A February Thaw

A strong La Nina in tandem with a negative NAO were two of the main players that created our harsh wintery weather over the past 6 weeks. Since the NAO has turned more positive and La Nina has peaked but is still strong, we're in the midst of a lengthy weather break which will terminate about a week from today. For added interesting information on the seasonal forecast, check out the latest Climate Prediction Center Forecast. Similar but not all duplicate global factors were in place during the record-breaking snowfall season of 1995-1996 when Boston received 107.6 inches! So far this season, the city has gathered 71.2″. In 1996, the February snowfall was 15.5″(3.8″ above average), the March snowfall was 16.8″(8.9″ above average) and the April snowfall was  7.3″(a whopping 6.4″ above average). From this data, can we conclude that Boston's snowfall will reach or exceed 100″ this season? The answer is not necessarily. Further comparison into the 1996 season reveals that the 9 days near the end of February were much warmer than the average with high temperatures in the middle 40s to upper 50s! Compare that to the timing of this February's warm spell. It is happening about a week earlier. In 1996, the warm spell was followed by a snowy period during the first week of March then alternating mild and cool periods topped off by a snowy first week of April. We actually had a brief January thaw this year with 56 degrees on New Year's Day and 51 degrees on the 2nd but since then, the cold has been persistent. However, IMO, I foresee a more typical pattern yielding gyrating cycles of warm and cold weather ahead similar to the pattern of 1996. Additionally, there are signs that high latitude North Atlantic and Greenland blocking will reload resulting in a negative NAO leading to the premise that a stormy regime will return next week and last into March. Winter is definitely not over yet despite the warmth that will visit us this week.  

There is essentially no change in this week's forecast from what I delivered to you yesterday. There are no storms on the weather menu all this week but next week the menu will likely be much different. As a clipper churns down the St. Lawrence Valley tomorrow, we'll be located in the warm sector so expect temperatures forging into the 40s. There could be some limited sunshine penetrating through lots of clouds as the southwesterly wind is busy. As cold front number 1 crosses the area in the early to mid-afternoon, there could be a few scattered brief rain showers. With the passage of cold front number 2 during the evening, scattered snow showers will occur and the temperatures will take the plunge to the lower 20s by dawn on Tuesday. That will be the atypical day of the week with bright sunshine and highs failing to reach 30 degrees with a gusty cold northwesterly wind to 35 mph. As a strong ridge of high pressure crests over the area Tuesday night, the wind will diminish and radiational cooling will create tumbling temperatures to the upper single numbers to lower teens. That ridge will shift south of the area early Wednesday and the resultant clockwise airflow will escort the mild weather right back into the Northeast with afternoon highs back in the lower 40s. A further rise flirting with 50 degrees is an easy target on Thursday with middle 50s probable on Friday. Both of those days will feature considerable cloudiness and limited sunshine. There is a very slight risk that a weak backdoor cold front could keep it much cooler near the coast on those days. Meantime, the next strengthening storm will pass across southern Canada late in the week and once it arrives in eastern Quebec, the cold air will quickly collapse southeastward into the Northeast early next weekend. Presently, it appears that seasonable not frigid weather will return at that time.

Melissa Mack returns with her latest AccuWeather Forecast early in the morning and Todd Gutner follows later in the afternoon and evening.

Make it a great week and HAPPY VALENTINE'S DAY!