the South will wrap in warmer air from the SW behind this departing low making for a nice spring warm up to end the week as temps will close in on 60 by Thursday & Friday.  The timing of a front on Friday is still in question…but once that moves through, Canadian High high pressure follows in for next weekend which will bring us back into the seasonal 40’s with increasing sunshine and gusty NW winds.

  • southshoretom

    nice spring weather Thursday and Friday…..and then what ? CPC NAO Outlook shows NAO going negative and GFS long range outlook similarly shows a couple of colder looking storms after the vernal equinox.

    • Chris McD

      The cold weather by the end of the month doesn’t look that cold. The temps day by day will be like tomorrow’s temperatures for highs. There will be rain events too to accompany the cold. As for snow? Ehh..not much.

  • Joey Buttafooco

    Loving Thursday and Friday! Wouldn’t be surprised if temps made it well into the 60s. Usually springtime temps are way underforecasted Five days in advance. Wouldn’t totally rule out 70

    • Topkatt88

      Thursday is looking very mild and probably without any ocean cooling issues (except where the gradient wind would be off the water – Cape, South Coast, Islands). And the temps certainly are often underforecast that far out in this setup. Not sure if it stays that warm thru Friday – too many differences in timing between the GFS (which I do not like today) and the Euro (which I do).

    • Scott

      Watch Worcester be like 68 while Boston is in the low 40’s, that sea breeze this time of year is a big factor for coastal areas.

  • Spaniel

    NEG NAO and NEG AO in day 10-15 = I hope u did not put the shovel away.

    • JimmyJames

      Spaniel I did not put away my shovel or boots just yet. I wait till were a week in April before I put them away.

    • Scott

      just have to see if a ridge builds in the west, if thats the case, and if the NAO goes negative, a late season winter storm may be in the cards. too early to tell though if all will pan out.

  • Joshua

    We’ll see about the warm-up later this week. There have been too many forecasted warm-ups this winter (since about late January, I’ve heard more botched forecasts predicting warm-ups than I can remember in previous years) that have just not occurred. Last weekend, the mets at WBZ were right (and I was totally wrong). But, I’m puzzled by continued pronouncements by many mets of this being a warm March. It’s not, it’s about average. Today’s high (45) is just about average, tomorrow’s will be below, as will Tuesday’s, then we will probably experience some above average days, followed by some below average days. I did the calculations last night using our highs and lows each day this month and came almost precisely to the long-term average (just very, very slightly above average). And, I really don’t expect much of a departure from average the rest of this month. Conforming to the usual in March, the weather has been dismal half the time (like today and most of last week), with more clouds than sun, and a lot of unproductive, damp, cool temperatures, interspersed with an occasion nice day, either on the cold or warm side.

  • philip

    Thanks to DST we had a sunrise this morning at 7:00 am…the same as JANUARY 30th. Now we have to start all over again to get some decent morning light. So much for “spring” I guess. >:-(

    • philip

      Also, not to mention that thte models will be coming out 1 hour late potentially messing up mets forecasts. Fortunately there are no complex winter storms in the immediate future.

      • Topkatt88

        Sux a bit to have the stuff later relative to local time but I get used to it. :-) You learn to do more with less if you wanna forecast earlier, or at the same time. Sometimes it works out just fine… :-)

    • Topkatt88

      At the rate we gain minutes of daylight per day this time of year, the temporary setback won’t be much of anything in a matter of days.

      • philip

        It is going to be around mid-April before we get back to 6:00 am sunrises according to my almanac. :-(

  • manowx

    I see no major snowfalls here on out.

    • JOHN

      Hi Manowx- I am on the fence. I for one would welcome no more snow. I would say that if it does not snow in the next 2weeks winter is over. I do not think we get April snow this year. But we just wait to see how it plays out. I am so looking forward to summer.

    • Charlie

      I think we could have said this 5 weeks ago :)

      • JOHN

        You called it- you might end up being right.

      • Topkatt88

        So we are verifying medium to long range forecasts that extend out another 18 days, based on runs of the GFS model? Just trying to clarify.

      • DS

        Charlie uses the :) model.

  • philip

    The frustrating issue I have with dark mornings is that it happens twice a year as opposed to dark evenings just once. Yes I know that life is not always fair…but still. I am more of a “morning” person.

  • JOHN

    HeyTK- What does the model show

    • Topkatt88

      The GFS is maintaining a generally warm mode thru the outlook period.

      I am not saying that Charlie’s prediction has no chance of coming true. As we saw last year, and 2 years before that, it can shut down early and stay that way.

      That said, I don’t think the GFS has a handle on the pattern right now. If I see consistent Euro runs supporting the GFS ideas over the next several days, then I’ll nudge in that direction. But I never call it done before late April.

      Note: It’s not a “wish for snow”. I honestly don’t care if it snows again or not, as much as I like it. I’m just saying, like I did last year, that we’re not finished. Now, I did say that last year, and it turned out, I was way off. It didn’t snow again. 2 years in a row? Maybe. But doubt it. I’m sure if I’m wrong again then pinnacle06 will remind me many times of it. :-) I’m sure you’re out there reading. So yeah, I’m making the call. Maybe it’ll verify. Maybe it won’t. Time will tell.

      Have a great evening and a safe week ahead everyone. :-)

      • Topkatt88

        Well of course as you go from late March to early April, climatologically it’s less likely to snow. However, when you look back in history and see warm spells in late March, and a couple snowstorms and even a blizzard in early April, it’s clear the climatology doesn’t tell all. It’s all about the pattern and the quirks in it.

        I remember back in the mid 1970s during the late Spring we had a mild day in the 50s, a storm tracked by just south of us that night and the next morning producing several inches of snow, only to see the temp bounce into the 60s the same afternoon after the sky cleared. You might want snow. You might not. Doesn’t matter. The atmosphere will do what it wants.

      • JOHN

        Hey TK- is it harder for snow to form say first week of April as to the last couple weeks in March. And I know we can get snow in April but is that real rare to get April snow.

  • The Graupler

    I LOVE dark mornings. I get up and headto work at 5:30 anyway, and when it’s dark it gives a feeling of getting a head start on the day ahead of everybody else. And when the sun sets after 7 PM I couldnt be happier. Sign of Spring. I saw some wild onion blooming in my mulchbed,

    • JOHN

      Yes I love when we spring ahead, and hate when we fall back. I have been doing a ton of yardwork this week and have noticed all the trees have buds and some spring bulbs are starting to pop. By this time next week with the forcasted
      60s by the Thursday and Friday we should see more things coming into bloom. It’s nice to see after a long winter.

  • matt

    does anyone on here knows if the japan quake led to the volcano erruption that occured today in japan.

    • JOHN

      Not sure Matt- I feel bad for the people of Japan. They just can’t seem to catch a break.

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