Talk about a Super Sunday! So nice outside. In fact this is the warmest we have been since January 2nd when we reached 51 degrees. Nice to finally thaw a bit. Highs today will climb to 40 to 46 degrees in the sunshine and diminishing wind behind our departing low whose low pressure has dropped down to 981 mb over Nova Scotia. This low made for very strong winds during the overnight over the Cape and Islands with gusts over 50 mph. The winds are calming down…however conditions will still be breezy at times. Plenty of melting today…a good time to chip off a bit more ice around the house as many surfaces will soften in the afternoon sun. What a day to be skiing too! Sugarloaf to Sugarbush picking up to 8-12″ of new snow in the past 24 hours.

Now, onto our next weather makers. As previously mentioned, this week will be a wintry week ahead. Colder air will be pressing back into the US, plus there are two different storm systems to track. It is easy to write both of these off as non events and be on your merry way, but I am still cautious that this pattern could ramp up and we could see surprise snowfalls which exceed our expectations.

Let’s begin with the first…due to arrive late Monday night and Tuesday morning. We are tracking two waves of low pressure. From the National Weather Service Taunton:


The Canadian is pretty aggressive in the phasing and has a potent storm coming out of the Gulf and deepening south of Nantucket. The Euro has a similar look with a merging and deepening low off the Mid-Atlantic coast, but is a tad more to the south with it’s track, with slightly less precip and the low getting stronger a bit farther east off the coast. Still a solid swipe of snowfall here Tuesday morning. the GFS tries to keep the streams separate, but even that is starting to merge as well. So moral of the story here is that Tuesday morning is likely going to come with a thump of snow which may come as a surprise quick heavy snowfall.  A heavier hit would mean 3-6+” of snow amounts…a lighter more disorganized less phased quick moving snow fall would mean 1-3″ before pulling away Tuesday midday-afternoon. I think the Canadian & Euro are handling this best. I also do not see much mixing with rain except maybe the Cape and the Islands and Plymouth county.

Cold arctic air pushes in for Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of the next storm. Some  have written this storm for Thursday off as well…with good reason.  Most models this morning have this tracking far enough from New England to have this storm missing us. That is certainly possible…but it is also just as easy for this storm to start trending westward in the next few model runs…so this bares watching. More information is needed before any real call can be made. The Canadian and GFS take this south and out to sea, While the Euro and the JMA have a track close enough to graze southern new England with snow. The JMA has the most precipitation and has track closest to New England. Definitely worth a look and something to consider.

The answer is in how well the models are handling the blocking over Greenland and eastern Canada…which I think is not very well at this point. The shortwaves we will have to watch for Thursday’s storm is still up in Alaska and the North Pole…so there is still plenty of time and real estate to play with before anything is nailed down here.  The Euro is so close that any further adjustment west will mean a hit for SNE which the JMA is showing. In fact, the JMA has both storms hitting pretty good with moderate snow falls. So there is still some gas left in the tak…the question is how much? I wish I had more definite answers.

On the bright side of things….the trough swings through next weekend for one final blast of cold air. Then finally…a flat zonal flow develops in the jetstream which will lock the cold into Canada and flood the nation with mild Pacific air! A February thaw. The weather for Valentine’s day and beyond looks more temperate and less extreme. It is about time. A much needed breather from mother nature after delivering numerous punches to the gut.

Comments (114)
  1. WeatherWizard says:

    Thanks Joe!

    1. Austin says:

      Joe, Kerry made your nachos for the game. Fabulous.

      Her Husband,


  2. Mazza says:

    Joe do you think that the GFS will trend westward with the second storm too?

  3. joejoycewbz says:

    Yes, I do think that there will be a trend westward after this dramatic shift to the south. I can not say if this will hit or be a miss…but I do think there will be an adjustment to the west..once the GFS model gets a better handle on the enrgy diving in..which I think it may be out to lunch on right now.

    1. joe says:

      You can’t say if this will hit or be a miss? Isn’t that your job to forecast the weather?

  4. JimmyJames says:

    I am still thinking a MINOR event for Tuesday on The Snow Index. This could change to a MODERATE event but it is highly unlikely to me at this point we a MAJOR Snow event
    As for Thursday its a watching game at this point.

  5. retrac says:

    Hi gang,

    lifted my self imposed gag order about 40 minutes early-got some reading to do and wanted to chime in….

    Tuesday-To Joe’s point….Canadian has been pretty impressive for several runs now. I’ve been watching it more than the GFS and NAM for Tuesday because they’ve been too flaky (good pun right!) If the Canadian is right, decent thump for interior and less toward the coast. B.L. temps are going to start to have an affect now with brighter sky to TK’s point. I think we’re in for a good few inches on average.

    Thursday-Ridge in West isn’t in the right spot. NW flow here too strong. Looks like a big ULL in Canada providing strong NW flow. Low doesn’t dig in enough and zips right on out etc…….

    Pattern is definitely changing as we’re all noticing. SE ridge is going to end winter for mid-atlantic like after this week the latest. flatter flow….maybe a sneaky storm here or there but I think we’re going to fall short of that 95-96 record. Pattern ready to balance itself out.

    Could use a few weeks of tame weather in the 30’s & 40’s in order to avoid the next problem…..basement flooding

  6. shotime says:

    Joe, Is it safe to say that if anything falls in Brighton this week, it will be snow? I’m just getting the leaks under control this morning after last night’s rainstorm Please!!!! no more rain, at least until the ice dams are cleared from the gutters!

  7. MaryMack says:

    I asked last night and now i am asking today. Where is Baileyman and topkatt on these storms? I do love all of you and read your posts but you all people are always posting. Sorry but i respect bailey and topkat forecasts alot and just would like to hear their input too dONT wish to offend any of you thou. but honey it is warm out today. and nice break.

  8. Scott says:

    keep in mind that the GEM has preformed quite poorly this winter as of late, but does show a good snowfall with the 540 line pushing up towards the cape.
    lets see if the other models begin a westward trend, and hopefully not too west to cause a rain maker.

  9. Hadi says:

    Watch out Joe you will be accused of hyping things like some of us are on blog:)). Glad you put it out there that the chances still exist so that people don’t just assume we are making things up.

  10. JimmyJames says:

    Scott as I said earlier the late week storm POTENTIAL is just a watching game. I am not excited about snow right now
    As far as Monday night Tuesday I am giving that a 1 meaning a MINOR snowfall. I am hoping for a hit later in the week because I think this could be our last shot at getting a big snowfall this season.

  11. Spaniel says:

    JJ there is plenty of fun and more snow coming thru March. I don’t see winter just shutting down. Esp after this so called mild less snowy winter has turned out to be a good winter for snowlovers. For the late week storm I am wondering if like last night a high pressure off the SE USA will aid in sending the storm on a farther west track. No one had that Fridaynight nor did they have mid 40s for today. I bet its not an out to sea but where are we drawing rain/snow lines.

  12. Spaniel says:

    Henry M has written off the storm at the end of the week. That means its coming. I also think he is off on his Tue snowfall map. He is usually off anyway.

  13. scott says:

    So in other words you don’t know if or how much snow we might get on Tuesday. You just beat around the bush which is typical.

    1. Spaniel says:

      I don’t know how much is coming but I never agree with Henry. The end of the week storm is four days away. Wait and see. My best guess based on the info I looked at today is 2-4 for Tuesday. But it can always change, seeing all these storms have with in 12 hrs forget 24!!!!!

  14. Michael says:

    I have been a weather watcher for many years and storms of any kind excite me! I have a real passion for watching the fury of nature!! I also will say that it is getting time to start looking forward to spring!!

    I think we will likely see about 4-5 inches of snow from Monday night into Tuesday morning. I feel Joe is 100% right in saying we just need to watch Thursday as the computers have made many blown forecasts this season!!

  15. Joe Joyce says:

    No Scott. I am not certain how much we are going to get. I think it will be minor…1-4″, but as I have said…there is the potential for a bit more if we get a bit more phasing which the models are hinting at. I hope that is OK for now.

  16. alisonarod says:

    I still feel there would be mixing issues for Mon. night/Tuesday time frame even if the storm came close enough. However, if the storm were to deepen enough, NE winds could draw in colder air at the surface and allow for mostly snow. I’m not on board yet. Need to see more runs but certainly bears watching. Thursday is a non-event at this time but any ocean storm needs to be monitored for changes in track.

  17. Topkatt88 says:

    Hi guys & gals .. very quick post! Have to find a way to get 1 inch of smooth solid ice off my driveway before my super bowl party, but I sure did have fun standing at the top and sliding all the way down this morning (I’m serious, it was a blast, too bad I can’t leave it like that). Plus I got no heat until tomorrow so I’m collecting space heaters for 24 hours. ;-)

    Few rain showers late Monday ahead of a cold front? Snow threat 11pm Monday to 11am Tuesday except potential mix coast and probably mix/rain far southeastern MA. Where snow falls, a few inches? Wish I had more time to look at stuff right now but I don’t. I think Thursday is no longer an issue, a big miss, and just a cold day mid to late week. Pattern change next week? Maybe! More later. Hope the WBZ mets & other blog mets can chime in with thoughts on that. I probably won’t be back until later tonight sometime. Have a great day all!

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      CORRECTION: Above should read “cold dry mid to late week”. I said “day” by mistake. Peace!

  18. UFO says:

    We your galaxtic neighbors never beat around the bush! We are too busy flying through time space worm holes into your atmosphere . But we know you will receive 3 to 6 inches of snow in Southern New England states. After midnight early Tuesday and into early afternoon.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I don’t think humans care about your worm-hole snow predictions, I think some of them want you to use your space rays to get rid of the giant snow piles, roof snow, and sheets of ice.

  19. joe says:

    God you have a huge ego to think anyone really cares what you have to say or what your plans are.

  20. Hadi says:

    Some of us do care what he has to say:))

  21. itoldyouso says:

    Snow , no thanks –lol–lets get some sunny days in the 40’s that would be awesome !!!!!

  22. Steve-O says:

    12z Euro should be out soon .

    1. Matts44 says:

      Euro is out and it is out and further east with both storms. sorry folks who love snow. other than a few inches maybe tuesday this week is quiet. and for God sakes stop talking about Thursday there is no more snow there than indicated on Wednesday or Sunday of Next week! so please stop!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! only snow of any note will maybe fall Tuesday. im gone now

      1. Snowball Harry says:

        Thursdays storm could be historic from what Im seeing now!!

      2. smitty says:

        but the computer models are trending a tenth of a degree left of center on the latest runs and you know what that trend will continue and we are going to get historic snow of 4 to 6 feet in 12 hours on thursday you watch and please for gods sake stop talking about being sorry youre not sorry you are more sour than a jar of pickles in the sun in august and by the way it might snow in august!!!

      3. alisonarod says:

        We hope you stay gone

  23. UFO says:

    Give it up humans! Southern New England will see no more than 4 inches from Tuesday mornings snowfall. And as I communicated earlier there will be NO storm on Thursday!

  24. Steve-O says:

    1st off…it now looks like if their were a threat from any storm later this week ere in southern New England..its now more a thurs nt/Friday threat. This is a good 5 days away. Unsure why people are completely writing it off already?? That could be a mistake.

    1. Stanley says:

      Why are u bloggers attacking him for simply saying the storms miss? Your sensitive over storms? That makes little sense. Remember its a discussion and oposing views are welcome you said. Are you now going to contradict yourselves and attack someone who is predicting little storminess? Come on now, you are all better than that I hope.
      Besides I gotta tell ya I agree that Thursday looks like clear sailing now. Sorry its the truth though.

      1. joe says:

        Because if you go against the snow lovers here you are verbally attacked.

  25. Steve-O says:

    should say “there”

  26. leo says:

    Tues looks really small and Thursday is a sunny cold day! Thats the way it looks now!

  27. keepsnown says:

    matts44 is brianhackett

    1. scott says:

      no he’s not…i should know.

  28. squat says:

    Been a snow lover for 45 years. But after spending the last four+ weeks on my roof a nice break would be great !! I am on the interior North Shore and since X-Max we must have gotten 7 feet. That may sound crazy but if Boston got about 5 feet my estimate is very legit. Maybe some melting late next week and the following week with a zonal flow and then one more biggie at the end of the month. At least after that we would have almost dialy melting.

  29. James says:

    I have to agree that Tuesdays snow looks light and Thursdays looks non existant now
    As for Tuesday even the Canadian model which was saying 1.0 or greater precip Tuesday in earlier runs has backed off and cut in half the precipitation amounts now. At that one was the most robust so now it seems 2 to 4 inches at best. But nothing the rest of the week. Guess the new pattern is uneventful. Too bad the weather pattern has switched to boring. Now the late winter blues are sinking in and the excitment is gone. If so? Bring on Spring !

  30. metking says:

    euro seems to want to take that ‘thursday’ storm closer to the UK than new england now! im writing that one off. tuesday could still offer up a couple inches but still an outside chance

  31. Matts44 says:

    Im who? Brian hachett? someone should have told me than cause i must be living a lie and for 40 years! smh

  32. manowx says:


    Could you send me the photo of the hail you took Feb 2. You have my email.

    I have theorized that greater insolation in concert with greater greenhouse gas tends to produce milder late winters. It appears that is what were are about to enter. A milder period with slow melting of winter; no great relapses.

    So much for global cooling Anthropogenic global warming lives on!

  33. Leo says:

    Snow cover really getting hammered last night and today! Lost about 6 inches so far

  34. MartysInc. says:

    Talk about pulling the rug out from under all you snow lovers. The Canadians latest run goes from about 1 inch liquid in sne to .4 now. Big shift east! sorry snow lovers 2 to 4 in at best from that storm. and have to agree with other bloggers time to throw in the towel on Thursdays storm threat. have a good one

  35. alisonarod says:


    1. mr x says:

      Guess again sweetie.

  36. Mark says:

    alisonarod? Do you think you might be going a tad too overboard with all this equating or one name with another? Relax dear people have differing opinions and it does not mean they are all the same. Because in that case, you would be many blog names yourself.

  37. Bailyman says:

    Hi all- It is me the real Bailyman. Real quick post, what a day today with all the melting going on. First I do not think we have a storm on Thursday as this should be ots. Second Monday night bears watching, as we could see up to six inches
    where it stays all snow. I do believe a mix or rain event is going to happen on the cape, however this could work itself through Plymouth county as well. Need to run more later. Enjoy the day.

    1. Scott2 says:

      not baileyman !

  38. Steve-O says:

    Thursdays storm will be of historic proportions!! Models are trending that way!!!

  39. Steve-O says:

    ..that’s not me…another troll on the prowl.

  40. Snowball Manny says:

    Models are trending west and will continue to do so for the end of the weeks storm. Everyone is writing this one off…but i am here to say that Friday will be a day to remember as southern New England will be in the midst of a blizzard!!! Get ready people!

  41. JMA says:

    NAM/GFS/GEFS/ECWMF all deliver between .25 and .4 of QPF for the Monday Night/Tuesday event at BOS. Temps are marginal for snow at BOS. The further west you go the better support their is for snow, but the QPF is less. 1-3″ is the forecast. Thursday is a non-event.

  42. JMA says:

    The most snow any of the models put down in Boston is 1″ and that the only the GFS which has an unrealistic western fetch of strat precip.

    1. JMA says:

      Dear Me: Learn to Type. Signed Yourself.

  43. Snowball Manny says:

    Fridays storm is going to be huge!! This is not something we should be playing around with!!!!!

  44. JMA says:

    Although it has my name, I don’t have any love for the JMA. It is the friend of the forecaster who looks for the extreme solution. There is good agreement among the GFS/GEFS/ECWMF/NAM that Thursday is miss. The NAO is not going negative to the extent previously forecasted for Thursday and no ridge is developing out west. Between good model agreement and the lack of needed synoptic signs within the climate, to be looking for another solution just seems like a an unnecessary exercise.

  45. LawrenceWx says:

    Thanks JJ Excellent write up, as alway!!
    Should an interesting week to follow the models!!

  46. Snowball Manny says:

    …this is no different than a tuna casserole! The ingredients are all there! Now we just need the chef to do the cooking. The chef obviously being the models. Once the tuna shows up….BAM!! We have ourselves a southeastern Mass special!! Remember people, Friday is the day!

  47. ron says:

    Snowball man. Friday is ots- Everything is pointing to this. It is a sure miss. Next
    snow threat is Monday night, After that a cold and quiet week. Plus I am not going against BM.

  48. Snowball Manny says:

    BM stands for bowel movement! The ingredients are there and the chef is just running a little late! When he gets there….BAM BA BAM!! Southeastern MA special!!! You have my word on it!

    1. ron says:

      you are a fool and will look like a fool on friday troll boy.

  49. James says:

    Alot of fake posts today. Baileyman was not thre real deal nor was steve o

    1. DS says:

      Yeah…also, are the trolls arguing with themselves? It’s getting weird on here.

    2. Bailyman says:

      James- I am the real bailyman. Why would you state that.
      I will give a more detailed blog later this evening. Need to run.

      1. MaryMack says:

        I dont think you are BM either plus you spelled name wrong and he types alot more thoughly

      2. jon says:

        Who cares who you are and who he is? You are both useless.

  50. James says:

    latest nam shows less precip too so tuesdays snow looks at most a couple inches and Thursdays is by the boards now im no expert but even I can tell that much. so very boring week plus ahead

  51. JimmyJames says:

    The ingredients are not there for a storm at the end of the week. I am hoping that changes because I wanted one more big dumping before the pattern change.
    Monday night into Tuesday is a MINOR snow event.

  52. Snowball Manny says:

    Jimmyboy!! The ingredients are there…u just have to look a little harder for them!! The chef is running a little late…but like i said, when he gets there, BAM BA BAM BAM!!! Southeastern MA special! Fridays the day!

  53. James says:

    I dispute everything i just said!

  54. JimmyJames says:

    The negative NAO is not going to happen. The jet stream looks to be more of a zonal flow and no digging trough to scoop the low pressure up to bring it up the coast. I hope that changes because if you read my posts you know I am huge snowlover but I the reality is the setup is no good and ingredients are missing.

    1. toldyaso says:

      Tool…snow sucks.

  55. leo says:

    wouldt be surprised if one out of the two events comes closer than current guidance and nails us pretty good. Just look at this winter as a whole and how many times have two systems in a row missed us, ofcourse its possible for a double miss but I dont think so.

  56. Snowball Manny says:

    2 words people!! Tuna Casserole!!!! Friday’s storm will dump 6″+ on southeasten MA…and when it does…u can all bow down to the new KING of all forecasters!!

  57. Scott says:

    the 18z NAM wasn’t a total loss, showed a more organized storm, and was a tad closer.

  58. Stanley says:

    it was a less significant snowfall how can you say that scott? go compare the two latest runs

    1. Scott says:

      was talking about the storm over the ocean, which looked better. not the extra moisture, which i dont think the 06z and 18z runs pick up on very well.

      1. Spaneil says:

        The PNA is going to prevent any storm for us at the end of the week. The following week it’s suddenly S P R I N G for a time.

  59. Snowball Manny says:

    Storm will track closer to the coast late this week than indicated by latest operational models. The cook is running a little late but will show up next day or so. U are now looking at the sheriff of all forecasters…the prime rib of forecasters. Once u all realize this…BM will be downgraded to the hot dog of forecasting!

    1. ron says:

      You on drugs orwhat? You are a troll on this site, nobody is buying into what you say. Do you know how to read the nam? There will be no snow storm on Friday. I am going to repost all your blogs on Friday.

      1. Matt says:

        Yea…because Ron…you are so great at predicting storms a week away. Maybe WBZ should hire you since you are able to do something that even the real Mets can’t do. They can’t even predict storms 48 hours out. Hence yesterday’s “storm” which they said was going to be 6-9 inches on Thursday night.

      2. ron says:

        Yup, do you?

      3. Matt says:

        Do I what?

  60. James says:

    Why is my comment awaiting moderation???????? ill try again

    being a snow lover myself hate to say it scott but stanley is right here is the comparison of the latest nams starting with morning run then the latest;

  61. Paul says:

    hey people
    mets any late updates on Tues am? thanks

      1. Matt says:

        so that must mean 10 inches

  62. Austinevan says:

    Snowballs! There is not a snowballs chance in hell that we get the storm on Thursday! You are a complete fool and loser for wasting your time on here! Loser loser loser loser loser turd boy!!

    1. alisonarod says:

      I second that…What a dope!

  63. Snowball Manny says:

    Let me explain something to u homeslice….u WILL bow down to “the” Snowball Manny once this week is over! Storm will hit southeastern New England later this week!! Remember…”tuna casserole” guy!! Prime rib son!!

  64. Snowball Manny says:

    U HEAR me Austinbaby??

    1. ron says:

      Hey Snowball Manny. Plans for the superbowl tonight. Did not think so. Why do you try to stir things up, do you have nothing better to do. Talk weather with us and lets see what you know. If you know your weather great, If not that is ok. Tell me what says we are in for this big snow on Friday. Tell us what you know.

  65. utoldyouso says:

    peeps the models wee 75 miles off on the last storm within 24 hrs , who knows what thurs will bring , but i would no let my guard down!!

  66. itoldyouso says:

    nws sayas thurs storm is trending west so i rest my case

  67. mazza says:

    itoldyouso were did u see that any links??

  68. mazza says:

    18z GFS along with 0z 6z and 12z are doing the worst job handling this storm i am sticking with the EURO GEM and JMA on thease next storms

  69. ---------------- says:


  70. keepsnown says:

    snowhaters acting like snow lovers.what the!!!!!!!!!!!!

  71. ------------------ says:


  72. Snowball Manny says:

    one last comment before Snowball signs off to watch the superbowl. 1st off ——–, i am the prime rib of forecasting….and it will be proven this week! You will all be bowing down to the great Snowball Manny come Friday!!!!!!! Peace

  73. Longshot says:

    6 pm News. Forecast for Mon nite– Tues am

    Channel 5: 2-4″ for a wide area including Boston; less near coast.

    Channel 7: 2-4″ west of Boston (west of 128); 1″ in Boston and coast.

    Both said storm gone by 10 am. Tues

    1. coach23 says:

      fox said flurries

  74. Longshot says:

    Barry B. said rain followed by snow for Mon night- Tues.

    1-3″ in Boston. 3-5″ north and west.

  75. leo says:

    The guessing game begins! Im thinking around 3″ for Boston

  76. shotime says:

    PLEASE!!! Just no more rain! I’m already running 6 fans throughout the house tonight trying to dry up all the leaks. Enough, already! All enjoy the Superbowl. Time to go take my mind of this long day of clean-up and watch a good game of football, I hope!!

  77. matt says:

    2 possible storms 2 possibilities of a slamming or a miss.
    firststorm monday night through tuesday morning. amounts are still up in the air.
    but anywhere from 1-8 inches through out southern new england. there could be more if a closer tract comes.
    second storm looks as a miss as of right now but if it does occur it will be between thursday and thrusday night.
    good night all

    1. ron says:

      Matt that was good thank you.

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