We know the story of this June…WET! One of the wettest on our recorded history! The .45″ of rain which has fallen at Logan since last night now makes this the 3rd wettest June on record with 10.32″ and counting heading into the weekend where we will likely climb into the #2 spot. Heavy rain moved into CT and Western MA last night with 1-2+” of rain. That energy shifted off the coast this morning with some early morning downpours.
A warm front is pushing through SNE this morning. Areas of dense fog have formed where temps are cooler with heavy marine air still in place. Warm humid air will win out today as winds shift from the east to the south as the warm front lift northward. Clouds will break behind the front as drier air will shift in behind with a SW flow aloft. Breaking sun will help temps to warm into the 70’s nearing 80. Any long lasting sun could see temps spike into the lwr 80’s, especially south. Meanwhile dewpoint temps will rise with the rising temps. A noticeable warm and more humid feel to the air as dewpoints will climb into the 60’s nearing 70. Muggy! Any sun will be added energy in place for any pop up PM T’storms to feed off of. The Severe Storms Prediction Center has part of SNE in a slight risk for severe storms with the primary risk of storms being damaging winds and torrential rain. The best chance of Severe weather will mostly be outside of 495. Because of the moisture in the air any storm which does form will come with heavy downpours and the potential for localized flooding. A flood watch is up through 6 PM.
Any scattered showers or storms will diminish tonight leaving cloudy skies and areas of dense fog with low temps and dewpoints remaining in the 60’s. Our weather this weekend is the kind of weather we can expect for much of the week ahead. It is a warm humid airmass stuck in place across the eastern seaboard thanks to a blocking high in the western Atlantic and a cutoff low with trough in the eastern half of the US. We are stuck between the two which is supplying a steady warm humid feed of moisture up the east coast. This steering flow will keep a front stalled over us or near us from the weekend into next week. Periodic showers and storms happen from time to time this weekend, with periods of some hazy sun if we are lucky with highs in the Lwr 80’s.
The western Atlantic ridge will begin to flex it’s muscle and actually begin to build westward by Wednesday & Thursday. This will push through with cooler air slightly farther west, meanwhile will bring in warmer air into the northeast with a better chance of at least some sunshine heading towards July 4th. It is an extremely unstable pattern loaded with moisture so when it rains it will pour. In these downpours there will be embedded thunderstorms and sometimes even some severe weather. By the time this week is through, we will likely pick up another 1-3″ of rain.
So when will the pattern break? Even though the trough west us will begin to lift and weaken, a summertime ridge should establish itself on the east coast after the 4th with a more stable pattern. But relief from the humidity? That may be asking a lot. The warmth and humidity is likely to stick around right through mid-July.