He Shoots…Wide Right!

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

Well, that was fun. Not really. Midday runs ramped up with a westward trend and a deeper storm south of New England. This put me on alert for the potential of a stronger snowier solution…and foolishly bit on it for my noon broadcast. Nice. Only to find out the HPC issues a statement at 12:30 that the weather models are having initialization problems and to throw out the runs.  Good timing guys.

12Z Euro finally comes out and now this has trended farther east with the storm bombing out southeast of New England but with a track far enough away that it only clips southeast MA.  Tough.

 But if you take the 00z runs, throw away those midday runs and the JMA! ;)…and take into account the 12Z Euro and GFS ensembles…there is not much saying this is going to be a major hit at this point. The HPC says they are leaning toward the 00Z Euro and 06 GFS…as a middle ground which makes me really wish I did not upgrade the storm at noon. Live an learn I guess. Onto the the next model runs…and precious time with the family. See you tomorrow with hopefully with some better data and continued model consistency.

Very Very Frustrating. My fault making a call this early.

  • todd

    A lesson learned? Doubtful since you do this all the time.

  • Spaniel

    The storm is off. OFF……Guess we wait until 2011.

    • StormChaser

      Any snow in sight through January???

  • Spaniel

    Storms off. No snowstorms until 2011. What winter? JFM or next Dec???

  • Steve-O

    what could joe j do in this situation?? The NWS put their discussion out at 12:30 this afternoon…just after Joe Joyce came on at 12:15. Not his fault. By the way, this doesnt mean a total miss for SE New England…things can and probably will change.

  • Euro jones

    Joe, you should really have that noon forecast yanked down from the site!! Don’t worry about the TV broadcast, everyone is out doing last minute shopping anyway.

  • leo

    things will change again

  • Jen

    More for Western MA now? Or is storm off totally?

  • snowyman

    i agree leo…

  • MetoNorth

    Bye Bye Monster Storm!!

  • Rock

    Things will definately change for the better more western trend in my opinion. There are a lot of models still showing a good storm and even the models that arent show at least a small amount of snow.

  • alisonarod

    Models do not look good. Still forecasting that western track.

  • Scott

    thats just wonderful, i didnt get too excited until i saw consistency for a few runs. we’ll see what the 18z GFS shows later on, aswell as the 18z NAM, which was the winner last go around

  • wantoplow

    so how come this morning it looked like it was going to hit and now after one run everyone is so quik to say no storm couldnt it flip again?

  • Charlie

    :) snow breeds snow, can’t wait for it to snow again, maybe this is the year for southern and eastern Massachusetts, looks like some snow for me:)

  • Willy13

    Check out the 12z JMA that just came out,consistent with the 12z GFS and has the direct hit. Was that mis-initialized? Definitely having fun now…….

  • NotThatJoe

    Barry will have an easy day in the weather office on Sunday…not another storm in sight for a while.

  • Scott

    Willy can i have a link of the JMA

  • JingleNorEastor

    So close Yet So Far!

  • Willy13

    Scott, don’t have that, it’s on Accuweather…….

  • wowza

    If I am reading this blog right, it went from a HIT to a MISS in a matter of fifteen minutes????

  • Haidi

    With temps 40plus starting next Thursday, our next storm will be a direct hit, but of course with lots of rain.

  • Scott

    Can’t believe I blew this one too!
    I was thinking over a foot. Now nadda!

  • Longshot

    The models will of course move again. Some too far east will move back slightly west and vice versa. Models as of now seem to find a solution and over-adjust. Then they compensate by moving back the other way. I think that’s a given. In the end how far will they move?

  • Scott

    18z NAM coming in now

  • Willy13
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