To Trade Or Not To Trade Clay Buchholz? That Is Red Sox' Question
By Michael Hurley, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- There may be no more Shakespearean figure in Red Sox history than that of one Mr. Clay Daniel Buchholz. The tragic comedy that's played out over the past decade on the mound at Fenway Park has been, to put it succinctly, utterly captivating.
He's had his dazzling moments. The no-hitter in his second career start. The 9-0, 1.71 ERA start to 2013. A perhaps-not-dazzling but still-passable start on the road in Game 4 of the World Series. A 12-strikeout shutout in 2014 in Houston, near his hometown.
He's pitched nearly 1,200 innings, struck out 899 batters, won 81 games, made two All-Star games and won a World Series. He's done more in the big leagues than 99 percent of kids in Texas who pick up a baseball with dreams of making the majors.
At the same time, to put it bluntly, he has driven Red Sox fans mad. He hit the disabled list during his most successful season ever because he slept while holding his daughter in his arm. He's missed time due to esophagitis. His ERA has fluctuated unpredictably from season to season, going from 1.74 in 2013 to 5.34 the next year. He got busted for being egregious with his Bullfrog use. And he's never hesitant to talk about how well he executed his pitches, despite those pitches getting turned into rockets by opposing batters. "They just find some holes," he'll often say. That's a lot of holes.
The complete Buchholz Experience was on display this past October, in his lone postseason start of 2016. He pitched with moderate effectiveness for three innings before giving up a hit and a walk to start the fourth. He allowed a two-run single after a sacrifice bunt, and he escaped the fourth without further damage, still at just 75 pitches.
Despite the low pitch count, manager John Farrell (who knows Buchholz as a pitcher better than anyone) promptly removed him from the game. Drew Pomeranz came in to replace Buchholz and promptly served up a two-run home run to a 36-year-old light-hitting outfielder who had hit just three home runs off lefties all year.
And still, nobody questioned Farrell's hook. Everybody understood. That is the Clay Buchholz Experience, in a nutshell.
Now, with the three-headed monster of Chris Sale, David Price and reigning Cy Young winner Rick Porcello fronting the rotation, and with Dave Dombrowski citing a desire to get the Red Sox under the luxury tax threshold, the spotlight has centered directly on the back of Buchholz as a potential player to be shipped away as soon as possible by Boston.
And, not surprisingly, teams have already called the Red Sox about Buchholz's potential availability. And, according to The Boston Globe, the Red Sox have said he's available.
It presents the Red Sox with a conundrum of sorts. They can trade Buchholz, shed his $13.5 million salary, and trust the trio of Steven Wright, Eduardo Rodriguez and Drew Pomeranz can round out the final two spots in the rotation. Joe Kelly would likely be the first option out of the pen for spot starts if and when Wright/Rodriguez/Pomeranz suffer injuries or bouts of ineffectiveness.
Or, the Red Sox can keep Buchholz. Really, they know what to expect: roughly 20 starts, somewhere between 100-130 innings, an ERA in the 4's, and eight or so wins. Plus, last year Buchholz proved versatile and effective in his 16 appearances in relief, when he posted a 3.57 ERA and 1.103 WHIP over 22.2 innings.
It may not seem like much, but consider that Rodriguez only managed to make 20 starts last year, and his ERA was just percentage points better than Buchholz's. Pomeranz was woefully disappointing after shifting to the AL East, and though some of that was with good reason, he enters 2017 with obvious question marks surrounding him. And Wright is a 32-year-old knuckleballer who just set career highs in games started and innings pitched and whose effectiveness was very much a newfound development of 2016.
Trading Buchholz may well be the right move, if it allows the Red Sox to shed some salary and restock the prospect pool with a real player or two from a team that feels somewhat desperate to round out its rotation with a No. 4 or 5 starter.
But it also could prove problematic. If Rodriguez and Pomeranz struggle early, or if injuries hit the rotation, it could set the table for another revolving door of spot starters. Last year we all saw Kelly, Henry Owens, Roenis Elias and Sean O'Sullivan combine to start 16 games. They had a combined 10.65 ERA in those games. The team managed to go 10-6 in those games, but that's hardly a sustainable way to live.
Trading Buchholz would not represent the biggest risk; at least, it would not be comparable to the infamous Bronson Arroyo trade of 2006. That year, the Red Sox had 14 pitchers start games for them, with only Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling managing to start more than 24 games. Arroyo, meanwhile, led the NL in innings pitched that season.
No, there's little belief that Buchholz will replicate his 2013 first half performance and make the Red Sox rue the day they traded away the slender Texan.
Yes, there are certainly a fair number of folks in the greater Boston area who would be eager to hop in the car and drive Buchholz to Logan if it meant the end of his Red Sox tenure.
But the decision for Dombrowski and the Red Sox is not exactly so simple. With roughly the 26th-highest salary among starting pitchers, he's relatively affordable, and he's reliable enough to likely put forth a Buchholzian effort in 2017 at age 32.
Whether he does indeed get sent to a new town or ends up starting for the Red Sox in Detroit on the opening week of the season, the next chapter of the Buchholz story ought to be as captivating as ever.
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
