By Terry Eliasen, Meteorologist, WBZ-TV Exec. Weather Producer

BOSTON (CBS) – The weather always seems to be a story one way or another on the 4th of July.

Perhaps the best example of this was just last year when the 4th of July celebration on the Esplanade was MOVED to the 3rd of July thanks to Tropical Storm Arthur. And even then we were sweating it out as some nasty thunderstorms out ahead of Arthur made for a close call. Immediately following the fireworks (which were moved up by about 30 minutes), spectators had to scatter and seek shelter as Mother Nature provided her own light show.

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People evacuated Esplanade ahead of storms, July 3, 2014. (Photo credit: Boston Globe)

People evacuated the Esplanade ahead of storms, July 3, 2014. (Photo credit: Boston Globe)

Thunderstorms and excessive heat are generally the two main concerns on Independence Day – if it ain’t one it is usually the other, and many times it is both! In fact, the hottest day ever recorded in Boston was on the 4th of July, way back in 1911 when the thermometer touched 104 degrees!

So this begs the question, what will this 4th of July bring?

We can cross off excessive heat.

Boston has yet to hit 90 degrees this year and there are no days even close in the immediate forecast. We are in for a string of days in the upper 70’s and low 80’s, Saturday included.

Oppressive humidity?

Nope. Dew points should stay in the relative “comfy” range (50’s) for the entire holiday weekend.

Thunderstorms?

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Unlikely. While it isn’t a totally clean and clear slam dunk pattern heading into the weekend, chances for any showers or storms appear to be very low at this time. I would say 10-percent or less right now.

Too good to be true?

Perhaps.  There are still several days before the big celebration. I wouldn’t expect any major changes to the forecast though, certainly no overwhelming heat or long lasting wet weather this year.

The official forecast:

Friday the 3rd:

Perhaps a bit of cloudiness in the early morning from a storm system passing well to our south, but otherwise mainly sunny and pleasant, low humidity and light winds.  Temperatures will be 75-to-80 degrees in the afternoon, but slightly cooler at the immediate coastline due to a gentle sea breeze.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

(WBZ-TV graphic)

Saturday the 4th:

A weak area of high pressure settles over New England, meaning lots of sunshine and dry air.  High temps in the afternoon should top out in the low 80’s with fairly low humidity. We have to watch our extreme western zones for an isolated pop-up shower or thunderstorm which could drift eastward late in the day, but I would rate that chance extremely low at this point. Winds will be very light, likely out of the south-southeast.

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