Well, that was fun. Not really. Midday runs ramped up with a westward trend and a deeper storm south of New England. This put me on alert for the potential of a stronger snowier solution…and foolishly bit on it for my noon broadcast. Nice. Only to find out the HPC issues a statement at 12:30 that the weather models are having initialization problems and to throw out the runs. Good timing guys.
12Z Euro finally comes out and now this has trended farther east with the storm bombing out southeast of New England but with a track far enough away that it only clips southeast MA. Tough.
But if you take the 00z runs, throw away those midday runs and the JMA! ;)…and take into account the 12Z Euro and GFS ensembles…there is not much saying this is going to be a major hit at this point. The HPC says they are leaning toward the 00Z Euro and 06 GFS…as a middle ground which makes me really wish I did not upgrade the storm at noon. Live an learn I guess. Onto the the next model runs…and precious time with the family. See you tomorrow with hopefully with some better data and continued model consistency.
Very Very Frustrating. My fault making a call this early.