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He Shoots…Wide Right!

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

Well, that was fun. Not really. Midday runs ramped up with a westward trend and a deeper storm south of New England. This put me on alert for the potential of a stronger snowier solution…and foolishly bit on it for my noon broadcast. Nice. Only to find out the HPC issues a statement at 12:30 that the weather models are having initialization problems and to throw out the runs.  Good timing guys.

12Z Euro finally comes out and now this has trended farther east with the storm bombing out southeast of New England but with a track far enough away that it only clips southeast MA.  Tough.

 But if you take the 00z runs, throw away those midday runs and the JMA! ;)…and take into account the 12Z Euro and GFS ensembles…there is not much saying this is going to be a major hit at this point. The HPC says they are leaning toward the 00Z Euro and 06 GFS…as a middle ground which makes me really wish I did not upgrade the storm at noon. Live an learn I guess. Onto the the next model runs…and precious time with the family. See you tomorrow with hopefully with some better data and continued model consistency.

Very Very Frustrating. My fault making a call this early.


One Comment

  1. todd says:

    A lesson learned? Doubtful since you do this all the time.

  2. Spaniel says:

    The storm is off. OFF……Guess we wait until 2011.

    1. StormChaser says:

      Any snow in sight through January???

  3. Spaniel says:

    Storms off. No snowstorms until 2011. What winter? JFM or next Dec???

  4. Steve-O says:

    what could joe j do in this situation?? The NWS put their discussion out at 12:30 this afternoon…just after Joe Joyce came on at 12:15. Not his fault. By the way, this doesnt mean a total miss for SE New England…things can and probably will change.

  5. Euro jones says:

    Joe, you should really have that noon forecast yanked down from the site!! Don’t worry about the TV broadcast, everyone is out doing last minute shopping anyway.

  6. leo says:

    things will change again

  7. Jen says:

    More for Western MA now? Or is storm off totally?

  8. snowyman says:

    i agree leo…

  9. MetoNorth says:

    Bye Bye Monster Storm!!

  10. Rock says:

    Things will definately change for the better more western trend in my opinion. There are a lot of models still showing a good storm and even the models that arent show at least a small amount of snow.

  11. alisonarod says:

    Models do not look good. Still forecasting that western track.

  12. Scott says:

    thats just wonderful, i didnt get too excited until i saw consistency for a few runs. we’ll see what the 18z GFS shows later on, aswell as the 18z NAM, which was the winner last go around

  13. wantoplow says:

    so how come this morning it looked like it was going to hit and now after one run everyone is so quik to say no storm couldnt it flip again?

  14. Charlie says:

    :) snow breeds snow, can’t wait for it to snow again, maybe this is the year for southern and eastern Massachusetts, looks like some snow for me:)

  15. Willy13 says:

    Check out the 12z JMA that just came out,consistent with the 12z GFS and has the direct hit. Was that mis-initialized? Definitely having fun now…….

  16. NotThatJoe says:

    Barry will have an easy day in the weather office on Sunday…not another storm in sight for a while.

  17. Scott says:

    Willy can i have a link of the JMA

  18. JingleNorEastor says:

    So close Yet So Far!

  19. Willy13 says:

    Scott, don’t have that, it’s on Accuweather…….

  20. wowza says:

    If I am reading this blog right, it went from a HIT to a MISS in a matter of fifteen minutes????

  21. Haidi says:

    With temps 40plus starting next Thursday, our next storm will be a direct hit, but of course with lots of rain.

  22. Scott says:

    Can’t believe I blew this one too!
    I was thinking over a foot. Now nadda!

  23. Longshot says:

    The models will of course move again. Some too far east will move back slightly west and vice versa. Models as of now seem to find a solution and over-adjust. Then they compensate by moving back the other way. I think that’s a given. In the end how far will they move?

  24. Scott says:

    18z NAM coming in now

  25. Charlie says:

    The closer to the coast u r the more snow u will get 2-4 Boston/Providence south and east, north and west if 495 nothing, in between a coating to a couple inches, :) let it snow

  26. Southy says:

    We will not be able to track the storms together in January. WBZ shutting down blog!

  27. Kindle says:

    a coating up to 4″ from this mega storm? Hit the store now and stock up on milk and bread NOW

  28. Spaniel says:

    The models are shifting to the current solutions because the players are on the field. Joe Lundberg explained why this was not going to happen. Maybe for Cape Cod and Maine but the rest are off the hook.

  29. retrac says:

    oh man…poor Joe…..the machines are in control!

    How’d the same ‘fat finger’ that shaved 1000 pts. off the stock market end up in the GFS!

  30. Scott says:

    thanks willy, im not sure if that came out with the problems that the last models had. but thats a monster

  31. melzzz says:

    As I commented on an earlier blog post, I rarely if ever listen to any forecasts anymore that are more than 24 hours out — especially in the winter. Most TV meteorologists are far more often wrong then right when forecasting doomsday storm after doomsday storm. It’s all for the ratings folks.

  32. manowx says:

    weak impulses seen on satelite imagery. This should be no surprise. Sun very hot moderating northern stream Thermal gradient stinks.

    turn out the lights the party’s over.

  33. manowx says:

    Boston probably wont get much below 10 F this winter for a lowest min

  34. hcarool says:

    manowx, nothing is over yet. We have 3 days before the storm hits or misses. That’s a lot of time for models to trend west.

  35. manowx says:

    even light snows have some people cranking up the gas snowthrowers. Laziness and global warming go hand in hand

  36. southshoretom says:

    BCS Model Standings

    12/24 (Last week in parentheses)

    1) NAM (3)
    2) EURO (2)
    3) Canadian (4)
    4) UK Met (5)
    70) GFS (53)
    125) JMA

    NAM moves up to #1 due to its excellent handling of last Monday’s southeast Mass snowstorm.
    EURO maintains its consistency at #2, but falls below the NAM for its projection of a deep storm south of Long Island on 12/26 earlier in the week.
    GFS continues its poor performance, falling 17 spots to #70.
    JMA breaks into our poll at #125. After looking at its latest 12z run, its lucky it didn’t come in at #200.

  37. manowx says:

    models are over doing the dynamics Just look at satellite

  38. manowx says:

    the only thing going for this storm is the baroclinic zone

  39. manowx says:

    This winter will be over by late Jan

  40. manowx says:

    Forecasters are looking like fools

  41. dave says:

    pete bouchard saying not even flurries for boston

  42. BaileyMan says:

    latest 18z nam is actually closer to coast further west wow..the perplexing model flip flopping continues?! trending west now hold your horses all!!!!!!!!!!

  43. Scott says:

    lol! 18z NAM even further west, hold on tight!

  44. Scott says:

    it also has that storm to the north of us further north, allowing this storm to hit us hard.

  45. Steve-O says:

    does the 18z NAM have initialization problems. Its shifted west!

  46. Scott says:

    maybe Joe doesnt have to apologizes after all, remember, all the other models but the NAM got the last storm WRONG. so i think the NAM is the way to go with this one.

  47. Steve-O says:

    18Z NAM very similar to 12Z GFS…these models are unreal!

  48. Scott says:

    this one aint over, best run i’ve seen

  49. alisonarod says:

    Lol. This board cracks me up. What an emotional rollercoaster ride. Folks, this storm, unlike the last one will get us. I’ve been advertising it all week. Stop relying solely on the models. If anything, they are like a spider bite.

  50. Longshot says:

    As i said above.

    The models will of course move again. Some too far east will move back slightly west and vice versa. Models as of now seem to find a solution and over-adjust. Then they compensate by moving back the other way. I think that’s a given. In the end how far will they move?

    I would expect another EURO shift if not a couple.

  51. Willy13 says:

    So we have the GFS 12z, the JMA 12z, and now the NAM 18z with the hit, and believe the 00z last night had the hit too. No consistency, so big storm still in play…….

  52. Topkatt says:

    scott that model is not factoring in downstream phasing,the storm is starved for development

  53. JimmyJames says:

    I maintain my stance that we will get some snow out of this but not a blockbuster.

  54. Scott says:

    the NAM has been slowly trended west over time, not all of a sudden like other models, so that model should NOT be tossed.

  55. haterain says:

    Is anyone wondering why Topkatt waits to comment. These models are a joke. I guarantee Topkatt gets this right again. With all do respect to the paid mets please someone tell us what there gut feels. They watch the models like us amateurs do. They are good that is why the get paid. What do they think?

  56. Scott says:

    lol this is the QPF of the latest NAM, we’ll see what happens

  57. metking says:

    Agree with topkatt, look closely the wave is out of position. Throw that sucker run out too!

  58. haterain says:

    Joe are you pulling your hair out yet?

  59. metking says:

    Please don’t get excited by that y’all..its a miss by all reliable accts

  60. Flowergirl says:

    Hi All I posted this accidentally to the older blog Joe wrote so I’m reposting here: a few quick questions: is the 540mb line only on the GFS, or can it be found on the NAM, GEM and EURO models? Also, can someone explain what Windex means (other than a window cleaner!) :) Thanks so much, think snow, and MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!

  61. alisonarod says:

    I wouldn’t count on what the NAM is saying which is feet in Boston and even up to 10 inches all the way back toward albany NY! Yet, I wouldn’t be surprised to see over a foot in Boston!

  62. BaileyMan says:

    topkatt in the end 2 runs later during last storm the nams were dead on as a matter of fact! during this time they were under playing now they are forecasting more snow precip earlier on they have been trending west! as for phasing that actually will occur earlier thats my whole point i actually scrutinize synoptic and upper air data and note that it does not correlate with the Euro actually! last time i did this it DID pay off !! which i keep saying! this time the Euro is going to have to adjust and i virtually guarantee you bloggers that the Euro will compensate east by next run!! i am 95% certain!!! so hold your horses it aint over the Fat lady has taken a few steps back!!

  63. strye44 says:

    I agree with Topkatt also, his track record has been good. Although I hope he is wrong

  64. BaileyMan says:

    i meant the Euro will compensate moving the track west!!! lol sorry

  65. Scott says:

    let me explain this, LAST storm, all the models EXCEPT the NAM showed a few flurries if anything. the NAM however, was showing moisture getting thrown back into coastal areas, around this time last week, and thats just what happened. this pattern is so messed up, that most of the models can’t handle it.
    even with that said, we should wait for the 18z GFS and the 00z NAM to verify the latest solution before we all get excited.

  66. BaileyMan says:

    strye44 Topkatt is good! but last storm if you read his blogs prior he was not exactly dead on! with all do respect if you research mine i was correct now having said that there is a slim chance topkatt will be correct on this one…but i highly DOUBT IT! IN FACT! IT WILL DUMP ON US! SO WHEN IT DOES??! PLEASE NOTE THE NAME BAILEYMAN! THANKS LOL

  67. hcarool says:

    I wonder was HPC will say about this latest NAM

  68. tom says:

    matt lambert of channel 7 saying storm is going out to sea

  69. bigfoot says:

    Tom Go away!!

  70. Bozzs says:

    matt lambert of channel 7 saying storm is going out to sea

    Who ?????

  71. metking says:

    Bailey, tk is automatic. If he says its a no go then its off

  72. stebet123 says:

    In eastern New England and New Brunswick, the storm could track close enough to unleash more substantial and wind-whipped snow Sunday night into Monday. Boston and Portland lie within this zone.

    If the storm rapidly strengthens Sunday night, winds will become even stronger and unleash an all-out blizzard. latest from accu weather

  73. Longshot says:

    It’s Joe Lambert

  74. kat says:

    I don’t know what to think of all the model runs….I know i want snow but they don’t look great for us outside of 495. However, I have been waiting for the internal forecaster to kick in…my bones…they are a-aching this afternoon….maybe……..Merry Christmas all!

  75. WeatherWizard says:

    Is Bill Belichick writing thye technical discussion for the NWS in Mt. Holly, NJ


  76. Phil67 says:

    paul kocin back on snow train,says all out blizzard very possible now storm might set up shop right near benchmark

    1. firefly says:

      Same Paul Kozin who said the same thing about last storm. If he says it about every storm then he will eventually be right….maybe.

  77. strye44 says:

    Bailey I have been reading this blog for a long time and Topkatt has done a great job forecasting. nobody is ever going to be 100% correct in this field.

    1. Clever says:

      Oh yeah, he did a great job on the last storm….umm, they got over a foot on the cape….dynamite work by Topkatt…he nailed that

  78. Old Salty says:

    18Z NAM!!!

  79. hcarool says:

    Old Salty, if that run verifies, were are in for a hell of a season

  80. Scott says:

    that 18z NAM had 2 ft+ for boston. only if that would verify..

  81. Old Salty says:

    Total precip Map for NAM 18Z

    1. Chris says:

      If that were to verify.. someplace could get 3 ft. very interesting to see

  82. leo says:

    What the heck is going on? Just woke up from a three hour nap and the first thing I did was look at the 18z nam. What a ride this is. Have no idea what to think.

  83. JimmyJames says:

    I would love for the latest run of the NAM to be correct but in reality I think were looking at something down the middle not a direct hit but not out to sea. I am not throwing in the towel on this one. Keep thining Snow Snowlovers!

  84. Steve-O says:

    what part of New England do u live JimmyJames?? U must be in the western part of MA if you’re giving up at this point.

  85. Longshot says:

    WHDH (7): If you AVERAGE the 2 tracks, then 6+” for Cape and islands; less as you move inland.

    1. ScottF says:

      Channel 7 meteorlogy team seems to be the least reliable of all the Boston stations. They completely shift thinking with every model flip & flop rather than being more patient & looking for trends.

  86. JimmyJames says:

    I am not giving up on this storm. The last post I said was I am not throwing in the towel on this storm and all week I have been saying I don’t were going to see a blockbuster and I don’t think it is going to go out to sea but we will see some snow. The further east you live in Southern New England the more snow you will see based on what I think is going to happen.

  87. Scott says:

    to me, they didnt really know whats going to happen, 50-50

  88. earl says:

    forecasting was better ten years ago

  89. Steve-O says:

    18Z GFS hold its ground. Slams mid-atlantic with major snowstorm! 18Z GFS/NAM in agreement!

  90. JimmyJames says:

    Were not going to know what this thing is going to due until sometime tomorrow and maybe later. Who knows this may turn into a nowcasting situation.

  91. BaileyMan says:

    first of all for all those harassing me?! i in no way am disrespecting Topkatt!! in fact , i look foward to hearing how he progs storms…all i am saying is in my opinion on this one he will be wrong!!!! if i am wrong ??! so be it!!! but i dont think i will be !!! i am holding my forecast intact for a big nor easter! merry christmas all!

    1. strye44 says:

      Baileyman I am not harassing you, I hope your right and Topkatt’s wrong

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        Don’t worry about it. I like blogging with BM, and you too as well strye44. Keep posting. :-)

  92. tj says:

    does anyone know if the initialization problems have been fixed yet? The gfs looks pretty good so far.


  93. Topkatt88 says:

    HI all!
    Merry Christmas Eve!

    A couple things…
    1) BaileyMan is right. I was not exactly on that storm and explained what I got wrong and why.
    2) Whoever decided to imposter me earlier by signing a blog “Topkatt”. You forgot the 88. And you can tell it wasn’t me by the typing style anyway. So if you’re gonna impersonate me, do it right. ;-) Otherwise don’t bother!

  94. WeatherWizard says:

    Watch harvey Leonard at 5:15-he is gaining more confidence that we will be getting heavy snow and winds-he will elaborate on this in 15 minutes.

  95. philip says:

    Harvey Leaonard at 5:00 said that a hit is becoming more and more likely…to the point now that the coast could even change to rain with heavy snows shifting inland!

  96. Topkatt88 says:

    oh and 3) … The 18z NAM works with alot less data on initialization than the 12z does…so just keep that in mind before you get too excited. :-)

  97. Scott says:

    i noticed the no 88 in topkatt’s post, i thought something was up too. im waiting for more consistency from the NAM before i get excited

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Don’t worry Scott. You’ll always know who the real Top88 is. And eventually the imposter will get bored and go away. :-)

      Also, this site should soon have a login feature that will make it much harder to sign the blog as someone else.

      1. philip says:

        Also Topkatt, will this site soon have a feature that stops “refreshing”?

  98. BaileyMan says:


  99. Scott says:

    QPF from 18z GFS, game on?

  100. JimmyJames says:

    Philip to me the question to me this week was how much snow were we going to get. I am still keeping the SNOW INDEX at 2 for now but stand by because that is going to change and hopefully an increase in the values for the snowlovers like me.

  101. jack says:

    HEY HATERAIN “how you doin now”???????????? Felling a little usless?
    FULL BELLY ROLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  102. Topkatt88 says:

    I don’t often do this but for the 2nd time in a row I am going to disagree with Harvey.

  103. leo says:

    I think you may be on to something Earl. Why is that? No disrespect to any forecaster now but it does seem that 10 -20 years ago they didnt bounce back and forth as much with there forecasts. I know technology is better but it doesnt seem like it has helped much

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Much less models to look at to bounce around on 10 to 20 years ago. :-) Simple answer.

  104. Scott says:

    a login feature would be helpful

  105. leo says:

    Makes sense! Thanks Top

  106. philip says:

    Harvey thinks for now that Central and Eastern MA gets hammered with slnow…with the Cape a snow to rain deal.

  107. Topkatt88 says:

    Sidenote to WBZ: Sorry to have watched your competition. ;-)

    It looks like Harvey is using the exact same headline graphic from a week ago for the potentials for the storm. He seems to be all out on it. I think he’s jumping the gun. I know we’re just over 48 hours from it but I’m not comfortable going for it yet. Too much uncertainty and I’d rather make someone wait and be more likely to have the right call.

    That said, I hope he’s right. Just don’t think he will be.

    1. coach23 says:

      He was all about it the last time and then had all sorts of excuses when things changed.

  108. hcarool says:

    Harvey has me in a heavy snow zone. YES!!!!!!

    1. ScottF says:

      That looks perfect!

  109. Scott says:

    i looked away before i saw that 45 on todd’s 7 day

  110. eddie says:

    If we don’t get this storm what are you all gonna whine about next?

  111. Longshot says:

    Todd; High Chance for 6+” on Cape; Medium Chance for 6+” Boston/Metrowest/No Shore/ So Shore

  112. Larry69 says:

    This is Harvey’s kast forecast until after the storm that’s why he’s putting a stake in the ground! Here’s hoping is educated guess is right on target!!!!

  113. Scott says:

    Matt Noyes seems to be going with the big storm, Saturday will be the deciding day of what will happen. when does tomorrow start?

  114. philip says:

    Todd is fairly similar to Harvey in the sense regarding rain for the Cape, but not quite buying into “heavy” snow for E MA and westward.

    Chris Lambert is now mentioning the possibliity of heavy snow for Boston, but like Todd, not “quite” committed just yet.

  115. BaileyMan says:

    the Euro s next run will be west it also had difficulty last run it will move west!!! trust me! i think 10 to 20 where all snow seems likely and a 24 hour storm seems possible more later have a great christmas eve all!

  116. JimmyJames says:

    This saga continues yet again. I’ll be back to chat with all of you later on as I go to a holiday party.

  117. philip says:

    Topkatt, any chance that this site will ever have a feature that stops refreshing while one is posting or just reading?

    Also, it’s a good thing you have that “88” attached to your name. ;-)

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      philip… Good question. I’m hoping that is the case.

      Do you know what the 88 stands for?

      1. philip says:

        Topkatt…no, I have no idea what the 88 stands for. Should I know??

  118. Topkatt88 says:

    I just can’t discount the 12z Euro & UKMET right now. I’m not biting the bait yet.

    Hints at a blocking pattern breakdown in about 1 week. Will the New Year start with mild rain showers? Possibly. (I know, jumping ahead, sorry, but I did medium range 8-15 day outlooks for 6 continents for years – I’m used to it!). :-)

    1. Longshot says:

      The exact date for rain is January 3rd. I can give you precip amounts right now though by area around Boston. i am practicing to become a TV met.

  119. matt says:

    i am still thinking a wide spread 5ot 10 inhes across eastern mass but coast cape and islands will possibly get 10 + inches with 5 inches or less in centeral and wetern mass. this will probblably change do to the fact it is still 2 days away hope for a good big nor-easter

  120. Derek99 says:

    It seems like little kids wont be the only ones wait for presents on Christmas morning…..only ours will come from the models hopefully ps new to the blog, but I have been following it for quite some time now

  121. crashralph says:

    I’m not going to lie I do have a drink in in front of me. But I can now see things have gotten pretty interesting again. SO how much for Boston. Is 15 plus to much? I don’t think so!!!!

  122. philip says:

    Harvey at 5:45 now calling for a general 6-12″ of snow for the greater Boston metro area with much less to the west and rain mixing on the Cape.

  123. Scott says:

    that storm has so much potential to produce so much more than 6-12

  124. philip says:

    Harvey has now broadbrushed a swath of 6-12″ for ALL of SNE…with N.Y.C. perhaps involved as well.

  125. Kyle says:

    new blog topic up now.

    1. philip says:

      Kyle….thanks! :-)

  126. Eric says:

    So I found these forums a few weeks back and have really enjoyed the reading and have actually started to learn some but this thread is killing me ! I go from really excited to downright depressed to really excited again. This cannot be healthy for me. I guess what this is teaching me personally is to wait wait wait, say 24 hours until expected storm ;)

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