A Little More Left In the Tank

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

Talk about a Super Sunday! So nice outside. In fact this is the warmest we have been since January 2nd when we reached 51 degrees. Nice to finally thaw a bit. Highs today will climb to 40 to 46 degrees in the sunshine and diminishing wind behind our departing low whose low pressure has dropped down to 981 mb over Nova Scotia. This low made for very strong winds during the overnight over the Cape and Islands with gusts over 50 mph. The winds are calming down…however conditions will still be breezy at times. Plenty of melting today…a good time to chip off a bit more ice around the house as many surfaces will soften in the afternoon sun. What a day to be skiing too! Sugarloaf to Sugarbush picking up to 8-12″ of new snow in the past 24 hours.

Now, onto our next weather makers. As previously mentioned, this week will be a wintry week ahead. Colder air will be pressing back into the US, plus there are two different storm systems to track. It is easy to write both of these off as non events and be on your merry way, but I am still cautious that this pattern could ramp up and we could see surprise snowfalls which exceed our expectations.

Let’s begin with the first…due to arrive late Monday night and Tuesday morning. We are tracking two waves of low pressure. From the National Weather Service Taunton:


The Canadian is pretty aggressive in the phasing and has a potent storm coming out of the Gulf and deepening south of Nantucket. The Euro has a similar look with a merging and deepening low off the Mid-Atlantic coast, but is a tad more to the south with it’s track, with slightly less precip and the low getting stronger a bit farther east off the coast. Still a solid swipe of snowfall here Tuesday morning. the GFS tries to keep the streams separate, but even that is starting to merge as well. So moral of the story here is that Tuesday morning is likely going to come with a thump of snow which may come as a surprise quick heavy snowfall.  A heavier hit would mean 3-6+” of snow amounts…a lighter more disorganized less phased quick moving snow fall would mean 1-3″ before pulling away Tuesday midday-afternoon. I think the Canadian & Euro are handling this best. I also do not see much mixing with rain except maybe the Cape and the Islands and Plymouth county.

Cold arctic air pushes in for Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of the next storm. Some  have written this storm for Thursday off as well…with good reason.  Most models this morning have this tracking far enough from New England to have this storm missing us. That is certainly possible…but it is also just as easy for this storm to start trending westward in the next few model runs…so this bares watching. More information is needed before any real call can be made. The Canadian and GFS take this south and out to sea, While the Euro and the JMA have a track close enough to graze southern new England with snow. The JMA has the most precipitation and has track closest to New England. Definitely worth a look and something to consider.

The answer is in how well the models are handling the blocking over Greenland and eastern Canada…which I think is not very well at this point. The shortwaves we will have to watch for Thursday’s storm is still up in Alaska and the North Pole…so there is still plenty of time and real estate to play with before anything is nailed down here.  The Euro is so close that any further adjustment west will mean a hit for SNE which the JMA is showing. In fact, the JMA has both storms hitting pretty good with moderate snow falls. So there is still some gas left in the tak…the question is how much? I wish I had more definite answers.

On the bright side of things….the trough swings through next weekend for one final blast of cold air. Then finally…a flat zonal flow develops in the jetstream which will lock the cold into Canada and flood the nation with mild Pacific air! A February thaw. The weather for Valentine’s day and beyond looks more temperate and less extreme. It is about time. A much needed breather from mother nature after delivering numerous punches to the gut.

  • WeatherWizard

    Thanks Joe!

    • Austin

      Joe, Kerry made your nachos for the game. Fabulous.

      Her Husband,


  • Mazza

    Joe do you think that the GFS will trend westward with the second storm too?

  • http://joejoycewbz.wordpress.com joejoycewbz

    Yes, I do think that there will be a trend westward after this dramatic shift to the south. I can not say if this will hit or be a miss…but I do think there will be an adjustment to the west..once the GFS model gets a better handle on the enrgy diving in..which I think it may be out to lunch on right now.

    • joe

      You can’t say if this will hit or be a miss? Isn’t that your job to forecast the weather?

  • JimmyJames

    I am still thinking a MINOR event for Tuesday on The Snow Index. This could change to a MODERATE event but it is highly unlikely to me at this point we a MAJOR Snow event
    As for Thursday its a watching game at this point.

  • retrac

    Hi gang,

    lifted my self imposed gag order about 40 minutes early-got some reading to do and wanted to chime in….

    Tuesday-To Joe’s point….Canadian has been pretty impressive for several runs now. I’ve been watching it more than the GFS and NAM for Tuesday because they’ve been too flaky (good pun right!) If the Canadian is right, decent thump for interior and less toward the coast. B.L. temps are going to start to have an affect now with brighter sky to TK’s point. I think we’re in for a good few inches on average.

    Thursday-Ridge in West isn’t in the right spot. NW flow here too strong. Looks like a big ULL in Canada providing strong NW flow. Low doesn’t dig in enough and zips right on out etc…….

    Pattern is definitely changing as we’re all noticing. SE ridge is going to end winter for mid-atlantic like after this week the latest. flatter flow….maybe a sneaky storm here or there but I think we’re going to fall short of that 95-96 record. Pattern ready to balance itself out.

    Could use a few weeks of tame weather in the 30’s & 40’s in order to avoid the next problem…..basement flooding

  • shotime

    Joe, Is it safe to say that if anything falls in Brighton this week, it will be snow? I’m just getting the leaks under control this morning after last night’s rainstorm Please!!!! no more rain, at least until the ice dams are cleared from the gutters!

  • MaryMack

    I asked last night and now i am asking today. Where is Baileyman and topkatt on these storms? I do love all of you and read your posts but you all people are always posting. Sorry but i respect bailey and topkat forecasts alot and just would like to hear their input too dONT wish to offend any of you thou. but honey it is warm out today. and nice break.

  • Scott

    keep in mind that the GEM has preformed quite poorly this winter as of late, but does show a good snowfall with the 540 line pushing up towards the cape.
    lets see if the other models begin a westward trend, and hopefully not too west to cause a rain maker.

  • Hadi

    Watch out Joe you will be accused of hyping things like some of us are on blog:)). Glad you put it out there that the chances still exist so that people don’t just assume we are making things up.

  • JimmyJames

    Scott as I said earlier the late week storm POTENTIAL is just a watching game. I am not excited about snow right now
    As far as Monday night Tuesday I am giving that a 1 meaning a MINOR snowfall. I am hoping for a hit later in the week because I think this could be our last shot at getting a big snowfall this season.

  • Spaniel

    JJ there is plenty of fun and more snow coming thru March. I don’t see winter just shutting down. Esp after this so called mild less snowy winter has turned out to be a good winter for snowlovers. For the late week storm I am wondering if like last night a high pressure off the SE USA will aid in sending the storm on a farther west track. No one had that Fridaynight nor did they have mid 40s for today. I bet its not an out to sea but where are we drawing rain/snow lines.

  • Spaniel

    Henry M has written off the storm at the end of the week. That means its coming. I also think he is off on his Tue snowfall map. He is usually off anyway.

  • scott

    So in other words you don’t know if or how much snow we might get on Tuesday. You just beat around the bush which is typical.

    • Spaniel

      I don’t know how much is coming but I never agree with Henry. The end of the week storm is four days away. Wait and see. My best guess based on the info I looked at today is 2-4 for Tuesday. But it can always change, seeing all these storms have with in 12 hrs forget 24!!!!!

  • Michael

    I have been a weather watcher for many years and storms of any kind excite me! I have a real passion for watching the fury of nature!! I also will say that it is getting time to start looking forward to spring!!

    I think we will likely see about 4-5 inches of snow from Monday night into Tuesday morning. I feel Joe is 100% right in saying we just need to watch Thursday as the computers have made many blown forecasts this season!!

  • Joe Joyce

    No Scott. I am not certain how much we are going to get. I think it will be minor…1-4″, but as I have said…there is the potential for a bit more if we get a bit more phasing which the models are hinting at. I hope that is OK for now.

  • alisonarod

    I still feel there would be mixing issues for Mon. night/Tuesday time frame even if the storm came close enough. However, if the storm were to deepen enough, NE winds could draw in colder air at the surface and allow for mostly snow. I’m not on board yet. Need to see more runs but certainly bears watching. Thursday is a non-event at this time but any ocean storm needs to be monitored for changes in track.

  • Topkatt88

    Hi guys & gals .. very quick post! Have to find a way to get 1 inch of smooth solid ice off my driveway before my super bowl party, but I sure did have fun standing at the top and sliding all the way down this morning (I’m serious, it was a blast, too bad I can’t leave it like that). Plus I got no heat until tomorrow so I’m collecting space heaters for 24 hours. ;-)

    Few rain showers late Monday ahead of a cold front? Snow threat 11pm Monday to 11am Tuesday except potential mix coast and probably mix/rain far southeastern MA. Where snow falls, a few inches? Wish I had more time to look at stuff right now but I don’t. I think Thursday is no longer an issue, a big miss, and just a cold day mid to late week. Pattern change next week? Maybe! More later. Hope the WBZ mets & other blog mets can chime in with thoughts on that. I probably won’t be back until later tonight sometime. Have a great day all!

    • Topkatt88

      CORRECTION: Above should read “cold dry mid to late week”. I said “day” by mistake. Peace!

  • UFO

    We your galaxtic neighbors never beat around the bush! We are too busy flying through time space worm holes into your atmosphere . But we know you will receive 3 to 6 inches of snow in Southern New England states. After midnight early Tuesday and into early afternoon.

    • Topkatt88

      I don’t think humans care about your worm-hole snow predictions, I think some of them want you to use your space rays to get rid of the giant snow piles, roof snow, and sheets of ice.

  • joe

    God you have a huge ego to think anyone really cares what you have to say or what your plans are.

  • Hadi

    Some of us do care what he has to say:))

  • itoldyouso

    Snow , no thanks –lol–lets get some sunny days in the 40’s that would be awesome !!!!!

  • Steve-O

    12z Euro should be out soon .

    • Matts44

      Euro is out and it is out and further east with both storms. sorry folks who love snow. other than a few inches maybe tuesday this week is quiet. and for God sakes stop talking about Thursday there is no more snow there than indicated on Wednesday or Sunday of Next week! so please stop!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! only snow of any note will maybe fall Tuesday. im gone now

      • Snowball Harry

        Thursdays storm could be historic from what Im seeing now!!

      • smitty

        but the computer models are trending a tenth of a degree left of center on the latest runs and you know what that trend will continue and we are going to get historic snow of 4 to 6 feet in 12 hours on thursday you watch and please for gods sake stop talking about being sorry youre not sorry you are more sour than a jar of pickles in the sun in august and by the way it might snow in august!!!

      • alisonarod

        We hope you stay gone

  • UFO

    Give it up humans! Southern New England will see no more than 4 inches from Tuesday mornings snowfall. And as I communicated earlier there will be NO storm on Thursday!

  • Steve-O

    1st off…it now looks like if their were a threat from any storm later this week ere in southern New England..its now more a thurs nt/Friday threat. This is a good 5 days away. Unsure why people are completely writing it off already?? That could be a mistake.

    • Stanley

      Why are u bloggers attacking him for simply saying the storms miss? Your sensitive over storms? That makes little sense. Remember its a discussion and oposing views are welcome you said. Are you now going to contradict yourselves and attack someone who is predicting little storminess? Come on now, you are all better than that I hope.
      Besides I gotta tell ya I agree that Thursday looks like clear sailing now. Sorry its the truth though.

      • joe

        Because if you go against the snow lovers here you are verbally attacked.

  • Steve-O

    should say “there”

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