Talk about a Super Sunday! So nice outside. In fact this is the warmest we have been since January 2nd when we reached 51 degrees. Nice to finally thaw a bit. Highs today will climb to 40 to 46 degrees in the sunshine and diminishing wind behind our departing low whose low pressure has dropped down to 981 mb over Nova Scotia. This low made for very strong winds during the overnight over the Cape and Islands with gusts over 50 mph. The winds are calming down…however conditions will still be breezy at times. Plenty of melting today…a good time to chip off a bit more ice around the house as many surfaces will soften in the afternoon sun. What a day to be skiing too! Sugarloaf to Sugarbush picking up to 8-12″ of new snow in the past 24 hours.
Now, onto our next weather makers. As previously mentioned, this week will be a wintry week ahead. Colder air will be pressing back into the US, plus there are two different storm systems to track. It is easy to write both of these off as non events and be on your merry way, but I am still cautious that this pattern could ramp up and we could see surprise snowfalls which exceed our expectations.
Let’s begin with the first…due to arrive late Monday night and Tuesday morning. We are tracking two waves of low pressure. From the National Weather Service Taunton:
THE FIRST WILL INITIATE CYCLOGENESIS ON A BAROCLINIC ZONE ESTABLISHED OVER THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE SECOND INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE GULF COAST AND
ALONG THE GULF STREAM. MODELS BEGINNING TO AGREE IN A PHASING OF THESE TWO WAVES.
The Canadian is pretty aggressive in the phasing and has a potent storm coming out of the Gulf and deepening south of Nantucket. The Euro has a similar look with a merging and deepening low off the Mid-Atlantic coast, but is a tad more to the south with it’s track, with slightly less precip and the low getting stronger a bit farther east off the coast. Still a solid swipe of snowfall here Tuesday morning. the GFS tries to keep the streams separate, but even that is starting to merge as well. So moral of the story here is that Tuesday morning is likely going to come with a thump of snow which may come as a surprise quick heavy snowfall. A heavier hit would mean 3-6+” of snow amounts…a lighter more disorganized less phased quick moving snow fall would mean 1-3″ before pulling away Tuesday midday-afternoon. I think the Canadian & Euro are handling this best. I also do not see much mixing with rain except maybe the Cape and the Islands and Plymouth county.
Cold arctic air pushes in for Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of the next storm. Some have written this storm for Thursday off as well…with good reason. Most models this morning have this tracking far enough from New England to have this storm missing us. That is certainly possible…but it is also just as easy for this storm to start trending westward in the next few model runs…so this bares watching. More information is needed before any real call can be made. The Canadian and GFS take this south and out to sea, While the Euro and the JMA have a track close enough to graze southern new England with snow. The JMA has the most precipitation and has track closest to New England. Definitely worth a look and something to consider.
The answer is in how well the models are handling the blocking over Greenland and eastern Canada…which I think is not very well at this point. The shortwaves we will have to watch for Thursday’s storm is still up in Alaska and the North Pole…so there is still plenty of time and real estate to play with before anything is nailed down here. The Euro is so close that any further adjustment west will mean a hit for SNE which the JMA is showing. In fact, the JMA has both storms hitting pretty good with moderate snow falls. So there is still some gas left in the tak…the question is how much? I wish I had more definite answers.
On the bright side of things….the trough swings through next weekend for one final blast of cold air. Then finally…a flat zonal flow develops in the jetstream which will lock the cold into Canada and flood the nation with mild Pacific air! A February thaw. The weather for Valentine’s day and beyond looks more temperate and less extreme. It is about time. A much needed breather from mother nature after delivering numerous punches to the gut.