Light Coating Before Christmas

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV
Joe Joyce

Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV meteorologist

The Strong Ocean Storm over 1,000 miles away is wrapping it’s final piece of energy into New England today.  An evening lull from snowfall along with well salted and sanded roads has made the morning commute go off without a hitch.

Snow had redeveloped this morning..coming in two batches. The final batch of light snow is pushing from Southern Maine into Eastern Mass for the late morning and midday. Light snow will be tapering off this afternoon…but it could take the Cape and islands most of the day for the snow to finally end. Temps will be warming into the upper 30’s, so some of this light snow at the coast may start to mix with a light rain. It appears the jackpot of snow was in Norfolk county where Millis and Mansfield have seen 4.25″ of snow so far and could pick up a little more before it’s all finally over. Additional coatings to 1″ are expected.

Coastal Flood Advisories are up for eastern Massachusetts beaches south of Boston thanks to High astronomical tides and seas up to 10-15 feet offshore. The midday high tide will see rough surf and big breakers on the sea walls. Flood prone shore roads may see debris and localized street flooding as the water rises.

Skies will be clearing this evening with cool drier air moving in with a NW wind. Lows will drop below freezing. There could be a few areas of black ice tonight. Sunshine and fair weather will greet the Christmas holiday with dry conditions for Friday and Saturday with temps cooling to near 32 for highs. The below normal trend continues for this December which is the first below normal month we have seen since December 2009…1 year ago!

The Storm

It’s what everyone wants to talk about. The latest 06z GFS has a track very similar to the Euro. This storm is coming out of the Gulf of Mexico, up the east coast where it will begin to strengthen east of the Carolinas. Once north of Cape Hatteras, this storm is likely going to undergo “bombogenesis” and explode into a very strong storm just to the east of Nantucket. The GFS has tracked further west with it’s recent run..The Euro has shown amazing consistency. This storm looks really nasty. If it were to occur the way it looks today it would be loaded with moisture…snow amounts of 1-2 feet with winds over 50 mph at the coast. It simply looks like a blizzard. I am not saying this will happen…YET…just what it LOOKS like.

But there is still plenty of uncertainty this far out. The Canadian, UKMET and JMA keep the storm mostly south and offshore. So it is not nailed down by any means…but the potential for a major blockbuster storm certainly exists. I wish I could give you more details…but you know the game. Too much could change between now and then for any definite answers…. Until then, stay safe and enjoy the Holidays with your loved ones.

Comments

One Comment

  1. Old Salty says:

    Thank You Joe. Your input is much appreciated.

    Let’s hope this storm has no tricks up its sleeve like the last one. There sure seems to be some model consistency now. Sure hope it doesn’t change in the other direction and end up a coastal hugger or dare I say, inside runner!

    Still 3+ days away. We’ll have the NAM in our arsenal soon.

    1. itoldyouso says:

      The latest gfs18z run has storm to far east for a moajor storm , wait till the next one snow lovers

  2. JimmyJames says:

    In case anyone missed myl SNOW INDEX for the Sunday Monday storm.
    This is just my initial thinking and I am not in the camp of a blockbuster but if you have been reading my posts this week I feel we will get something from this because the setup is different this time around. With all of that said I am giving this storm a 2 right now meaning MODERATE Snowfall in the order of 4-10 inches. Any slight shift east or west will make a difference and this will probably needed to be changed as we get closer.

  3. retrac says:

    they’ll have a handle on this in the next 24hrs I bet.

  4. JimmyJames says:

    My initial Snow Index for the Sunday Monday storm. I am not in the camp of a blockbuster but if you been reading my posts this week I feel we will see something from this. With all of this said I am giving the storm a 2 meaning MODERATE snowfall of 4-10 inches. Any slight shifts east or west will make a huge difference and this will probably change as we get closer.

  5. JimmyJames says:

    Sorry for the double post everyone. I did not see it at first and thought the refresh kicked in before the post went through.

    1. philip says:

      Actually Jimmy, you are lucky. When at times that I don’t see my posts…they never show up and I have to try posting again.

  6. Old Salty says:

    JJ curious as to why you are not thinking blockbuster? Do you think it will be a little bit too far off shore? It just won’t bomb out like forecasted? Again, just curious.

    Many thanks

  7. retrac says:

    if it boms like that, they’ll likely be lots of front end (overrunning) snow. so even if is does move fast, you can still get a lot of snow

  8. Old Salty says:

    AccuWeather is about to go out on a limb.

    Here is what was on my facbook page:

    Story update coming soon on http://www.accuweather.com/ for the South and mid-Atlantic Coast snowstorm/New England BLIZZARD!

  9. rightstuff says:

    I know people here take AW with a grain of salt but on their main page they have an alert saying this storm is going waaaaay south…complete miss.

  10. Old Salty says:

    Rightstuff,

    I didn’t see that. Not on their main page that I loaded.

  11. rightstuff says:

    I should say complete miss…just looking at the map they have…I am not good like you all on here.

  12. rightstuff says:

    Old Salty,

    Right. I just went back and it’s gone. I swear it was there. This is the closest I could find:

    http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/43366/christmas-snowstorm-threat-com.asp

  13. JimmyJames says:

    Old Salty I have seen this so many times when something looks like a snowlovers dream and ends up being a fish storm or a much weaker storm. Another reason I am not in the camp of a blockbuster is the models are not all in agreement yet on a solution but I think we will see snow from this just because the setup is different than the last time with NAO not as negative.

  14. Scott says:

    repost from the last blog

    if this storm does hit, we also need to consider the snow ratio’s, which could be higher than 10-1. suppost to be in the mid to upper 20′s throughout the storm, which would put the snow ratios at 15-1 to 20-1.

  15. Old Salty says:

    rightstuff,

    OK, that link refers to the fact that previously they thought that the MidWest would
    receive a substantial snowfall as the system tracked East. Now they know the system
    is tracking much farther South.

    All it means is that the system will be MORE LOADED as it drops to the Gulf loads up
    with Gulf moisture that bombs off of the East Coast picking up more Atlantic moisture.

    Unless it tracks too far off shore, we look to be in for it.

  16. rightstuff says:

    Ah, thanks for the clarification. I’m learning. :)

  17. Old Salty says:

    JJ,

    Fair enough, however, I think the ingredients are here this time and it “looks” to be coming together. Track, track and tack again! Lol

  18. Hadi says:

    here is the HPC write up:

    ACROSS THE EAST…MODEL SPREAD HAS SLOWLY NARROWED CONCERNING THE
    TRACK AND OTHER DETAILS CONCERNING A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM
    AFFECTING THE EAST COAST DAYS 3-4. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FASTER
    AND EASTWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW SUN-MON…WHILE THE GFS HAS
    TRENDED FASTER AND WESTWARD…WITH THE 06Z GFS REPRESENTING A
    CONSENSUS OF 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS AND NEARLY OVERLAPS THE GLOBAL
    ENSEMBLE MEANS. MEANWHILE…THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN ARE
    SUFFICIENTLY FAR OUT TO SEA TO HAVE ONLY MINIMAL IMPACTS OVER
    LAND. GIVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT TRENDS OF THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL
    SUITES AND THAT THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE HAS NARROWED TO ROUGHLY
    INCLUDE JUST THESE MODELS IF WE CONSIDER THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS
    WELL…THE UPDATED PRESSURES/FRONTS WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE
    06Z GFS. THIS PATH CLIPS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA/NEW
    JERSEY WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST…BUT HITS COASTAL
    NEW ENGLAND WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. GIVEN
    THAT ONLY A SMALL SHIFT IN THE EXACT TRACK WILL HAVE PROFOUND
    INFLUENCES ALONG THE EAST COAST…AND THAT PORTIONS OF THE
    EVOLVING UPSTREAM CONDITIONS ARE ONLY NOW ENTERING THE MORE
    DENSELY POPULATED OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK…WE WILL LIKELY SEE A
    LARGE REDUCTION IN THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 MODEL
    CYCLES…BEGINNING WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. UNTIL THEN…RECOMMEND
    CONSIDERING A RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES THAT INCLUDES THE 00Z ECMWF
    ON THE STRONG/WESTERN EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE…AND THE 00Z GFS ON
    THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE.

  19. Old Salty says:

    Hadi,
    I saw this earlier. I believe that it was posted at 1:58AM.

  20. Hadi says:

    that was a 9 AM update

  21. retrac says:

    anyone have a lasso for that 84hr. NAM run? Gonna need it.

  22. JimmyJames says:

    Old Salty your right about the track. As I always say in real estate its location location location and in weather its track track track. I have a feeling that 2 I issued is going to change one way or another and if everything should come together 3s and maybe 4s might be needed.

  23. manowx says:

    Asorm coming much as Barry was skeptical of model changes during the last event , ne and Todd waffled like a pancake. It appears the models have a handle on this storm so no suprises are anticipated

  24. manowx says:

    it looks like last feb’s busted forecast boundary layer too mild!

  25. Old Salty says:

    Wow!

    That NAM looks sick. It is way out there and mighty WEAK to boot. Here we go again! Which model, IF ANY, has the correct solution here.

    I guess we are now waiting for the 12Z Euro. Should be fun!

    1. tj says:

      can you post the link?

  26. Bozzs says:

    From NWS Gray maine just released:

    VERY INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN BEING INDICATED BY THE MODELS FOR
    SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
    AGREEMENT AND WHILE THINGS WILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN FOR A FEW MORE
    DAYS…THE SIGNAL FOR A STRONG STORM IS APPARENT ENOUGH TO SAY
    THAT A MAJOR STORM WILL DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST.
    THE ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST OF THE MODELS WITH REGARD TO NORTHERN
    NEW ENGLAND. IT BEGINS TO BOMB A SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA
    COAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AS SUNDAY PROGRESSES THE LOW MOVES
    NORTH PASSING JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. IF
    THIS SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY…THEN WE WOULD CERTAINLY BE LOOKING
    AT WARNING CRITERIA SNOW ALONG AT LEAST THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
    MAINE. THE ECMWF THEN TAKES THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND
    INTO NOVA SCOTIA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WOULD GENERATE QUITE
    A BIT OF QPF AND KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS MAINE THROUGHOUT
    THE ENTIRE EVENT. WHILE NOT READY TO BITE ON THIS SOLUTION JUST
    YET…IT CERTAINLY NEEDS TO BE WATCHED AND FURTHER ANALYZED OVER
    THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT COULD BE A MAJOR EVENT.– End Changed Discussion —

  27. retrac says:

    Margusity has pretty good post. Explains the need for “triple Phasing” he’s concerned about the trough axis setting up too far east for “big cities”.

  28. manowx says:

    since yesterday’s runs the trend is more west if anything. There will be precip issues for the Boston area

  29. manowx says:

    This looks more and more like last february’s busted snowstorm

  30. manowx says:

    There’s no hp to the north any low level cold gets scoured models are not picking up on this BUST

    1. RexRyan says:

      disagree, there is high pressure sitting in southern canada which will drain cold air down. So cold air is not the issue. Now if the track hugs the coast, of course there may be mixing, but if it stays offhore, this is all snow

  31. Old Salty says:

    This morning’s 12Z 84 hour NAM:

    I just don’t get why the NAM is not on board with a bomb?????? We’ll see with subsequent runs.

    1. Hadi says:

      Old Salty the NAM at 84 is not a great measure at phasing storms. I think the GFS and EURO will be the ones to watch right now

  32. manowx says:

    What a turkey!

  33. Uncover says:

    I think we should wait on the NAM….it’s well out of range right now. Let’s talk about the NAM on Saturday.

  34. Scott says:

    NAM is in it’s long range with the storm, and not as accurate.

  35. retrac says:

    NAM looks just like last week

  36. tj says:

    didnt Barry mention that the NAM was not realiable past 36hrs.

  37. Scott says:

    The 12z GFS will be important, should be out within a hour

  38. retrac says:

    sorry Scott but that’s what we thought last week too and NAM ended up verifying

  39. Old Salty says:

    OF course we need to wait, but it troubles me that it hasn’t picked up on this.
    Remember, it was the NAM that was ultimately on target with the last storm.

    1. Uncover says:

      Agreed…But, let’s see how the NAM does in the next day or so. QPF started increasing within 48 hrs on this last event. It was basically nonexistent this far out.

  40. Scott says:

    The NAM didnt show the cape getting a foot of snow this far out with the last storm.
    Give it a few more runs.

  41. tj says:

    Just like everything else in New England just give it a minute and it will change.

  42. rightstuff says:

    Any wiord on the snow expected today? Heard a final band was coming (2 inches or so) and would end by noon…nothing…almost sunny in Woburn/Lexington. Not sure if it’s still coming or not?

    1. RexRyan says:

      snow is over….flurries possible for next couple of hours, but too warm out, nothing sticks……this even is officially over

  43. RexRyan says:

    not worried about the NAM whatsover……it’s not good 4 days out

  44. Fall River John says:

    NWS in Grey placed storm just inside the benchmark…how far inside the benchmark before we need to think about a rain/snow line???

  45. RMB says:

    Hey guys, i wanted to chime in on this whole Nam thing, Retrac, you are correct, the Nam was right about this Storm, however if i recall it did not start showing this storm backing in until Sat afternoon, that is when the Mets started to sweat a little bit, This strom is way out of range right now, lets talk about the Nam Sat night and then maybe we can count on it, toooo early to look at the model!!! Only Thursday

  46. retrac says:

    NAM 84 does have a high in the right place. I think that’s the first I’ve seen that. That’s a positive.

    Here ya Scott/RMB..I just have a trend bias in my thinking until a trend is broken. might be this one?

  47. Fall River John says:

    I’m sleeping…I meant Gray

  48. Longshot says:

    Models still having problems getting a handle obviously so I would say all 3 tracks are alive and well at this point. If we all could take a moment of intellectual honesty, the storm is somewhere between serious for NE and OTS.

    I like getting one and only one biggie for the season. I am a long way from saying this is it. I see better post New Year’s possibilities in terms of number of potential storms. And by the way I use the Longshot model. It is 100% accurate at all times.

  49. retrac says:

    what in the worl is that at GFS 66 over Nantuckett? The suspense!

  50. Scott says:

    East with the latest GFS:(

  51. Merlin says:

    Still think Boston will see 30 inches!

  52. retrac says:

    getting the exact same feeling as last week. same timeframe out too.

    I’m lovin’ that high pressure though. Nice NE fetch. It just needs to shift east (the high) a hair more to get this thing west by another 50-75 miles.

  53. RexRyan says:

    GFS is a big dud, a miss with the cape getting 3-6 tops…..will EURO reign supreme?

  54. metking says:

    Dont sleep on the NAM, we are entering its sweet spot

  55. Steve-O says:

    gfs is typical for its waffling at the 84 hr mark…i suspect it won’t be its final solution one way or the other.

  56. retrac says:

    Merlin, you better whip up some sorcery or something for that to happen. What do you have in that hat for us?

    1. Merlin says:

      Just a guess based on all the information you folks have provided retrac! I will however blow my snow horn in case!

  57. Scott says:

    The GFS has had a hard time with this storm, flip flopping every day. However, the EURO hasn’t flip flopped once, so i would keep sticking with the EURO.

  58. Uncover says:

    GFS is not as great as what it was this morning, but let’s take a step back and look at the big picture. There is a monster storm with 50-100 miles of benchmark on basically all the models…we will nail down more precise track by Saturday or even Sunday.

    1. RexRyan says:

      not true at all…….a lot of models have this well out to sea (CCM, DGEX, NAM, UKIE). Only EURO, and GFS, and GFS has just swung well east

      1. Uncover says:

        My point is that they are all not that far off when you consider how far away we are and we should really not be looking at one model’s run and think the snow is off.

  59. metking says:

    Euro has been an outlier since day one…and the euro has missed plenty of times. Go with the majority here and look for a softer and more easterly solution from the euro beginning today

  60. JimmyJames says:

    I am not changing my thinking from earlier. I think will see a MODERATE snowfall.

  61. retrac says:

    Euro missed on the last one too. It eventually came around to the GFS/NAM solution. GFS/NAM are my favorite horses at the moment.

  62. metking says:

    In retracs camp here, don’t see this materializing. Euro is far from a safe bet folks! The other models are there for a reason and its about phasing

  63. philip says:

    Jimmy, just curious…do you have any snow in your backyard from this current event to enjoy for Christmas Day? In mine it is nice and festive looking now, far from the brown leaves of just a couple days ago.

    Jimmy, stick to your guns for now. There is time aplenty to update your IMPACT one way or the other. :-)

  64. Scott says:

    heres the rundown at the moment from Joe Lundburg, who knows what he’s talking about. all about how quickly the streams phase will decide our storm.

    http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/lundberg/story/43434/weekend-storm-a-1.asp

  65. joejoycewbz says:

    Midday runs are certainly not instilling much confidence in this storm…Looking at GFS ensembles…very few if any show a sizeable snowstorm! Nam, Canadian, and Now GFS with father offshore solutions. Not really buying much of this.
    I believe GFS will trend west again. 12Z Euro will be fun to watch. Anything outside of 48 hours is suspect. Not giving up!

  66. philip says:

    Thanks for the update Joe…keep us posted as always! :-)

  67. Scott says:

    thanks Joe for update.
    the other 12z runs will be very important, especially the EURO!

  68. retrac says:

    hey gang….just trying to lighten up here for fun…..check out GFS 264. Is that one of the weirdest setups you’ve ever seen. A Low off Hateras pumping big time QPF all the way up here. I know it’s about flow but my God, we’re all here squabbling over 25 miles off Cape Cod either way making a difference and GFS 264 has a storm 1000 miles away being close enough. Crazy

  69. snowyman says:

    Joe do you think most other models will flip to the Euro solution?

  70. philip says:

    Is it safe to assume now that regardless how this storm affects us that it will be a VERY progressive system that moves in and out for the most part from noon Sunday-noon Monday?

  71. alisonarod says:

    The stronger, westward EURO will win. It has been ridiculously consistent and this scenario is very plausible given the dynamics in place.

  72. Scott says:

    has this storm even entered the U.S yet? usually models get a better handle on things when the storm is on land.

  73. Ryan In CT says:

    Scott, it is centered over AZ/NM right now.

  74. Scott says:

    oh ok. we still got the blocking, and the question of when the streams phase, thats not easy for a computer to figure out. give it till Saturday.

  75. Curious says:

    I am curious as to why many people on this blog are rooting for a monster storm? Sure, as weather enthusiasts, they are wonderful to study, but undoubtedly, if we do get 30 inches, as some have suggested, people will die. Power will be lost. My basement will be flooded. Elderly will suffer. Millions of our tax dollars will have to be spent clearing roads, I could go on and on. I come to this blog regularly in hopes of getting the news that I did last weekend and that the storm goes out to sea. That way I’ll be able to go to work on Monday and support my family.

    1. Merlin says:

      These folks have the love of weather as a common thread and since anyone can predict a sunny day a storm is much more interesting and exciting. No one wants to see all the bad things you have mentioned to ever to happen that is for sure. Be well and have a Merry Christmas

  76. RexRyan says:

    Canadian also OTS. Looks like everyone against the EURO. I personally see the EURO folding. Was not good with the last storm and given the consistency with all other models, I don’t see how the EURO can win this battle. If a few models were on board with the EURO that is one thing, but this is a solo act by the EURO and frankly, will bow down to it, if it’s right. But like I said, I expect an 100 mille jog east with the 12Z Euro

  77. Lawrencewx says:

    Here we go again!! LOL
    Where oh where will this “monster” storm go??
    Thanks JJ for the quick update!!

  78. JimmyJames says:

    Philip there is a little bit of snow but not much. II can’t wait to see what the new run of the EURO says when it comes out around 2pm. Will it stay the same or will it shift eastward. I was never buying a blockbuster storm but my gut has been wrong before.

  79. metking says:

    Amen rex. This is almost a no brainer for me and think it will be a non-story in twenty four hours. So take solace in that Curious. Then again, I’ve been wrong before as well

  80. metking says:

    hey jj, get ready for a revision to that INDEX of yours. 0 will look good after the next euro run…just feel super confident on this

  81. RexRyan says:

    Todd Gutners headline for his last blog is “One last burst” I think we are nearing where we need a headline of “One last bust” This is not shot at any meteo’s, just stating this storm has even more bust potential than last, which I didn’t think was possible. I will be back shortly, need to go videotape some feet……

  82. retrac says:

    that feet comment is just the best Rex

  83. philip says:

    JC Monahan has this scenario as of this noon broadcast.

    MOST LIKELY: Cape Ann to Boston and Cape Cod
    POSSIBLE: Mertowest to Wocester
    LEAST LIKELY: Worcester and Beyond

    1. philip says:

      Sorry for misspellings.

      POSSIBLE: Metrowest to Worcester

  84. rightstuff says:

    Rex,

    Is that why you let Woodhead go? His feet too small for you? :)

    1. RexRyan says:

      when it came down to it, woodhead had some flaws on his right foot, and frankly that was the point where I decided to cut him. Guy had a great left foot, but it’s the combination of them both that is key to being on the NYJ

  85. Hadi says:

    i think the NWS summs up the issues coming up with this statement…

    CAUTION IS ADVISED IN LITERAL MODEL INTERPRETATION AT THIS
    POINT…AS WE ARE STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY FROM THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.
    THE MODEL ITERATIONS EACH RUN WILL LIKELY CHANGE CONSIDERABLY OVER
    THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN THE TYPICAL PHASING PROBLEMS THE
    OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE REGARDING SPLIT JET STREAM PATTERNS. STAY
    TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND.

  86. metking says:

    This was a bust from the gates. No eastcoast snow storm has ever verified six days in advance. This afternoon we will see what I suspect many felt was inevitable…a much weaker,flatter storm

  87. Longshot says:

    The answer to this storm was in place the second Henry M posted his potential snow map showing us getting 6+”. At that point, the storm decided to take a hard right. When it comes to snow storms the “way-in-advance Henry model” is near perfect. 0 out of 10,000.

    Snow lovers have one hope left. Henry announces a complete miss.

  88. JimmyJames says:

    When Henry says its going to happen it never does. He is entertaining to watch and one day Henry might get one right.

  89. retrac says:

    Welcome to my camp Longshot

  90. haterain says:

    The problem is everyone starts speculating too early. No one knows what the weather is going to do a week in advance. TV mets should get rid of the 7 day forecast because now everyone wants to know. This was never meant to be big storm but everyone heard big storm and went crazy. Again, I like Topkatt’s approach wait and then comment when it makes sense.

  91. RMB says:

    I wanted to comment on something, all this talk models and it’s flopping back and fourth… We all agree that the Euro has been consistant on this Low for a few days now??? Well i am no met, however a little commonsense would tell me if i had to morgage my house right now on this event, wouldn’t you go with a model that HAS A VERY GOOD TRACK RECORD, OR MODELS THAT SEEM TO FLOP BACK AND FOURTH!!! Anyway i would say if the Euro holds steady as A expert (not that i am would choose the one that has stayed faithful for a while.. Anyone disagree?????????????????

  92. Ron says:

    Paul Kocin now backing off on storm

  93. retrac says:

    He is entertaining and I do like him. He’s just a bloody curse. Would never go to a casino with him.

  94. metking says:

    Very true, there is no sense looking at models five six days in advance in these scenarios. I think its very clear that piece of energy to the west will kick this thing well out to sea rather than being absorbed by a ‘monster’ at two that will become clear

  95. Ryan In CT says:

    Euro should be spitting out data very soon if not already running right now.

  96. jlind says:

    What I don’t get is so many meteo’s stayed with the EURO when all models were OTS. That is what I don’t quite understand. Without even having a great understanding of weather, I know when 95% of models say one thing and 5% say something else, I am taking the 95% ever time, regardless if that 5% has faired well in the past. Keep in mind the EURO failed miserably with the last storm. GFS led the way…

  97. retrac says:

    I think they like the physics better jlind. I hear you though.

    1. jlind says:

      take away all the science and pattern, etc…….this thing had not chance with 95% of models OTS. I still think the cape and extreme eastern area’s can get snow, but none of this 1 to 2 feet talk thats been thrown around by many. JJ, you layed out the possibilities, but did not predict, which I respect.

  98. Dave H says:

    I believe the seven-day forecast is at the request of news producers because they insist people want it even though the mets have said many times that forecast accuracy drops dramatically beyond 48 hours.

  99. Willy13 says:

    The GFS did no such thing with the last storm. Was doing the same thing as this one, flopping back and forth. Euro had the OTS solution all along…..

    1. jlind says:

      GFS did waffle, but so did the EURO big time. GFS was best on the last storm.

  100. Adam says:

    where is joe joyce ? he just called for two feet?

  101. JimmyJames says:

    RMB I agree with you and now I want to see what the EURO says on this latest run. These models are trying to forecast a storm that has not even formed on the east coast. I am sticking with my thinking right now of a MODERATE snowfall. If it does shift east then we have to look is this the start of a trend.

    1. RexRyan says:

      Jimmy James, EURO already ran and is farther east, barely grazing coastal new england with light, moderate at best snows

  102. Scott says:

    Last thursday at this time, all the models were showing a major storm for the weekend and the next day, they all changed drastically. so whatever the models are showing now most Likely will trend westward.

  103. Old Salty says:

    For what it is worth, the 12Z UKMET and GEM take this thing WELL OTS!!!

    1. Scott says:

      Neither of those models verified this far out with the last storm.

  104. Hadi says:

    The EURO is a SNE special as well at Maine, will post link as soon as I can. Not much for anyone south of New England

  105. Hadi says:

    I tried to post a link but its not allowing me, it from the Plymouth state weather sire? weird

  106. joejoycewbz says:

    Sorry Adam. I did not call for two feet. Please do not put words in my mouth. You must have trouble hearing or reading. Good Luck with that.
    I have not made any sort of call on this storm yet. 12z Euro has shifted east now. Most models are now showing a miss.. The Euro with a quick graze of Snow Sunday Night and early Monday. I expect a shift back to west at some point..but right now it is not looking good is it? Just have to wait this out and see how the models handle the phasing.

    1. retrac says:

      Good for you Joe!

    2. RexRyan says:

      Joe you never did say that. Don’t listen to the one or 2 people that want to cause a stir. You have been upfront with the possibilities. We all appreciate that. Your blogs are the best, along with Barry. Keep up the good work and look forward to your future blogs on this storm (if you are working between now and Sunday) I will say I am bothered by the EURO though. I do hope we see a westward trend, but all models have a miss, which makes me believe it’s a miss at this point

    3. Hadi says:

      Joe when I look at the EURO is sure shows the Cape and coastal areas getting a pretty decent shot of snow, am I reading something wrong?

      Thanks

  107. Scott says:

    Still plenty of time for these models to shift westward, currently 3-4 days out. If this were saturday afternoon, then there would be a cause for concern for snowlovers.

  108. Charlie says:

    We got the whit Christmas at least

  109. metking says:

    Alas an end to the needless hype…let’s put this one to rest and save the chatter for the next time around…see y’all in late january bc I think the pattern will be warm and calm for weeks

  110. JimmyJames says:

    Now what I want to see is this the start of a trend or will another shift happen?

  111. Old Salty says:

    Am I missing something? I don’t see the Euro as a Miss????
    Hadi, I tried posting a link and it wouldn’t go either…waiting for that other sire to have it.

  112. Hadi says:

    metking take a look at the EURO and tell me what you think? it does not show a miss for the Cape/immediate coastal areas and up in Maine.

    1. RexRyan says:

      not a miss, but glancing blow, as Joe mentioned. Not a big storm by any means right now though.

  113. Jeffrey Silverberg says:

    Henry Margusity Fan Club New Euro looks liek a blizzard in New England, snow in the Carolina’s and snow along the coast through Long Island. If the storm comes west by only 50-100 miles, it’s a much different story up the I-95 corridor. Right now, I leaving the snow map alone. No reason to make major changes.

    1. retrac says:

      Love H.M.

      Problem is though he’s like Clark Griswald. I don’t want him anywhere near my storm

  114. manowx says:

    White xmas is melting away down to 1.5 inches. Started with 2.0 this morn.

  115. Scott says:

    Your right the EURO still has a behemoth. I looked ahead… Had a lake cutter in the works:(

  116. Longshot says:

    Models seem to compensate by going one direction (east) too far and then often re-compensate by shifting back in the opposite direction. not sure this will happen here, but i have seen it many times before.

  117. Scott says:

    has a pressure of 966mb, that’s one hell of a storm, but has sped up

  118. Old Salty says:

    12 Euro Panels

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_panel.php?mod=ecmwf&run=12&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en

    Looks to me that it will pass NEAR the benchmark, perhaps just East of it.

    Eastern NE looks to be in the heavy snow.

    What am I missing here?

    1. Hadi says:

      Old Salty you are not missing anything…

  119. Storm says:

    Euro still show SE New England getting blasted

  120. Storm says:

    Right across the sweet spot!! Ya !!!

  121. Scott says:

    Well that’s a sigh of relief. It’s Thursday afternoon, the storm is Sunday night- Monday, much will change. As with the last storm.

  122. Storm says:

    Storm with that low pressure got o slow down and stall maybe loop. They are just famous for it. Models wont pick that up to easilyu. They are seeing the phasing with the storm that strong

    1. retrac says:

      c’mon Storm, let’s not get greedy now or you’ll spook the whole thing

  123. Ryan In CT says:

    Agreed Hadi and Old Salty, about that not being a miss. If a 996mb materialized off the cost like that, anything remotely near it would be dealing with snow and wind. That is a seriously dangerous storm if it actually came to fruition.

    1. Scott says:

      That would be 966mb:) unless you made a typo. But yea, can be dangerous with that kind of a storm.

      1. Ryan In CT says:

        Yes, definitely a typo. I meant 966mb.

  124. Charlie says:

    I believe that this is a pattern for the winter, below average snowfall well north and west, and above normal snow inside 128 down to providence eastward, even looking way out, there all trending south and east, very weird, a white Christmas for everyone with 50-75 miles of coast, brown north and west of worcester

  125. Storm says:

    If anything they will trend slightly westward

  126. Old Salty says:

    that’s interesting. The link indicates that the page no longer exists?? hmmmm

  127. Bill says:

    this is getting ridiculous with joe joyce,hes putting two feet on his blogs? i think wbz should move him along to the next victim. what is joe going to call for next? the national gaurd?

  128. Old Salty says:

    Bill,

    Joe NEVER said such a thing. You actually have to READ what he has posted.
    He has been up front all the way!!

  129. Storm says:

    Bill,

    Joe never said that!! I agree with Old Salty read what he says before you open your blog

  130. retrac says:

    Just ignore Bill. He’s like a crazy old aunt sitting in the corner during Christmas

    We need Hadi to bounce this guy outta here.

  131. Willy13 says:

    Today’s 12z Euro has a 964 mb low south of the cape at 70 deg long 12z Monday. Don’t think we can get a better setup than that if it verifies…….

  132. Hadi says:

    he he, I do no think I have that much power::)

  133. Storm says:

    Hadi, Take care of Homer’s Dad “He’s not wearing any pants” LOL

  134. JimmyJames says:

    Were probably not going to now what this storm system is going to do until Saturday and maybe a little later than that. These low pressure systems seem to have minds of their own and 25-50 will make a HUGE difference. Right now folks in the eastern part of Southern New England look to get the most with amounts dropping the further west you live in Southern New England. Again we shift that low back to the west 25-50 miles all of Southern New England could get in on the snow party.

  135. Eric says:

    Based on the latest euro, are we talking about a mix inside 495

  136. Joe2 says:

    i agree joe joyce over does it,why mention 2 feet in the blog if your unsure? he does it to keep you checking his blogs all week,theres no flies on him.

  137. Old Salty says:

    From the HPC:

    IT REMAINS PREMATURE TO PICK A SPECIFIC DETERMINISTIC
    SOLUTION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION
    HAS ONLY RECENTLY ENTERED THE MORE DENSELY POPULATED OBSERVATIONAL
    NETWORK…AND THUS IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE ANOTHER 1 OR 2 MODEL RUNS
    AT LEAST TO RESOLVE THE MULTIPLE STREAM INTERACTIONS WHICH IS
    CRUCIAL TO A SUCCESSFUL FORECAST IN THIS SHORTWAVE PATTERN.
    THUS…THE FINAL PRESSURES/FRONTS WERE ONLY NUDGED ABOUT MIDWAY
    BETWEEN THE 06-12Z GFS…WHICH CREDITS THE NEW CONSENSUS FOR A
    FASTER SOLUTION WHILE ALSO MAINTAINING CONTINUITY AS THE PRECISE
    TRACK FORECAST STILL CONTAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY

  138. Old Salty says:

    Joe2,

    You haven’t a clue as to what Joe Joyce was saying. Please read it carefully.

  139. retrac says:

    oh man, that’s a reach Joe2. Let’s cut these guys some slack for crying out loud. Everyone who checks this blog knows what they’re siging up for. What, do you want a warning label on it like everything else in life. Not to mention, they have to be so Nuanced on TV, it drives me nuts. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with them sharing moment thoughts in a small community like this. You want sterility, go somewhere else

  140. manowx says:

    Looks like rain will be our salvation along the coast. Springtime comes early with storm passage Time to sing the party’s over

    1. Hadi says:

      Manows you never stop with winter being over do you::))

  141. Kenny says:

    can joe joyce give us his lastest thinking? thanks joe we enjoy your hard work

  142. jpmh says:

    I’ve been reading this blog for the past two years and find it endlessly fascinating. For the haters you can call those of us who love weather whatever you want. Your opinion means nothing. For the vast majority of you please keep posting! Your insight, expertise and enthusiasm (not always in that order) make each and every storm a true experience. Loving the EURO. PRAY FOR SNOW!

  143. manowx says:

    This storm could turn out like the one I recall from the mid 1960s. A sleety, snowy, rainy mix. it was tremendously windy. Pappi would not let me go outside!

  144. markisstorm45athome says:

    well i do love snow so dont get me wrong but we literally never get big snowstorms in all of sne anymore only moderate to light moderate being 14 in or less and light under 6 it just doesnt happen and i do notice that everytime the computers have predicted a big snowstorm here people get excited for no reason! because the trend over the years has been a bust over 90% of the time!! unless its a big rain maker then its dead on of course! i would love to hear from that cat baileyman on this one he was actually 1 if not the only one right on this last storm ! i went back several days to read the blogs on this last storm and that cat was pretty dam near perfect. Got a feeling he is barry b or topkatt with an alias or something!
    so where are you baileyman what you say is going to happen with this next event??

  145. manowx says:

    I can’t help it if I hate snow and cold. Such is the situation when one is old. A rhyme

  146. Mazza says:

    I see no shift to the east with the EURO

  147. manowx says:

    great mazza I’m praying for rain

  148. metking says:

    Atleast we have consensus on a super-quick moving system…I think that plays right into a more easterly solution which I think the euro is stubbornly coming around too. Hadi, you’re right as it stands now euro doesn’t have a total miss but it has in fact grown more consistent on progression. No doubt it still has a BOMB out there but at thay speed and the easterly trend it is a six to eight inch ceiling. It’ll be much much faster than a typical noreaster if this were to verify- an overnight special

  149. Ted says:

    where do we stand wiith this storm as of now?

  150. Dave H says:

    Joe Joyce was stating IF it were to occur the way it looks TODAY(and that meant by way of the 00 Euro run) then it WOULD mean 1-2 feet. He didn’t say it WILL occur. In fact he clarified further that he is not saying it will.
    Key words….IF and WOULD.

    1. jack says:

      Thank you. Many are saying the SAME thing. “IF”!

  151. hcarool says:

    Mazza which euro are you looking at?

  152. Mazza says:

    Sorry i ment to the West

  153. Eric says:

    I want a bigtime snowstorm (foot plus) to happen here inside 128 but I gotta feeling if this euro is correct we’re looking at mostly mix in the boston vicinity. We rarely get the all snow scenario in these nor’easters

  154. Old Salty says:

    Eric,

    IF 12z Euro “were” to verify, NO MIX or RAIN in Boston Area, including right on the coast.

  155. Old Salty says:

    Current AccuWeather Thinking…..

  156. JMA says:

    I see a moderate to heavy snowfall Boston South and East. Also moderate to marginally heavy in the east facing coastal communities north of Boston. 128-495 a moderate snowfall. West of 495 to ORH a light -moderate snowfall then a sharp cutoff to very light snowfall west of ORH towards the CT River Valley. Berkshires may end up with nothing. All Early. We will see.

  157. philip says:

    Hot off the press from the CPC today calls for well above normal temps and precip for the northern tier of states from midweek next week through the first few days of January. My guess is if this ever verifies, “whatever” we get late this weekend, will NOT be around for very long. :-(

  158. Scott says:

    18z NAM coming out, that should be interesting

  159. Old Salty says:

    A beef….

    Why doe the 2:38 PM NWS forecast discussion reference 0Z model runs, when
    ALL of the 12z runs are available. I just don’t get it. Are these guys living in the past?

  160. Scott says:

    yea philip, the 12z EURO got a lake cutter around the new year. so it seems we get nailed, then it melts within a week, thats winter in New England…

  161. Scott says:

    anyone notice a slight change in the 18z NAM at 66 hour

  162. philip says:

    Snow melted around Boston pretty good this afternoon. I just hope there is some left around for Christmas morning. I haven’t checked the latest on tomorrow’s temps yet, but I imagine the low-mid 30’s at least…

  163. tjammer says:

    I have been following this blog for a couple of years and I have to admit it is quite addictive… My productivity level at work definitely goes down a couple of notches when that potential big storm shows up in the models. Kudos to all of you pseudo-mets who can read and analyse the models and keep the rest of us up to date on the possibilities, for better or worse.

  164. Charlie says:

    The problem is that 50 million people live within 50 miles of the coast from Boston to DC, and within 50 miles of the coast during snowstorms usually, not always but much more of the time it will mix or rain, it’s been like that for a long time, thats why Boston on average gets 40 inches per year and Worcester get 60 inches per yr, there’s been alot of winters that we won’t have all the big snowstorms be all snow, blame it on the ocean

  165. JimmyJames says:

    I am not worried about next week until we see with this low pressure system for late in the weekend is going to do. I am not surprised of an inside runner for late next week because as I said yesterday sometimes when you get a big enough storm that changes that pattern up a bit.

  166. Scott says:

    nope 18z NAM is way out, way out, and gone!

  167. spaniel says:

    So far this season storms have either cut up to the west or gone out to far to effect us. Only this storm has because it backed in on us. I predict that the weekend storm will produce some light snows in SE sections but nothing more than that. Next week at this time we shall start with our January warm up!!! Right on cue to open the new year and as was expected my some long ranger forecasters that I follow.

  168. ed says:

    latest runs are fishing

  169. steveray2 says:

    ed stop the BS !! the 18z run is not out yet!!! nice try…go bother another log with your nonsense

  170. Scott says:

    the 18z runs wont differ much from the 12z runs, the 00z runs would be the most likely runs to have a change if any.

  171. steveray2 says:

    with all do disrespect accu weather is horrible it is never on with big snow events! waste of blog

  172. Old Salty says:

    18Z NAM has been out for awhile now and Ed is correct. NAM shows the bulks of the storm precipitating on the fishes!!

  173. philip says:

    The latest (3:40 pm) NWS forecast for the Boston area does not look very promising for big snow lovers.

  174. spaniel says:

    18z NAM is out and gives us light snow with the big storm well off shore. I don’t think this is a big year for sne. If the La Nina can weaken some then maybe the second half of winter will be more interesting for snowstorms. For now I will be dreaming of a white Christmas. The one inch of snow I received has all but melted.

    1. Charlie says:

      I’m sorry, we got a ton of snow here in se mass and a white Christmas, some spot r way above snowfall for the yr and some r way below normal so far, here in N.Attleboro we r up to 5.8 inches and that’s average for Dec, so we r on course here for a average to slightly above average fir the yr :)

  175. spaniel says:

    Check out the 6-10 & 8-14 day temps. Where is winter gone?

  176. Scott says:

    Matt Noyes is more confidence with this storm than the last storm at this time, and he nailed the last storm for the most part. he says atleast some snow is likely, heavy snow and wind is possible.

  177. ed says:

    Storm offshore period of light for boston area

  178. ron says:

    paul kocin backing way of on storm says he is embarrased

  179. Scott says:

    i am not throwing in the towel until the EURO takes it out to sea

  180. Longshot says:

    Scott, thanks for the post. I have some faith in Matt. Seems to know what he is talking about.

  181. JimmyJames says:

    How about some links to what Paul Kocin is saying. Scott I am with you and I won’t throw the towel in just yet. I’ll wait until Saturday.

  182. Old Salty says:

    Where can we see Paul Kocin? Thanks

  183. Zipperhead says:

    Run, do you have a bit of man love for Paul Kocin?

  184. philip says:

    The latest WBZ 7-day now has a very small window for snow and a BIG “4-2” temp for next Thursday. It looks like the January thaw is starting up early. Based on what the latest CPC shows, wouldn’t be shocked to see a BIG “5-0” or higher soon.

  185. JimmyJames says:

    Philip I did not think the thaw was going to start until the second week of January when I gave my winter outlook.

    1. philip says:

      Jimmy…same with my outlook as well. We will see.

  186. Paul52 says:

    I measured only an additional 0.3 inch of snow earlier today here in Pepperell; bringing the season here to 1.9 inch! And so it goes with the “snow drought” up here. Again, I do not have good feelings about the upcoming storm, especially up here. Of course the models are only models and only a human forecaster can really give a forecast; but unless most of the models come into line soon with a westward trend I cannot be optimistic as a lover of snow storms. Anyway, there is barely an inch of snow on the ground here as the clouds and dim sunshine helped to preserve what little snow there is here!

  187. Longshot says:

    Bouchard: non-committal. hinted at it getting weaker and more OTS.

  188. manowx says:

    Marblehead snow cover is 1.3 inches on the average Temps will go above melting tomorrow. White xmas is surely nixed!

  189. Longshot says:

    Todd during teaser: starts Sunday afternoon; more OTS; shore, Cape and Islands might get more than any other area.

  190. Brian Philcrantz says:

    How come as soon as on set of models comes it and the storm is a a little more west everyone writes it off right away and visa versa if it was out to see all along and it moves west a little bit every jumps on the band wagon for a strom

    1. Longshot says:

      It’s called human nature.

  191. Mark 5 says:

    Gutner doing everything he can to keep us interested,youl need a fishing rod if you want to see this storm

  192. timemchoy says:

    good news the 18z gfs is out and its slightly more west again closer to shore but am i reading that right is it really 957 millibars when 90 hrs east of boston??????!!!????

  193. ted says:

    this blog will be shutting down jan 1st,some people have ruined it for the rest. this is what i heard in a tweet fron terry elision

  194. JAmbrose says:

    This storm is going ots !!! similar setup as the last storm … difference is this one will not back up as did the first one … this will be a fast mover …

  195. timemchoy says:

    why would they shut it down because of a few?? that makes no sense at all?!!! its very popular and i doubt that is the case! after all were just talking weather correct??? i mean come on ted how controversial can weather chat be??! lol

  196. JAmbrose says:

    That would be sad … there are many people in this blog that I consider to be very knowledgeable mets … I would be sad to see it get shutdown … It is always fun to get peoples opinions regaurding new england weather !!!

  197. MetoNorth says:

    WoW another snowstorm on tap for the Cape! Hope that they like snow down there!
    A week from now–through the second week of January–big temp spike. What a waste of cold air this month!!

  198. BaileyMan says:

    just a note not my forecast yet but, if the latest 18z gfs was correct it would be about a 14 hour event with strong winds and 5 to 9 inches west or 128 to worcester and 8 to 12 boston south and east! winds gusting to 60 plus on coast and 40 plus to worcester for a time it would be a powerful storm!
    if it were to slow just a tad and move slightly west which is possible we would be talking 12 to 17 boston west and somewhat less due to possible mix on cape

  199. JAmbrose says:

    Ole man winter has a long way to go before we can write this off as another below average winter … I am sure this storm is going to flip one or two more times before it is settled … beginning to lean more towards ots trend with latest runs … but as we all know this can change !!!

  200. JAmbrose says:

    Baileyman I would like to see if your forcast pans out … would be nice to see a moderate storm play out … just don’t see it at this point as most models are starting to agree with an ots trend … with the next couple of runs if they begin to trend all the same I would have to go with a couple of inches at best … cape and the islands will have the best chance on the front end of storm to pick up 6 plus … but will change over to rain !!!

  201. hcarool says:

    Can anyone explain to me that why every met is calling this storm offshore? I thought they based the better part of their forecast on Euro, and I also thought Euro was showing this storm go inside the benchmark.

    1. Longshot says:

      They’re averaging the models which are in agreement. Treating the EURO as an outlier.

  202. Jeffrey Silverberg says:

    How come Ron is the only one getting info from Paul Kocin????

  203. Ted says:

    harvey saying be snows for boston

  204. philip says:

    Todd said at 6:00 more melting…I guess there goes my (White) Christmas morning. I can’t complain since I have alot to be thankful for this year. :-)

    1. philip says:

      Wait ’til next year on the White Christmas…I have a good feeling that the winter 2011-2012 will be excellent for snow lovers.

  205. hcarool says:

    Longshot, why are they treating Euro as an outlier? Are there possibilities that the GFS or other models might trend westward?

  206. retrac says:

    boy that’s close

  207. JimmyJames says:

    Hcarool the models are going to do their usual flip flopping. What I am looking for now is are trends developing here or are they going to continue going back and forth. I am still thinking at 2 on the SNOW INDEX meaning MODERATE Snowfall but that could change so stay tuned!

  208. hcarool says:

    JimmyJames, can you specify where your 2 on the snow index will apply to? Around western New England?

  209. stebet123 says:

    As it appears now, heavy snow would miss the swath from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia and New York City Sunday into Sunday night.

    It seems an all-out blizzard will unfold Monday in southeastern New England. latest from accu weather

  210. JimmyJames says:

    Hcarool 2 is a MODERATE Snowfall of 4-10 inches on the Snow Index. I am think right now Worcester east but again this is just my initial thoughts and will probably change.

  211. philip says:

    Jimmy, is your SNOW INDEX for the late weekend storm regionwide?

  212. philip says:

    stebet…IMO it is not a good idea for AW to start using the “B” word at this very early stage.

  213. JimmyJames says:

    For now but as we get closer I am going to try like I did with the Monday snow issue numbers for areas of Southern New England. RIght now the 2 is for everyone since there is POTENTIAL I feel for a MODERATE snowfall in the places I mentioned in my previous post.

  214. leo says:

    I live in East Bridgewater about 30 miles south south east of Boston. Looking forward to some possible heavy snows Sunday night.

  215. cat966G says:

    12z uk model has us getting nailed is this todays 12 z or yesterday dont know the run times??

    1. cat966G says:

      Sorry was looking at the euro not yhe uk model

  216. metking says:

    my lean on this storm is much weaker/OTS. i suspect the euro/gfs are artificially inflating strength on account of the complex jet stream dynamics shaping up just off the coast. if the euro persists with this set-up tonight/tmr, i will have to recalibrate. that said, i see this as nothing more than a fast-moving (potentially deepening) low. on strength alone, it might be able to put down 10 inches somewhere but the feature to the SW will scoot this sucker out no matter what i believe.

  217. crashralph says:

    Any further comments from Paul Kocin on this potential blockbuster!!!!!

  218. hcarool says:

    crashralph, I think ron was mentioning Paul Kocin just to get attention. I was watching TWC when he commented and didn’t see any of Paul Kocin’s comments.

  219. Scott says:

    the 18z GFS was a good run, hopefully thats the trend with the rest of the models :)

  220. crashralph says:

    Hcarool thanks for the heads up I should have know better!!!

  221. hcarool says:

    Scott, doesn’t 18z GFS lacks data or something? I heard you can trust that run.

  222. Ron says:

    Waiting for paul kocin at top of the hour on weather channel

  223. ron says:

    last night he was on weather channel 2,tonight im not sure will check both

  224. Eric says:

    i think todd gutner is watching the bruins right now,what a life

  225. Storm says:

    Ron,

    I’m waiting for Santa Claus at 15 past the hour

  226. Storm says:

    I know I am watching the Bruins and waiting for Santa

  227. JimmyJames says:

    Well Ron keep us informed what Paul Kocin says.

  228. BaileyMan says:

    first i did not say my earlier blog was a forecast actually i was simply stating that if the latest 18z GFS run pans out…it would be a significant storm note that the latest run is just a tad to the east of the benchmark so it is clearly closer to the coastline then the prior run also, it is a few hours less progressive!

    however i did Not give a forecast yet awaiting tomorrow am to make my specific call however, although the uppper level atmospheric players are ripe for earlier phasing then the last storm and i suspect a direct hit will be a sizeable dump of snow and powerful winds for the coast or SNE i would love to see the high pressure over southeastern Canada move a tad further east and come up a few inches higher on the barametric pressure scale to help slow this potential monster down enough to stack vertically and close off earlier enough to create its own niche in the atmosphere!! haaaaa! it is possible if everything fell into place even a 15 hour event could dump about 15 inches somewhere in central of eastern portions of SNE slow it down another 4 to 6 hours maybe 20 inches?!! get the picture??? anyway i am new to this blog not to forecasting!! but i am 1 for 1 in forecasting storms here! that is 100%~~~~
    gpomg fpr 2 and 2 tomorrow when i give my detailed forecast which may be less but…i still hold hope because the baby may explode even if it is progressive! late sunday and monday storm however so we have alot to decipher before its finalized! have a great nite all!

  229. Storm says:

    Paul jsut gave his take at the top of the hour on TWC SNE England dumping of snow. Paul Goodloe that is

  230. crashralph says:

    Paul Goodloe did not say that eaither, he said that if you were here yesterday at this time we thought a good 70 million would be affected by this storm. Now they think the storm will be wide right by about 200 miles further east affecting less people. Now in time this will change as I think the track is still up in the air!!!

  231. Storm says:

    I disagree with you. If you looked at the white zone on his new map eastern new england especially cape cod were still in that zone. Again still subject to change!!!

  232. Scott says:

    the 00z runs will probably tell a lot. the 00z NAM could be the start

  233. carshralph says:

    Storm I hear ya with the diagram he showed but he didn’t allude to New England getting a good dumping of snow. We were barely in the snow zone he showed. Now the WC will waffle on their maps atleast 2 more times as this situation is still unravaling Now what I believe is that we will get a good blast of snow from this storm. My initial thoughts at this time is atleast 1 foot for the boston area. Like I always say in time we will know

  234. Jeffrey Silverberg says:

    These storms just do not phase and bomb out like the superstorm.everything must be perfectly timed or its just a lot of noise over nothing. It will happen again but who knows when!!!

  235. Storm says:

    Crashralph I hear you 2!! I tthink someone gets a foot outta this. Wouldnt it be funny if this thing goes out to sea but the northern Low bombs out Tuesday on the midatlantic coast and gets us!!! Food for thought

  236. southshoretom says:

    here’s my take on Sunday-Monday……moderate to heavy snowfall southeast of a line from New Bedford to Plymouth…..lighter snows to hit Worcester and Boston

    a three or four day window middle to late next week to get some moderation in temperature

    early January, NAO becomes strongly negative again….this time with colder high pressure in eastern Canada that supplies cold air to New England while occasional low pressure areas pass just to the south of our area.

    In case I dont have a chance to blog the next few days…. Merry Christmas to all !!!!!!

  237. Storm says:

    Merry Xmas and Happt Holidays to everyone here too!!!

    Heres to a safe and festive hoilday

  238. Scott says:

    sst, there are signs of a warm up for early Jan, probably will be brief, then after that, possibly we get back into this same old pattern, or cold and snowy :)

  239. Storm says:

    Heres to cold and snowy

  240. Storm says:

    At least with the cold I can go Ice fishing

  241. JimmyJames says:

    Happy Holidays Storm, SouthshoreTom, and everyone else. THINK SNOW!!!

  242. Storm says:

    U KIDDING ME i AM DOING MY SNOW DANCE RIGH NOW. MY FREINDS AND FAMILY WHO DONT WANT IT TO SNOW THINK i AM NUTS. Anything to get it to snow!!!!

  243. Scott says:

    00z NAM is being released as i type

  244. Storm says:

    Everyone Chant Snow,Snow,SNow

  245. strye44 says:

    Hi Storm, I am chanting

  246. hcarool says:

    SNOW! ALL OUT BLIIZZARD! STORM OF THE LIFETIME!

  247. Storm says:

    Its working!!!!

  248. Storm says:

    I can feel yje power of the force

  249. Scott says:

    the NAM is taking its sweet time coming out

  250. crashralph says:

    lol u guys are a riot 2nite

  251. Hadi says:

    Entertaining blog tonight. All snow lovers have no fear it will snow bc I am heading out of town, even though only up to Maine. Just kidding but probably a good forecast.

  252. Storm says:

    Gotta have some fun !!! Its mandatory

  253. Storm says:

    It will snow on me in Wareham first though!!! Then you can have it in Maine too!!

  254. Scott says:

    ever since henry has posted about his “big daddy” thoughts, this storm has taken a awful turn for snow lovers, as we have predicted…

  255. snowyman says:

    the 12z and the 00z are showing a hugggge storm!

  256. Scott says:

    well this is the 00z NAM at hour 60, so far looks better than the 18z NAM

  257. Storm says:

    Out sea or impacting us here in New England

  258. JimmyJames says:

    Scott when Henry calls for a big daddy it never happens. He is entertaining to watch and like I said earlier one day he m ight be right.

  259. Hadi says:

    NAM is looking way south and out to sea at 60hrs. Let’s see what the rest of the run has to say, but remember Barry said not to trust the NAM outside of 36 hrs.

  260. hcarool says:

    Scott, hour 66 doesn’t look good however

  261. Scott says:

    oh…yea the NAM isnt good at all. still a bit long range for the NAM

  262. hcarool says:

    00Z NAM is slightly west than the previous run, but still out to sea.

  263. Storm says:

    Keep up with the snow Chant Cmon SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW

  264. Scott says:

    about 20 miles west, but i’ll take it. hopefully the 00z EURO is still consistent.

  265. snowyman says:

    hey scott i live in the cape ann area (i recall you do too?) but i think we are going to get snow either way.

  266. Scott says:

    yea i do live in the cape ann area, the NAM did suggest some snow to make it to us…heres the QPF

  267. Scott says:

    i definitely saw a tad shift to the west overall with that run.

  268. JimmyJames says:

    Were not going to know what this storm system is going to do until sometime Saturday and maybe a little later than that.

  269. Scott says:

    yep, just ever so nervous about it every day we get closer to the storm.

  270. Longshot says:

    On to the next blog

  271. metking says:

    the nam should not be discounted at this point. that is a viable run

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

More From CBS Boston

Summer of Savings
Download Weather App

Listen Live