By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

BOSTON (CBS) – WBZ recently spoke with Accuweather Meteorologist Joe Bastardi and Meteorologist Joe D’Aleo about their thoughts on the upcoming winter. Clearly, a lot of this winter will be driven by the current strong La Nina that is forecasted to strengthen even more as we approach December.


Bastardi is calling this a “Monster La Nina.” This will have a major influence on our winter nationwide.

This La Nina has developed quick enough that its impacts should already be in place by December.

Joe Bastardi says he thinks this winter will get off to a fast start. “This may be a great winter for New England ski areas and northeast ski areas of the United States.”


Both Bastardi & D’Aleo see December into early January having the worst of the cold. “La Ninas are characterized by a northern storm track with cold weather in the west and northern states and warmer weather in the south,” explained Bastardi.

“We do anticipate that we will have above normal snow from Boston north, especially northern New England,” added D’Aleo.

Even though winter will come on strong, it won’t be cold the whole time.


A January thaw is likely, and this thaw could continue into February. Warm temperatures in the southeastern states may sometimes be directed northeast. How this warmth interacts with the cold could lead to storm development and more mixed or ice events.

In the end, the warmth and the cool will likely balance each other out for slightly above temperatures south of Boston, and slightly below north of the city.


Sea surface temperatures and ocean currents will dictate how far north the southern ridge can build and what the eventual storm track will look like.

Sea Surface temperatures in the North Atlantic and North Pacific play a critical role as well.

Colder water in the North Atlantic promotes pressures rising over Greenland. This can become a blocking high, which causes the jetstream to buckle, directs cold air into the US, and supplies the cold into storms which may come up the coast.

When this occurs, it is called a negative North Atlantic Oscillation.

When the North Atlantic is in its negative mode, that is when we tend to see our worst cold and snowy patterns. This state should last through December, but any change in this pattern could have drastic impacts, meaning less snow and more warmth as the winter moves on.


The winter of 2007-08 had a similar set up to what we have now, and that provided an all-time record snowfall to northern New England: 100 inches in Concord, NH; 103 inches in Burlington, VT; 129 inches in Penacook, NH; 69 inches in Worcester and 51 inches in Boston.

If we use this year as a guideline, and the winter goes as the experts believe, there could be above normal snowfall over 60-80 inches inland, with amounts dropping off to 40-50 toward the coast and 20 inches or less near the Cape.

The heaviest Snowfall is likely in northern New England with many ski areas seeing over 200 inches of snow – a typical New England winter.

Comments (20)
  1. southshoretom says:

    maybe the tropics are demonstrating the effects of a very strong la nina, allowing for potential development of disturbances in areas that should not be climatologically favorable,

  2. Longshot says:

    Interesting forecast to say the least.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      It’s pretty much the expected forecast given the prospects of La Nina. Joe D’Aleo will be presenting his forecast at the SNE Weather Conference soon!

  3. SurfSkiWeatherMan says:

    Sounds Fun! May we let them in on our snow bet?

  4. Topkatt88 says:

    I continue to be in complete agreement with Mr. D’Aleo. Good to see nothing has changed there. :-)

  5. JimmyJames says:

    The outlook has been consistent for the past couple of months. I think this will be a winter that comes in two waves with a fast start, a prolonged thaw lasting into the middle of February, and then return to winter for the rest of February into early March. I will my winter forecast for Southern New England in a few weeks.

  6. Ryan says:

    Sounds like I’ll be sending you quite a bit of snowfall reports this winter!

  7. JimmyJames says:

    Forgot and left out the thaw will start in early January.

  8. philip says:

    I will probably post my thoughts some time next week. I had fairly low numbers in mind, but now I may have to raise them…a bit. With such warmth for January and part of February I can’t in good conscience call for tons of snow especially in Boston and south.

  9. Hadi says:

    It sould be an interesting winter to say the least. Topkatt any reason they made the conference so late this year, in the past it has been in Oct?

  10. dedubew says:

    Wow! What a change in the website look. I didn’t know this was coming. Why change? Might this help weed out certain folks who can be outspoken on the blogs?

  11. weatherwizard says:

    The weather pattern could get quite interesting along the East Coast as we move towards the middle to the end of next week and then into the second week of November. The models, especially the GFS, continue to forecast a very amplified trough trying to get carved out along the East Coast. The GFS has a series of Low Pressure areas moving up along the East Coast beginning late next week. Each one of these areas of Low Pressure will pull down colder air, and the last one towards the middle of the month could be a snow maker for the Northeast.

  12. philip says:

    The fact that Melissa hasn’t produced a new blog for this morning means to me at least, that this new website still has a long way to go. I have seen TV station websites come and go, but this one is very frustrating.

  13. Longshot says:

    phillip, you are correct in my opinion. It needs a lot of fixes starting with the difficulty of finding and entering the blog.

  14. Old Salty says:


    The prospects of snow around here don’t look good due to the ocean surface temperatures. Currently, the 2 bouys off of Boston are reading 54.1 and 53.6 respectively. Unless a storm is positioned to give us a NNE or N wind OR unless we catch it on the backside with a NNW and NW wind, it isn’t going to happen anywhere near the coast. Perhaps well inland.

    Old Salty

  15. manowx says:

    I agree OS

    In addition to the Enso and the water temp there’s an abnormal solar forcing; and a ghg signal increasing all the time. %0 inches is too much for Boston

  16. manowx says:

    40 inches is too much for Boston

  17. manowx says:

    This means I disagree with JB and JD

  18. janet petronella says:

    well look at all the warm and or mild weather the northeast is having now,and so late into the fall,usually at this time of the year things are getting colder,now it getting warmer,i say the winter in new york and the northeastern states will be brutalized this winter.

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