What Red Sox Realistically Need To Do In Order To Make Playoffs
By Michael Hurley, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- For two years, most Red Sox fans have asked for one simple thing: meaningful baseball in August and September. And with a little less than two months left to go in the 2016 season, that very low baseline standard appears to have been met.
As it currently stands, the 60-50 Red Sox are in the playoff picture, albeit not very comfortably. With the Orioles and Blue Jays in a virtual tie atop the AL East, one wild-card spot is currently owned by the lesser of those two teams; the other is being leased by the Red Sox. The Detroit Tigers are right there in a virtual tie with Boston, having one more win but also one more loss than the Red Sox. The Mariners aren't far behind, either.
It's not comfortable, but it's certainly an improvement. Last year on Aug. 9, the Red Sox were 50-62, stuck in last place in the division. On Aug. 9, 2014, they were 51-65, also in last place.
So, it's progress. But ultimately, if the Red Sox fall short of at least earning one of the wild-card spots, there won't be too many people around these parts who would consider the season to be a success.
And in that quest, there is some reason for optimism, but still some reason for doubt.
Current standings are by no means a guaranteed predictor of what will come in the future, but if the current pace holds true, the Red Sox will finish the season with 88 wins. Since the new playoff format was adopted in 2012, 88 wins in the American League have been enough to earn a team a playoff berth in two out of four seasons. The two years when 88 wins have been enough were last year and the year prior. In 2014, Oakland snagged the second wild-card spot with 88 wins, and last year it was the Yankees (87 wins) and Astros (86 wins) securing the wild-card spots.
In 2012 it took 93 wins to earn a wild-card berth, and in 2013 it took 92 wins.
The good news for Boston is that it doesn't appear as though 90 wins will be needed this year. Detroit is on pace for 88 wins, Seattle is on pace for 85, and Houston is pacing for 82. The Red Sox may not be exceptionally better than those teams, but they're also not really any worse.
So, for the Red Sox to finish with 88 wins, they'll need to finish the year going 28-24. It certainly seems feasible.
That's the good news for the Red Sox. The bad news is they're almost certainly going to have to be a better road team if they want to make the playoffs.
Of the Red Sox' remaining 52 games, 30 are on the road. And on the road this year, the Red Sox are just one game above .500, at 26-25.
Yet, in that bad news, there is good news. The Orioles have 25 games remaining at home and 26 on the road, but they're also seven games under .500 on the road. For all of Boston's mediocrity on the road, the Orioles have been much worse away from their home ballpark. In theory, at least, there is one team that faces an equally steep uphill climb to October.
Realistically, 88 wins will probably be enough to earn a spot, but given the volatility and unpredictability of the one-game playoff, that's hardly a comfortable position. If the Red Sox really want to make the playoffs -- as in, win the division -- then it's likely going to take a late-season surge, one that would probably have to include at least 10 wins in their 15 games against Baltimore and Toronto. Considering Boston is 10-13 against those two teams this year, and considering nine of those games will be on the road, and considering six will be in Baltimore, where the Orioles are absolutely dominant ... it might be best to curb any expectations for a Red Sox AL East title.
But the wild card very well should be in play, and it shouldn't require a massive change in performance from the Red Sox.
